Wall Street Fears Hawkish Fed Will Trigger Stock Market Selloff

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But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.Most Read from BloombergSecurity Concerns Hit Some of the World’s ‘Most Livable Cities’How E-Scooters Conquered (Most of) EuropeJFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off RoadsTaser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its HometownThere’s pretty much no expectation that the Fed will reduce interest rates at this meeting after holding steady in the past three instances. But between the so-called dot plot, which outlines where central bankers think the fed funds rate is headed, and Powell’s press conference after the meeting, traders expect to have a much clearer idea of what they’re thinking.Wall Street’s hope is that the Fed see cuts coming in the fall, with swaps traders pricing roughly 56% odds of a reduction in September. The fear is that it doesn’t — and that a hawkish tone from Powell will be the trigger that sends equities prices tumbling from near all-time highs.“If Powell signals the Fed is going to keep playing the ‘wait-and-see’ game before cutting rates, the market will hate that and stocks will likely sell off,” said Dennis Dick, head of markets structure and a proprietary trader at Triple D Trading. “His tone is crucial. Trade wars. Geopolitics. Growth. No one knows how all of this will play out. Any signals cuts are coming would ignite a rally.”It’s been a wild 2025 for the stock market. The S&P 500 Index is up 1.7% for the year and stands less than 3% from a record. It almost slammed into a bear market in April after President Donald Trump unveiled his sweeping global tariffs, but it immediately took off a week later when he delayed most of his levies.The S&P 500 has traded sideways for the last five weeks, rising 0.7% since May 20. Even the fighting between Israel and Iran hasn’t really knocked the market off its pins, with the S&P 500 down just 1% since Israel launched its bombing campaign last Thursday, even as oil soars to its highest level since January. But at the same time, optimism on global trade, resilient inflation data and solid corporate earnings are already largely priced in, leaving little fuel to power stocks higher.“If the conflict in the Middle East turns into a full-scale war leading to a lasting rise in oil prices, it’s going to be a long slog for stocks this summer if inflation pressures pick up,” said Seth Merrill, chief investment officer at Crewe Advisors. He’s betting that bond proxy shares like utilities and real estate will be more susceptible to swings today, given their sensitivity to the rates outlook.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5005,980.87 -1.85 (-0.03%)Dow 3042,171.66 -44.14 (-0.10%)Nasdaq19,546.27 +25.18 (+0.13%)Russell 20002,112.96 +11.00 (+0.52%)VIX22.17 +2.03 (+10.08%)Gold3,387.40 -20.70 (-0.61%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersTMC TMC the metals company Inc. 6.75 +1.32 (+24.29%)SRRK Scholar Rock Holding Corporation 36.32 +5.17 (+16.60%)OSCR Oscar Health, Inc. 18.77 +2.66 (+16.51%)COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. 295.29 +41.44 (+16.32%)SYM Symbotic Inc. 35.70 +4.54 (+14.57%)Top losersTMDX TransMedics Group, Inc. 124.00 -12.20 (-8.96%)TCOM Trip.com Group Limited 56.54 -4.13 (-6.81%)FRHC Freedom Holding Corp. 140.43 -9.82 (-6.54%)EXLS ExlService Holdings, Inc. 45.21 -2.85 (-5.93%)MA Mastercard Incorporated 538.73 -30.72 (-5.39%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 145.48 +1.36 (+0.94%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 322.05 +5.77 (+1.82%)INTC Intel Corporation 21.49 +0.69 (+3.32%)LCID Lucid Group, Inc. 2.2200 +0.0700 (+3.26%)SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 15.36 +0.93 (+6.44%)Earnings eventsTrending tickersCL=F Crude Oil Jul 25 75.80 +0.66 (+0.88%)BTC-USD Bitcoin USD 104,252.42 +118.79 (+0.11%)ES=F E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 25 5,926.00 -55.50 (-0.93%)GC=F Gold Aug 25 3,387.40 -20.70 (-0.61%)NQ=F Nasdaq 100 Jun 25 21,484.75 -235.50 (-1.08%)Top economic events