2025-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxMicro-DAX FuturesEUREX:FDXS1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If I had longs for 24400+ I would really doubt my position right now. Problem for the bears is, that it’s not low enough to be definitive. Only below 23600 we are making lower lows again and those can not happen in bull trends. Strong enough selling but I have my doubts that bears get follow-through tomorrow. Especially when other markets are rallying instead of selling. Above 24000 we likely see more upside but if bears are strong, they keep the market below and continue lower. current market cycle: unclear. bull trend could continue but trading range is most likely key levels: 23100 - 24500 bull case: Bulls need to stay above 23700 bad and continue higher for 24000. If they manage to break above 24k and the bear trend line, there is no reason why we can’t have another strong leg up. Until the bear channel is broken, they are not favored for anything. This could have been a retest of the daily 20ema, but only if we move strongly higher tomorrow. Invalidation is below 23600. bear case: Bears need follow-through below 23600 and close the gap to 23540. Then they have a good argument to trade down to 23100 or lower. Right now I would not short the lows because the risk of trading back up to 24000 is too big. The bear channel is clear and valid until broken. Invalidation is above 24050ish. short term: Slightly bullish that we bottom out above 23750 and trade back up to 24000 but I would only do small scalps here. Anything below 23700 would surprise me more than 24000. medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000 trade of the day: Short from EU open.