RBC expects Chinese equities are likely to be largely range-bound in H2 2025China’s Premier Li at World Economic Forum in Tianjin is dissing TrumpHawkish BOJ policymaker flags potential for 'decisive' rate hikes despite US tariff risksAustralian Treasurer Chalmers schedules 0230 GMT media conferenceChina steps up push to internationalise the yuan as global dollar dominance waversAustralian monthly CPI (May 2025) 2.1% y/y (vs. 2.3% expected)PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1668 (vs. estimate at 7.1709)BOJ's Tamura says inflation is on track, somewhat stronger than expetedGoldman sees FX hedging accelerating dollar weaknessBOJ "split" on rate outlook amid tariff concerns and rising inflationJapan service PPI stays high, keeping BOJ rate hike expectations alive ... for 2026!Fed's Schmid says the FOMC has time to 'wait and see'Israel, US strikes set back Iran nukes 2 yrs; Israel vows to block any rebuild effortBoJ Summary of Opinions June meetingJapan services PPI +3.3% y/y (expected +3.1%, prior +3.1%) - higher than estimatesSigns UK labour market continues slowing, pay rises below inflation & fewer job openingsNew Zealand May month exports and imports little changed from AprilIran activates air defenses amid drone concerns, denies Israeli strikeThis again - White House close to announcing a few trade deals (sources say)Chinese President Xi Jinping will skip the BRICS summit in Rio (July 6–7)RBC holds a constructive view on Japanese equity market, says Japan-US trade deal likelyIran's Foreign Minister says the country's nuclear program continuesICYMI: Classified report: Iran’s nuclear capabilities largely intact despite airstrikesOil: private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw much larger than expectedForexlive Americas FX news wrap 24 Jun: Powell tilts a little more dovish in testimonyIsraeli military says it intercepted two drones 'most likely from Iran'US stock markets finish strongly, near the all-time highs but FedEx delivers a warningFed's Barr: Monetary policy well positioned to wait and seeTrade ideas thread - Wednesday, 25 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasWhile Iran-Israel tensions simmered in the background of the session, there was little market-moving news from the region. The main focus was on Japan and Australia.Japan:The session began with Japan’s services PPI for May, which rose 3.3% y/y—just below April’s revised 3.4%. This index reflects what businesses charge each other for services and is a key gauge of domestic inflation pressures.The Bank of Japan is closely watching service-sector prices for signs that wage-driven inflation may become sustained.We also received the Summary of Opinions from the BOJ’s June policy meeting. At that meeting, the BOJ kept its benchmark rate at 0.5% and signalled a slower pace of balance sheet reduction, citing concerns over weak domestic growth and shifting inflation expectations.The Summary showed that BOJ policymakers were split, with some urging caution due to U.S. tariff risks and global uncertainties, while others argued for a decisive rate hike amid stronger-than-expected inflation.One of those taking a more hawkish stance appears to be Tamura Naoki, who spoke to business leaders in Fukushima today.Tamura warned that stronger-than-expected rate hikes may be needed if inflation risks rise, even amid uncertainty from U.S. tariffs.He said inflation is tracking slightly above forecasts and may hit the 2% target earlier than expected, supported by wage and price hikes.While tariffs could weigh on growth, Tamura expects inflation to stay near 2% through fiscal 2027.He stressed the BOJ must be ready to act “decisively” if inflation expectations climb further.The yen firmed slightly following Tamura’s comments but soon drifted back toward the middle of its intraday range.Australia:Australia’s April 2025 monthly CPI came in below expectations and the previous month’s reading:Headline CPI: +2.1% y/y (exp. 2.3%, prior 2.4%)Trimmed mean CPI: +2.4% y/y (exp. 2.5%, prior 2.8%) — a 3.5-year lowWith both headline and core inflation moving closer to the bottom of the RBA’s 2–3% target band, today’s data adds to signs of easing services inflation. With Australian economic growth slow, market pricing for a rate cut at the July 7–8 RBA meeting jumped to 90% following the data. Indeed, pricing is moving close to 4 rate cuts in the coming 12 months. AUD/USD rose during the session, reflecting broad USD softness. NZD and EUR also gained against the dollar, while GBP and CAD lagged.China:Premier Li Qiang spoke at length, highlighting China’s ambition to transition from a manufacturing-led economy to a “super-sized consumption powerhouse.” He expressed confidence that China could maintain a “relatively rapid growth rate” during this structural shift.New Zealand dollar outperformed, with some AUD/NZD selling noted: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.