Fiber holds Bullish (but not for long)Euro / US DollarEASYMARKETS:EURUSDS-Atrial## 1 Hour (Intraday) ! 1. **Order-block / Fair-Value Gap** * The small 1H consolidation you’ve boxed (roughly 1.1420–1.1450) is a late-hour fair-value gap (FVG) that often resolves with a quick run to its edge. * A drop into the lower end (1.137–1.138) gives you liquidity for your long and aligns with the 1D 50 % retrace (1.13475). 2. **Pending Entries** * **Buy-limit @ 1.1300**: Still unfilled. If price dips there, it converges the 1D 62 %–70.5 % zones (1.1312–1.1287) plus the old daily high → high-probability long. * **Sell-limit @ 1.1600**: Above today’s high, overlapping the 6 M FVG at 1.1575 and the 3 M opposing block. 3. **Probability & Timeline** * **To 1.1300**: \~30 % shot over the next 24–48 h as banks chase stops under 1.135. * **To 1.1600**: \~25 % chance intraday if FOMC jitters push USD weaker post-June 18. --- ## 1 Month (Position) ! 1. **Longer-term Fib & Time-zones** * The full trough-to-peak fib (0 %→100 %) defines the 127 % extension at \~1.310, 227 % at \~1.214, 327 % at \~1.246. * Your current clip sits just above the 127 % (1.310) retracement zone on a mini scale; the next *real* hurdle is the 227 % zone near 1.214/1.234 (old highs). 2. **Macro-Blocks** * **3-month OB @1.1600**, **6-month FVG @1.1575**: your first “stop‐runs” on the way to the big opposing block at 1.2750 (500 %). * Seasonal tailwinds tend to kick in around July–August as EU carry trades re-enter. 3. **Timeline & Odds** * **Lift into 1.1575–1.1600**: \~60 % chance by late June → early July. * **Extension toward 1.214–1.234** (long-term target): \~30 % chance by Q4 2025, assuming US yields peak and EUR carry resumes. --- ### Live-Data Check (Today ≈ 1.1415) * **Above 1.1375** (daily 50 %) → bullish tilt until proven otherwise. * **Below 1.1450** (1H FVG top) → still in consolidation zone; gives you a low-risk long if you see a wick down to 1.137–1.138. * **No invalidation**: you’ve got room to run both your buy and sell limits without being stopped out today. --- ## Overall Probability & Path | Leg | Zone | Prob. | Target Window | | -------------- | --------------------------- | ----- | -------------- | | Intraday sweep | 1.137→1.145 consolidation | 70 %↑ | next 1–2 days | | Buy-zone test | 1.1300 (62–70 % daily fib) | 30 % | next 24–48 h | | Swing rally | 1.1575–1.1600 (6 M FVG/OB) | 55 % | June 18–July 5 | | Position drive | 1.214–1.234 (227–327 % fib) | 30 % | Q3–Q4 2025 | 1. **Catalysts**: * **June 18 FOMC** (watch the red line) will likely ignite the swing leg. * **July seasonal flows** (month-end rebalancing) give the first bump into your fair-value blocks. 2. **Risk management**: * Keep your stops below 1.1340 for intraday longs, or below 1.1250 for the monthly swing. * Scale out 50 % at 1.1575, trail the rest into the big opposing block. --- — S.Atrial