NASDAQ 100 TRADING PLAN

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NASDAQ 100 TRADING PLAN US 100CAPITALCOM:US100EliteMarketAnalysis1 ⸻ 🧠 US100 Multi-Timeframe Playbook (W1 → D1 → H4 → M30 → M5) ⸻ 🔹 Higher Timeframe Context WEEKLY (Strong Uptrend): • Key Levels: – ATH supply: 22,800–23,000 – Support shelf (prior resistance): 22,100–22,200 – 50-SMA: 20,400 – 200-SMA: 16,100 • Summary: Bullish structure is intact as long as price holds above 22,100–22,200 and the long-term trendline. DAILY (Bullish but stretched): • Key Levels: – Upper Bollinger Band: 23,025 – Mid-band & 20-SMA: 22,430 – 50-SMA: 21,985 • Summary: RSI at 66 and MACD > 0 but flattening. This suggests bullish momentum may be cooling — odds of a pause or pullback rising. 4-HOUR (Wedge – Late-Trend Exhaustion Risk): • Key Levels: – Rising wedge: upper rail ≈ 23,200, lower ≈ 22,450 – 8-EMA: 22,655 | 21-EMA: 22,425 – Anchored VWAP (from June low): 22,350 • Summary: Ribbon still bullish, but volume and MACD momentum are plateauing. A break below 22,450/VWAP confirms a corrective leg. 30-MINUTE (Neutral to Weak): • Key Levels: – Descending micro-trendline: 22,725 – Rising support: 22,690 – Session range: High = 22,845 | Low = 22,690 • Summary: Price is coiled near the apex. EMAs curling downward. Market decision point imminent. 5-MINUTE (Immediate Bear Bias): • Key Levels: – Live VWAP: 22,752 – 9-EMA sloping down – Stochastic: mid-range • Summary: Price remains below VWAP and 9-EMA. Short-term sellers in control unless VWAP is reclaimed. ⸻ 📈 Trade Setups 1. Swing Long – Buy the Dip • Let price wash through 22,450–22,350 (H4 wedge floor + VWAP zone) • Enter if: – 30m bullish engulfing or hammer closes back above 22,450 – AND 5m VWAP is reclaimed • Initial Stop: Below liquidity sweep or 22,300 – whichever is lower – minus 0.25 × ATR(14, H4) ≈ 30 pts → around 22,270 • Targets: – T1: 22,845 – T2: 23,200 – Leave runner for blue-sky continuation • Comment: With weekly trend. Wait for deep retracement. Great RR ≈ 1:3+ ⸻ 2. Intraday Short – Mean Reversion • Trigger Zone: 22,725–22,760 (broken trendline + 5m VWAP) • Enter if: – 5m rejection wick or bearish engulfing forms on avg+ volume • Stop: Above 22,800 + buffer (≈ 22,820) • Targets: – T1: 22,600 – T2: 22,450 – Optional T3: 22,350 (VWAP) • Comment: Counter-trend, so treat as scalp. Tight stops. Demand at least 1:2 RR. ⸻ 3. Breakout Long – Trend Continuation • Entry Criteria: – 30m close above 22,845 with 150%+ average volume – 5m bull flag holds above breakout level • Stop: – First 30m candle close back inside the range – Or 22,770 (flag base) — whichever happens first • Targets: – T1: 23,025 (Daily BB) – T2: 23,300 (measured move) • Comment: Only take if strong volume confirms new participation. Avoid during Asia or illiquid hours. ⸻ ⚙️ Execution & Risk Guidelines • Risk per trade: ≤ 1% account (limit counter-trend trades to 0.5%) • Sizing formula: Contracts = Account Risk / (Stop pts × $ per pt) • ATR reference: – ATR(14, H4) ≈ 120 pts – ATR(14, 30m) ≈ 80 pts • Move stop to break-even once price moves 0.75 × stop distance in your favor • Never run trades #2 and #3 at the same time → directional conflict • Watch out for macro data (e.g., NFP, CPI) — can override intraday structure ⸻ ⏱ What to Watch (In Sequence) 1.Overnight – Does price stay pinned below the 30m 21-EMA, or start to float above it? 2.London Open – First test of the 22,725–22,760 zone: fade or reclaim? 3.NY Open – Volume surge confirms either breakout (#3) or fade setup (#2) 4.End of Day – A close below 22,450 on volume = deeper pullback risk toward 22,000 next week ⸻ 🔍 Final Thoughts The trend is still your friend — but the daily and H4 chart are stretched. Let the trade come to you: • Buy the flush only if we dip into confluence support and reclaim key levels (#1) • Buy the breakout only if high volume confirms continuation (#3) • Everything in-between is a scalp fade (#2) — execute cleanly, with defined risk, and respect trend structure. This is for educational purposes. Fit these into your system and risk tolerance. ⸻