BTC Top (a study of SMA as peak indication)Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDSNOGYIt is true that 200 weekly SMA crossing the ATH has been a strong indicator of Cycle 1 peak and the Cycle 2 peak, however Cycle 3 peak has occured before this cross. The SMA was 17358 while the prior ATH was 19804.The cycle 3 top happened 2 months prior to 200 Weekly SMA hitting the prior ATH. Waiting for the 200 weekly SMA would have afforded only a 45k exit opportunity. this indicates that while 200 SMA is a signal that is worth tracking in and of itsself prior to more neuances are introducted it is hard to use it as a precise predictor. Possible refinements include: -the time divergence of the ATH-SMA cross its slef may form a predicatable pattern in other words SMA crossing happens 1 week prior at ATH and at the ATH and thn then 2 months later in consquitive cyles possibly indicating that the SMA cross may happen at 6 mo after the new peak at the cyle 4 predicted be at Q3 or Q4 of 2025. -The prior ATH should not be taken too literally and instead another metric around the prior ATH should be the linchpin level- eg the medium of the weekly candle that contains the ATH We formulated new hypotheses for future research: The first one is studied here: -With the advent of more capital, the memory that the average investor works with is reduced. Or put in a different way the more the deployed capital to the asset the less patient it gets on average and a greater sense of "urgency to reallocate" arises -If we were to model BTC USD price in the image of a logarithmic decaying population growth of fish in a pond that may experience regualtion of population such as over population leading to population decline can we arrive at new ways to predict? -If we were to think of the logarithmic channel are there reactions as the population arrives near the carrying capacity of the time Conculsions: 210+ SMA crossing prior ATH indicates the turning point (peak) for cycle 1 (not calculable on tradingview due to price history limits) 200 SMA crossing prior ATH indicates the turning point (peak) for Cycle 2 159 SMA crossing prior ATH indicates the turning point (peak) for Cycle 3. (This was the highest number of week count for the SMA that crosses the prior ATH is 159. This indicates that a decline in the week count of the SMA in consecutive cycles. The reduction of the SMA week count would mean that there is less need to pay attention to "more ancient" history when looking at assessing the peak of the current cycle. The reduction in the SMA week count could imply something similar to that of "delayed crossing" because more days would need to elapse at the higher prices for the 200 weekly average to achieve the crossing If we were to consider a decay function of 220 to -200- 159- we could anticipate a more than 40 possibly 60 day reduction to the day count of the SMA indicating a 150-120 week SMA as a possible signal. This would indicate that there is a greater chance that even the100 SMA could also carry some signal value for marking the peak for the current cycle (cycle 4) ALERT 100 SMA is at 65k and the ATH with a small top wick is at 68k. This means that even if the price did not materially change in less than 4-10 weeks we could have the 100 SMA pass the prior ATH.