DAVID E. SANGER, JONATHAN SWAN2025年6月18日逃离德黑兰的伊朗人在加油站排起了长队，摄于周一。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesWASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is weighing a critical decision in the days-old war between Israel and Iran: whether to enter the fray by helping Israel destroy the deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which only America’s biggest “bunker buster,” dropped by U.S. B-2 bombers, can reach.华盛顿——特朗普总统正在权衡一个关键决定：是否介入以色列和伊朗之间已进行了几天的战斗，帮助以色列摧毁位于伊朗福尔多深埋地下的铀浓缩设施——这只有美国的B-2战略轰炸机投掷的巨型钻地弹“碉堡克星”才可以做到。If he decides to go ahead, the United States will become a direct participant in a new conflict in the Middle East, taking on Iran in exactly the kind of war Trump has sworn, in two campaigns, he would avoid. Iranian officials have warned that U.S. participation in an attack on its facilities will imperil any remaining chance of the nuclear disarmament deal that Trump insists he is still interested in pursuing.如果特朗普决定那样做的话，美国将成为中东地区一场新冲突的直接参与者，与伊朗进行一场他在两次总统大选中都誓言要避免的那种战争。伊朗官员们已警告称，若美国参与打击伊朗设施的行动，将彻底扼杀特朗普声称自己仍有意推进的核裁军协议残存的希望。Trump has encouraged Vice President JD Vance and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to offer to meet the Iranians this week, according to a U.S. official. The offer may be well received, and Trump said Monday that “I think Iran basically is at the negotiating table, they want to make a deal.”据一名美国官员称，特朗普已鼓励副总统万斯和白宫中东特使史蒂夫·维特科夫提出本周与伊朗人见面的建议。该提议也许会获得积极回应，特朗普周一曾表示，“我认为伊朗基本上已坐到谈判桌上来，他们想达成协议。”The urgency appeared to be rising. The White House announced late Monday that Trump was leaving the Group of 7 summit early because of the situation in the Middle East.谈判的紧迫性似乎正在与日俱增。白宫在周一晚些时候宣布，由于中东局势，特朗普将提前离开七国集团峰会。“As soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something,” Trump said. “But I have to leave here.”“我一离开这里，我们就会干点什么，”特朗普说。“但我需要先离开这里。”What he intended to do remained unclear.他打算做什么仍不清楚。If Vance and Witkoff did meet with the Iranians, officials say, the likely Iranian interlocutor would be the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who played a key role in the 2015 nuclear deal with the Obama administration and knows every element of Iran’s sprawling nuclear complex. Araghchi, who has been Witkoff’s counterpart in recent negotiations, signaled his openness to a deal Monday, saying in a statement, “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.”官员们说，如果万斯和维特科夫的确与伊朗方面举行了会晤的话，对方最有可能出面的是外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇。他曾在2015年与奥巴马政府达成核协议上起过关键作用，对伊朗庞大的核设施了如指掌。最近几轮谈判一直在阿拉格奇和维特科夫之间进行，阿拉格奇周一已发信号表示对达成协议持开放态度，他在一份声明中说，“如果特朗普总统真心实意地致力于外交，有意停止这场战争的话，后续行动将至关重要。”“It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu,” he said, referring to the Israeli prime minister. “That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy.”“来自华盛顿的一个电话就能把内塔尼亚胡这样的人管住，”他提到以色列总理时说。“那也许为重返外交铺平道路。”But if that diplomatic effort fizzles, or the Iranians remain unwilling to give in to Trump’s central demand that they must ultimately end all uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the president will still have the option of ordering that Fordo and other nuclear facilities be destroyed.但如果外交努力失败，或伊朗人仍不愿屈服于特朗普的核心要求，那就是他们彻底必须停止在伊朗境内浓缩铀，特朗普仍可选择下令摧毁福尔多以及其他地方的核设施。伊朗的导弹已对几个以色列城市进行了打击，包括特拉维夫以东的贝内贝拉克。There is only one weapon for the job, experts contend. It is called the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or the GBU-57, and it weighs so much — 30,000 pounds — that it can be lifted only by a B-2 bomber. Israel does not own either the weapon or the bomber needed to get it aloft and over a target.专家们指出，只有一种武器能完成这项任务。它是代号GBU-57的巨型钻地弹，这种炸弹重达13.6吨，只有B-2战略轰炸机能运载它们。以色列没有这种武器，也没有将其运到目标上空所需的轰炸机。If Trump holds back, it could well mean that Israel’s main objective in the war is never completed.如果特朗普选择踌躇不前的话，那很可能意味着以色列这场战斗的主要目标永远无法实现。“Fordo has always been the crux of this thing,” said Brett McGurk, who worked on Middle East issues for four successive U.S. presidents, from George W. Bush to Joe Biden. “If this ends with Fordo still enriching, then it’s not a strategic gain.”“福尔多一直是这件事的关键，”布雷特·麦格克说，他曾在从乔治·W·布什到乔·拜登连续四任美国总统手下负责中东事务。“如果这场战斗结束，但福尔多仍在浓缩铀，那就不是一个战略收获。”That has been true for a long time, and over the past two years the U.S. military has refined the operation, under close White House scrutiny. The exercises led to the conclusion that one bomb would not solve the problem; any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew.这一判断长期成立。过去两年里，美国军队在白宫的密切监督下不断完善作战方案。演习得出的结论是：一枚炸弹解决不了问题；针对福尔多的打击需要轮流进行，一架B-2投下炸弹后，需要下一架B-2把炸弹投进同一个洞。而且，行动需要由美国飞行员和机组人员执行。This was all in the world of war planning until the opening salvos Friday morning in Tehran, Iran’s capital, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the strikes, declaring that Israel had discovered an “imminent” threat that required “preemptive action.” New intelligence, he suggested without describing the details, indicated that Iran was on the cusp of turning its fuel stockpile into weapons.这些计划原本仅停留在战争推演阶段，直到上周五上午，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡以发现了一个“迫在眉睫”的威胁为由下令采取“先发制人的行动”，对伊朗首都德黑兰发起攻击。他暗示新情报表明，伊朗即将把积累起来的核燃料转化为武器，但他没有透露细节。U.S. intelligence officials who have followed the Iranian program for years agree that Iranian scientists and nuclear specialists have been working to shorten the time it would take to manufacture a nuclear bomb, but they saw no huge breakthroughs.多年来一直跟踪伊朗核项目的美国情报官员一致认为，伊朗的科学家和核专家们一直在努力缩短制造核弹所需的时间，但他们还没有看到重大突破。美国总统特朗普周一在加拿大艾伯塔省的卡纳纳斯基斯。他需要权衡自己是否想让美国卷入伊朗与以色列的冲突。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesYet they agree with McGurk and other experts on one point: If the Fordo facility survives the conflict, Iran will retain the key equipment it needs to stay on a pathway to the bomb, even if it would first have to rebuild much of the nuclear infrastructure that Israel has left in ruins over four days of precision bombing.但他们与麦格克和其他专家在一个问题上意见一致：如果福尔多的核设施在冲突后继续存在下去，伊朗将在通往核弹的道路上保留所需的关键设备，即使伊朗将不得不先重建被以色列在四天的精确轰炸中摧毁的大部分核基础设施。Netanyahu has pressed for the United States to make its bunker busters available since the Bush administration, so far to no avail. But people who have spoken to Trump in recent months say the topic has come up repeatedly in his conversations with the prime minister. When Trump has been asked about it, he usually avoids a direct answer.内塔尼亚胡从布什政府起就一直要求美国向以色利提供“碉堡克星”，但到目前为止还未能如愿。但近几个月里与特朗普讨论过的人表示，这个话题在特朗普与内塔尼亚胡的交谈中反复出现。每当后者向特朗普提这件事时，特朗普通常避免直接回答。Now the pressure is on. Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who resigned in a split with Netanyahu, told CNN’s Bianna Golodryga on Monday that “the job has to be done, by Israel, by the United States,” an apparent reference to the fact that the bomb would have to be dropped by an American pilot in a U.S. airplane. He said that Trump had “the option to change the Middle East and influence the world.”压力持续升级。约阿夫·加兰特曾任以色列国防部长，后因与内塔尼亚胡意见不合辞职，加兰特周一在接受CNN记者比安娜·戈洛德里加采访时说，“这项任务必须完成，由以色列来完成，由美国来完成”，他显然是指“碉堡克星”需要由美国飞行员驾驶美国飞机去投。他称特朗普有“改变中东局势、影响世界的选项”。And Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who often speaks for the traditional, hawkish members of his party, said on CBS on Sunday that “if diplomacy is not successful” he will “urge President Trump to go all in to make sure that, when this operation is over, there’s nothing left standing in Iran regarding their nuclear program.”经常代表共和党的传统鹰派发言的南卡罗来纳州联邦参议员林赛·格雷厄姆周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的一个节目中说，“如果外交努力不成功”，他将“敦促特朗普总统采取一切办法，确保这次行动结束后，不给伊朗的核计划留下任何东西”。“If that means providing bombs, provide bombs,” he said, adding, in a clear reference to the Massive Ordinance Penetrator, “whatever bombs. If it means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”“如果这意味着提供炸弹，那就提供炸弹，”他补充道，显然是指“巨型钻地弹”。“不管是什么炸弹。如果这意味着与以色列人一起飞，那就与以色列人一起飞。”周日，驻守在雷霍沃特市的以色列士兵，该市此前遭到伊朗导弹袭击。But Republicans are hardly united in that view. And the split in the party over the decision of whether to make use of one of the Pentagon’s most powerful conventional weapons to help one of America’s closest allies has highlighted a far deeper divide. It is not only about crippling the centrifuges of Fordo; it is also about MAGA’s view of what kinds of wars the United States should avoid at all costs.但共和党人对这个问题的看法并非铁板一块。党内围绕着是否应该动用五角大楼最强大的常规武器之一支援亲密盟友的问题上所存在的分歧暴露出了更深层次的裂痕。这不仅关乎摧毁福尔多的离心机，也关乎MAGA（让美国再次伟大）支持者对美国应该不惜一切代价避免哪类战争的看法。The anti-interventionist wing of the party, given its most prominent voice by influential podcaster Tucker Carlson, has argued that the lesson of Iraq and Afghanistan is that there is nothing but downside risk in getting deeply into another Middle East war. On Friday, Carlson wrote that the United States should “drop Israel” and “let them fight their own wars.”共和党内反对干预的派系认为，伊拉克和阿富汗的教训表明，深度卷入又一场中东战争只会带来不利方面的风险，该派系的主要代言人是颇有影响力的播客主持塔克·卡尔森。卡尔森上周五写道，美国应该“不管以色列”，“让他们去打他们自己的仗。”For now, Trump can afford to keep one foot in both camps. By making one more run at coercive diplomacy, he can make the case to the MAGA faithful that he is using the threat of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator to bring the conflict to a peaceful end. And he can tell the Iranians that they are going to cease enriching uranium one way or the other, either by diplomatic agreement or because a GBU-57 imploded the mountain.就目前而言，特朗普仍然能游走于两派之间。通过再给强制性外交一次机会，他能让MAGA忠诚者们相信，他正在用巨型钻地弹的威胁让冲突和平地结束。同时，他告诉伊朗人，无论如何必须停止浓缩铀，要么通过外交协议，要么让GBU-57巨型钻地弹炸毁那座山。But if the combination of persuasion and coercion fails, he will have to decide whether this is Israel’s war or America’s.但如果把劝说和胁迫结合起来的手段失败的话，他将不得不决定，这是以色列的战争，还是美国的战争。德黑兰市中心的大巴扎，摄于周一。Farnaz Fassihi自纽约、Patrick Kingsley自耶路撒冷对本文有报道贡献。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。Jonathan Swan是时报白宫记者，负责报道特朗普政府。翻译：Cindy Hao点击查看本文英文版。