Gold market weekly reviewGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDTrend_Trading_xauGold market weekly review: the long-short dilemma and trader dilemma under the PCE inflation game On Friday, the US core PCE price index in May was 2.6% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected. This data, regarded by the Federal Reserve as an "inflation vane", once again revealed the contradictory background of the US economy - the tug-of-war between the stubborn inflation stickiness and the weak consumption momentum. After the data was released, the market reacted violently but chaotically: the US dollar index briefly dived 10 points and then quickly recovered its lost ground, while gold staged a "buy expectations and sell facts" drama, with a minimum of $3,255/ounce. Behind this is the serious disagreement among traders on the policy path - CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in September is still anchored at 68%, but the expectation of a rate cut for the whole year of 2025 has been compressed from 4 times to 3 times. What is more worthy of vigilance is the ghost effect of tariff policy. As the election approaches, trade protectionism rhetoric is rampant, and companies' pre-stocking behavior may temporarily lower inflation readings, but the reconstruction of supply chain costs in the medium and long term will strengthen the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative. In my opinion, the current market is repeating the script of "inflation repetition-expectation swing" in 2023, and the certainty of the Fed's policy shift is being swallowed by uncertainty. Key signals of the 4-hour cycle The falling channel is complete: After yesterday's cross star, there was no continuous positive rebound, and the 3280-3295 area constituted a double Fibonacci suppression (38.2% & 50% retracement level). The MACD column was released twice below the zero axis, suggesting that the shorts still have pricing power. Long-short watershed: 3250 is not only a psychological barrier, but also the last line of defense of the 2024 rising trend line. If it is lost, it will open the door to test the 3200-3180 gap. Retail trading trap warning The recent daily fluctuation of gold is 100-200 US dollars. On the surface, it is a feast of opportunities, but in fact it is a liquidity hunting ground. I have witnessed too many traders repeatedly "selling high and buying low" in the 3280-3250 range, and finally being swept by the sudden market in both directions. It is necessary to clearly realize that the current market is in the late stage of trend acceleration, and volatility expansion is often accompanied by price deviation correction. Short strategy Ideal sniper position: 3280 (Asia-European market rebound limit) and 3295 (US market second test position), stop loss is strictly placed above 3303, target 3245-3230 Key risk control: If the price stands at 3287 within 30 minutes, you need to manually exit and wait and see Bull strategy Pick chestnuts from the fire position: 3243-3247 light position to try more (need to cooperate with 15-minute RSI bottom divergence), stop loss 3238, target 3265 Cruel reality: The winning rate of counter-trend trading is less than 35%, it is recommended to halve the position and give up the fantasy of "averaging costs" Ultimate warning The closing battle of the monthly line may trigger a liquidity vacuum killing, and any "bottom-fishing" behavior below 3250 must be equipped with a hedge position. Remember: before the market proves the bottom, the price is the most honest killer.