USDCAD Analysis – Breaking the Chains, Eyeing 1.38+USD/CADOANDA:USDCADultreosforexUSDCAD Price broke out from a long descending channel, followed by two bullish continuation flags – classic breakout-retest pattern. Price is now pushing above 1.3720, aligning with the 38.2% Fib level of the prior drop. Next upside targets: 🔹 1.3833 (Fib 61.8%) 🔹 1.3913 (Fib 78.6%) Clear stop level: below 1.3625 (channel breakout support) Structure Bias: Bullish continuation. Clean breakout + consolidation = probable impulse toward 1.3830/1.39. 📊 Current Bias: Bullish 🔍 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCAD USD Drivers (Neutral to Bullish): Fed held rates, dot plot shows only 1 cut in 2025, but Powell's tone leaned dovish. US Retail Sales + PPI were weak, but safe-haven USD demand persists due to geopolitical risks and equity volatility. Market reassessing Trump election risk, Fed independence, and inflation stickiness. CAD Drivers (Bearish): Oil prices are volatile due to Middle East tensions, but weak demand caps upside. Canada’s CPI softened, BoC already delivered a dovish cut earlier this month. CAD under pressure due to dovish BoC outlook and fiscal concerns (gov't budget deficits expanding). CAD is also suffering from reduced foreign investment flows. ⚠️ Risks to Watch Oil price spikes (especially if Strait of Hormuz risk escalates) may boost CAD short-term. A sharp reversal in DXY or Fed commentary shift toward aggressive easing. Weak US data next week (Core PCE especially) could unwind USD momentum. 🗓️ Upcoming Events to Watch US Core PCE (June 28) – critical inflation gauge for the Fed BoC Business Outlook Survey Oil Inventories + Global energy sentiment Geopolitical: Israel–Iran updates and Canada’s fiscal signals 🏁 Which Pair Leads the Move? USDCAD is leading commodity crosses as CAD weakness broadens. Watch USDCAD and GBPCAD for signs of CAD softness before others like AUDCAD/NZDCAD follow.