PATRICK KINGSLEY2025年6月17日周日上午，以色列雷霍沃特市遭伊朗导弹袭击。 Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesWhen Israel and Iran clashed last year, they fought in short and contained bursts that usually ended within hours, and both sides looked for off-ramps that allowed tensions to ebb.去年以色列与伊朗发生冲突时，它们是以短促、克制的方式交战，通常在数小时内停火，而且双方都在寻找让紧张局势缓和下来的途径。Since Israel started a new round of fighting on Friday, the two countries have said they will continue for as long as necessary, broadening the scope of their attacks and leading to much higher casualty counts in both countries. This time, the conflict appears set to last for at least a week, with both Israel and Iran ignoring routes toward de-confliction.自从以色列上周五开始新一轮战斗以来，两国都已表示，只要有必要，就将继续战斗下去，双方扩大了打击范围，并导致伤亡人数大幅上升。这次冲突看来将至少持续一周，而且双方都对化解冲突的途径置若罔闻。Israel seems motivated to continue until the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, either by force or renewed negotiations. Yet Iran has shown no sign of voluntarily ending enrichment, a process crucial to building a nuclear bomb, and Israel has no known ability to destroy a pivotal enrichment site that is buried deep underground.以色列继续战斗似乎意在通过武力或重启谈判彻底摧毁伊朗的铀浓缩项目。但伊朗并未表现出自愿停止铀浓缩（制造原子弹的一个关键工序）的迹象，而以色列目前已知的军事能力尚无法摧毁一个深藏地下的关键铀浓缩设施。“We’re weeks rather than days away from this ending,” said Daniel B. Shapiro, who oversaw Middle Eastern affairs at the Pentagon until January.“这场冲突的结束需要数周而不是数天时间，”曾在五角大楼负责中东事务直至今年1月卸任的丹尼尔·夏皮罗表示。“Israel will keep going until, one way or another, Iran no longer retains an enrichment capability,” added Mr. Shapiro, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group. “It’s now clear that if Israel leaves this unaddressed, its campaign will have failed.”“以色列将继续行动，不管用什么方法，直到让伊朗不再拥有铀浓缩能力为止，”夏皮罗补充道，他现在是华盛顿研究机构大西洋理事会的研究员。“现已清楚的是，如果以色列不解决这个问题，它的军事行动将是失败的。”While Israel has easily struck Iran’s main enrichment site at Natanz, central Iran, it lacks the American-made “bunker-buster” bombs needed to destroy a smaller subterranean site dug deep into a mountain near Fordo, northern Iran. Israeli officials hope that their strikes on other targets — including Iran’s top military commanders, nuclear scientists and its energy industry — will inflict enough pain to encourage Iran to willingly end operations at Fordo.虽然以色列轻而易举地打击了位于伊朗中部纳坦兹的主要铀浓缩设施，但它缺乏摧毁伊朗北部福尔多附近深山中的一个小型地下设施的武器：美国制造的“碉堡克星”炸弹。以色列官员希望，他们打击其他目标——包括伊朗最高军事指挥官、核科学家及能源产业——的行动能给伊朗带来足够的痛苦，促使它自愿结束福尔多设施的运行。For now, Iran seems far from such a capitulation, even if Israel has shown increasing dominance in Iranian airspace, according to Sanam Vakil, who leads analysis of the Middle East at Chatham House, a London-based research group. Though Israel hopes to prompt its collapse, the Iranian government remains in full control of Iran and still has substantial stocks of ballistic missiles, even if Israel has limited its ability to fire some of them.就目前而言，伊朗远未表现出屈服的迹象，尽管以色列在伊朗领空的主导地位日益明显，这是伦敦皇家国际事务研究所的中东问题研究主管萨纳姆·瓦基尔的看法。虽然以色列希望促成伊朗政权的崩溃，但伊朗政府仍牢牢掌控着国内局势，并且仍拥有大量的弹道导弹库存，即使以色列已削弱了其部分发射能力。“I don’t see any surrender coming from Tehran right now — there are no white flags being waved,” said Dr. Vakil. “It’s very hard to see Iran walking back its enrichment rights while Iran’s program still looks operational and Iran is intact as a state,” she added. “Their goal is to survive, to inflict damage and show their resilience.”“目前看不到德黑兰有任何投降的迹象，没有人在摇白旗，”瓦基尔说。“在伊朗的核项目看来仍在运行、国家体系完好的情况下，很难看出伊朗会放弃铀浓缩的权利，”她补充道。“他们的目标是生存下去，（让以色利）遭受破坏，展示他们的韧劲。”Much depends on how President Trump reacts. Unlike Israel, the United States has the munitions and the aircraft to destroy Fordo. Analysts like Mr. Shapiro say that Mr. Trump could consider such an approach if Iran chooses to accelerate its efforts to build a nuclear bomb instead of reaching a compromise.局势很大程度上取决于美国总统特朗普如何反应。与以色列不同，美国已拥有摧毁福尔多核设施所需的炸弹和飞机。夏皮罗等分析人士指出，如果伊朗选择加速研制核弹，而不是达成妥协的话，特朗普可能会考虑采取行动。“That will create a critical decision point for Trump, about whether the United States should intervene,” Mr. Shapiro said.“这将在美国是否应该进行干预的问题上，给特朗普制造一个关键的决策点，”夏皮罗说。It may also now be easier for Mr. Trump to intervene without serious security consequences, given that Israel’s attacks have already degraded Iran’s defensive abilities.考虑到以色列的打击已削弱了伊朗的防御能力，对特朗普来说，现在也许更容易在不造成严重安全后果的情况下进行干预。Others say that Mr. Trump is likelier to avoid direct confrontation with Iran unless the Iranian military shifts its attacks from Israel to U.S. interests and personnel in the Middle East, narrowing Mr. Trump’s room for maneuver. Since Friday, Iran has avoided providing such a pretext for U.S. involvement, and has also avoided attacks on the U.S.’s other allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.不过也有人认为，除非伊朗军方将攻击目标从以色列转向美国在中东的利益和人员，从而压缩特朗普的回旋余地，否则他更可能会避免与伊朗的直接对抗。自上周五以来，伊朗一直避免为美国的介入提供此类借口，并已避免打击美国在该地区的其他盟友，包括沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋。The president’s statements since Friday indicate that his current preference is to use Israel’s military gains as leverage for renewed talks with Tehran.特朗普自上周五以来的表态显示，他目前倾向于把以色列的军事成果用作与德黑兰重启核谈判的筹码。德黑兰的一块广告牌上承诺对以色列的打击进行报复。For months, Mr. Trump has overseen negotiations with Iran, hoping that Tehran would agree to end its enrichment program without Israel’s military intervention.数月来，特朗普一直在主导与伊朗的谈判进程，希望伊朗政府在无需以色列军事干预的情况下同意结束本国的铀浓缩项目。Those talks stumbled after Iran refused to back down. In comments over the weekend, Mr. Trump suggested that Iran, chastened by Israel’s attacks, might finally make compromises that its had not previously considered. As a result, some analysts say that Mr. Trump could press Israel to end its attacks — when and if he judges that Iran has become more malleable.伊朗拒绝让步后，这些谈判陷入了僵局。特朗普在周末发表的言论中暗示，在以色列的军事打击威慑下，伊朗也许最终会做出其此前不予考虑的妥协。因此，一些分析人士称，如果特朗普判定伊朗的态度已趋软化，他可能会向以色列施压，让其停止军事打击。“This will end when Trump decides to end it, which will probably happen when he thinks Iran is ready to compromise,” said Yoel Guzansky, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.“这场冲突的终结将取决于特朗普的决断，而这很可能在他认为伊朗做好了妥协的准备后发生，”特拉维夫的国家安全研究所伊朗问题专家约尔·古赞斯基说。Such a U-turn has historical precedent, even if it feels unlikely for now, experts said. The Iranian leadership made a similarly unexpected compromise at the end of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, according to Meir Javedanfar, who teaches Iranian studies at Reichman University in Israel. After rejecting numerous offers to end the war, Ayatollah Khomeini eventually agreed to a deal after the costs of the war became too great, Dr. Javedanfar said.专家表示，这种180度的大转弯在历史上不是没有先例，尽管目前看来不太可能。据以色列赖希曼大学讲授伊朗研究课程的教授梅尔·贾维丹法尔说，伊朗领导人曾在20世纪80年代两伊战争结束时做出过类似地出人意料的妥协。当时伊朗曾多次拒绝了结束战争的提议，但在战争的代价变得难以承受后，阿亚图拉·霍梅尼最终同意了停火协议，贾维丹法尔说。“Khomeini made a 180-degree change,” he said. “This is again what Israel is hoping for.”“霍梅尼做了个180度的大转变，”他说。“这也正是以色列现在所希望的。”But history also suggests this may take time. The deal that ended the Iran-Iraq war took eight years to reach.但历史也表明，这可能需要时间。结束两伊战争的协议用了八年时间才达成。Gabby Sobelman自以色列雷霍沃特、Myra Noveck自耶路撒冷、Johnatan Reiss自特拉维夫对本文有报道贡献。Patrick Kingsley是时报耶路撒冷分社社长，领导时报对以色列、加沙和西岸的报道。翻译：Cindy Hao点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site