The former United States Secretary of Defense Gen James Mattis (retd) once said: “No war is over until the enemy says it’s over. We may think it over, but in fact, the enemy gets a vote.”Donald Trump would have no difficulty in agreeing with Mattis, who served in his cabinet through 2017 and 2018, on Tuesday. Rapid changes in the President’s mood from early morning to evening reflected his unhappiness at Israel and Iran for disobeying his order to stop the war.The day began with Trump’s jubilant announcement of a “complete and total ceasefire” after Israel and Iran had “wound down and completed their in-progress, final missions”. He congratulated “both Countries…on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR’”.He said Israel and Iran had gone to him “almost simultaneously, and said, “PEACE!””, and he had known that “the time was NOW”. The future for the two countries was “UNLIMITED, & filled with great PROMISE”, he said, and ended his post on Truth Social with “GOD BLESS YOU BOTH!”But his happiness and enthusiasm evaporated soon.As the fragile truce in the Middle East was tested, Trump posted urgently: “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”, signing off as “DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!”Some hours later, he addressed Israel directly: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES”.And as he spoke to reporters before leaving for the NATO summit in The Hague, Trump was frustrated enough to drop the F-word.Story continues below this adHe declared that he was “not happy” with both sides for violating the truce, but he was especially upset with Israel, which he said had launched huge strikes in response to a single Iranian missile launch that might have been unintentional.“I’ve got to get Israel to calm down now,” Trump said. The two countries, he said, had been fighting “so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f**k they’re doing,” he said before walking away to his helicopter.Two allies and the warOfficials said Trump was “exceptionally firm and direct” as he spoke with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from Air Force One as he flew to Europe. He had been hoping to go to the NATO summit with a peace deal to flaunt, and then coax the Europeans into committing to spending 5% of their GDP on defence.For Netanyahu, the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites with massive bunker buster bombs on June 22 was a major victory. He had been playing Trump for the previous week or so, after presenting the US with a fait accompli by attacking Iran even as talks between Tehran and Washington on a nuclear deal remained ongoing.Story continues below this adAfter Israeli war jets struck Iranian military targets and killed its top generals and scientists, Trump, after initial silence, started to claim credit for Israel’s military success and to support Netanyahu. This was a major boost for the Prime Minister – and as Israel established complete dominance over Iran’s air space, he was clearly back in business.Israel-Iran conflict | After the ceasefire, some questions that loom large for the AmericansGetting Trump to authorise the attacks on the nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan was Netanyahu’s ultimate success. He had pleaded with at least five US Presidents — including George W Bush in his second term — to give Israel the bunker busting bombs, but had hit a wall every time.Bibi has accomplished what many Israeli leaders have long desired – the degrading of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson announced on Tuesday: “Following the directive of the political echelon, the ceasefire came into effect this morning. As of now, I can say that the IDF has fully met all the objectives defined in Operation Rising Lion.”Trump has put Netanyahu on a leash for now, but given that the latter’s objective of a regime change in Tehran remains unfulfilled, the ceasefire can be expected to be fragile – as the President discovered for himself on Tuesday. It remains to be seen how the Prime Minister, a crafty, hard-nosed survivor with a powerful reputation of beating the odds, plans his next moves.Before Iran’s leader, tough choicesStory continues below this adSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has complete control over the Iranian military and political establishment, is facing perhaps the most difficult challenge of his career.Israel has all but destroyed the capabilities of Iran’s two most important overseas proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas; the regime’s ally in Syria, Bashar al-Assad, has been driven from power and forced to flee; and many of the Supreme Leader’s most senior and effective generals and aides are dead. At 86, Ali Khamenei is aging and ailing – and he was recently reported to have chosen his successors in the event of his death.But Iran’s spirit seems intact, and the extent of the actual damage caused to its nuclear program remains uncertain.Its alleged plans to build a bomb have progressed in the face of economic hardship and isolation imposed by the West’s punishing, decades-old sanctions regime. There have been reports that it has already accumulated enough enriched uranium to build about 10 bombs – and that satellite images suggest significant amounts of nuclear material were moved out of Fordow before the US bombs struck.Story continues below this adTrump claimed the attacks were a “spectacular military success” and the Iranian nuclear program had been “completely and totally obliterated”, but his generals and the defence secretary were more cautious.Whether the Iranian regime will be able to resurrect its nuclear program remains an open question. It has been argued that bombs and missiles can degrade the infrastructure at Iran’s nuclear sites, but they cannot destroy expertise and knowledge accumulated over decades. The setback may well strengthen Iran’s resolve to build the bomb, the ultimate guarantor of any country’s security.Internally, Khamenei will need to consolidate his power and deal with the street anger against his oppressive regime. Israel, and others like the exiled scion of Iran’s erstwhile Shah dynasty, has been hoping for a people’s uprising that would bring him down. In the short term, however, the war is likely to have triggered a wave of patriotism and united most Iranians around the national flag.