The Bank of Canada likes to keep the market guessing.The Fed seems to think it has a solemn responsibility to never make an unexpected move but the BOC doesn't share that view, that's why we often get surprises and an uncertain market into rate decisions.Today's 10 am ET announcement is no exception as the market is pricing in a 26% chance of a cut, with the remainder positioned for a hold.The probabilities had favored a cut two weeks ago but Canadian inflation data ran hot and last week's GDP was the nail in the coffin at 2.2% vs 1.7% expected. Still, the trade is a big source of uncertainty in Canada and the housing market is struggling. The Toronto Real Estate Board today reported condo sales down 25% y/y and detached home sales down 10.6% y/y with prices 5-6% lower. In April-May combined, the sales of all homes were down 17.1% y/y and inventory continues to far outstrip sales.So there is a case for a pre-emptive cut, though I would note that this report about a potential US-Canada trade deal has gotten surprisingly little attention. If a deal is struck, it would leave Canada in a plum position in terms of access to the US market and certainty on trade. It would be a big tailwind for the loonie and could leave the BOC sidelined for a more-extended period.As it stands now, the market is expecting a 71% chance of a cut at the July 30 meeting and has priced in 42 bps of additional easing this year. I don't see the BOC offering a strong signal on what it will be doing next, so those numbers might not see a big swing.However I will be watching for inflation commentary as prices have fallen back below 2%. I'll be interested to hear how sustainable that is from the BOC's perspective.All told, I don't see big risks for the loonie today but if there is no move on rates then I expect some downside in USD/CAD as that 26% is priced out. With that, the level to watch will be 1.3672, which was last week's low and the lowest since October. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.