MSFT at a Key Spot–Rejection or Rebound? Here’s the Trade Setup

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MSFT at a Key Spot–Rejection or Rebound? Here’s the Trade SetupMicrosoft CorporationBATS:MSFTBullBearInsightsGEX-Based Option Outlook: The GEX chart reveals strong support around 487.5, with the highest positive NetGEX zone at 491.5. This is the “Gamma Wall” — market makers likely defending this level. Below that, heavy PUT support is stacked around 485, signaling hedging flow that could act as a floor. IVR is sitting at 21.5, and the PUT% is 3.2%, suggesting relatively cautious sentiment. → Call buyers can consider 495C or 500C for a bounce if MSFT holds this zone — ideally for a short-dated scalp if 492.5 reclaims and confirms. Price Action (1H) Intraday Analysis: MSFT sold off into a key SMC demand zone, now stabilizing inside the green OB box just above 487.5. We saw a CHoCH (Change of Character) and Break of Structure confirming weakness, but the last candles suggest deceleration in selling. There’s also a previous supply zone at 497–500 which is likely to reject price on the first retest. A lower high could print there if bulls step in early. Trade Ideas: Scenario 1 – Long (Reclaim and Bounce): * Entry: Above 492.5 * Target: 497 → 500 * Stop: Below 487.5 * Reason: Reclaim of key GEX resistance + bounce from demand zone + volume tapering on dip Scenario 2 – Short (Rejection): * Entry: Near 497–500 if tapped fast * Target: 487.5 → 485 * Stop: Above 501 * Reason: GEX call wall + previous SMC BOS zone + weak structure on pop Thoughts: MSFT looks weak on momentum, but it’s sitting on a gamma and SMC confluence zone. If bulls are going to defend this, they need to do it early tomorrow. Watch volume — low-volume grind higher is ideal for a long scalp. Otherwise, fade any pop near 500. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage your risk.