Gold Weekly ReviewGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDLiz_Trading_goldGold Weekly Review: The Long-Short Strangling War after the Geopolitical Smoke Dissipated When Trump announced the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on social media, the market's risk aversion was like a deflated ball - the trend of gold prices plummeting 2% in a single day exposed the most vulnerable weakness of contemporary gold: in the dual game between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical risks, the risk aversion attribute is gradually becoming a supporting role. But what is more interesting is the subsequent statement of the Iranian Foreign Minister: "There is no plan to restart nuclear negotiations." This suggests that geopolitical risks are only temporarily dormant rather than disappearing. Combined with Trump's threat to "stop lifting sanctions on Iran," the carnival of gold bears may just be the calm before the storm. The PCE data in May in the United States staged an absurd drama of "inflation stickiness + consumption shrinkage": Core PCE increased by 2.7% year-on-year (a new high this year), confirming the rationality of the Fed's "higher for longer". Consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% (the first time in 21 months), but it laid the groundwork for the expectation of interest rate cuts. This contradiction has created a strange scene in the interest rate futures market: traders bet on the probability of a rate cut in September to rise to 68%, while cutting the expectation of a rate cut in 2025 from 4 to 3 times. The Fed is trapped in the data maze it created, and gold has become a victim of this policy hesitation period. 4-hour chart Death triangle descending channel + Bollinger band opening: Price breaks through 3280/3255 two lines of defense continuously, MACD forms "crocodile mouth" pattern below zero axis Key watershed: 3295-3301 area gathers 50-day moving average and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, forming the last line of defense for bears Bloody warning for operators The current market is a paradise for trend traders, but a hell for short-term traders: Main trend strategy: Shorting in 3295-3301 area (stop loss 3326) is the only opportunity worth heavy position, target 3250 break can chase to 3220 against the trend Picking chestnuts: Try to buy with a light position near 3250 (strict stop loss at 3238) needs to be coordinated with the 15-minute RSI bottom divergence, and the position must not exceed the opening of the US market Powell's "resignation" black swan: Trump's threat to replace the Fed chairman may cause the market to question the continuity of policies. Global Central Bank Governors Summit: If Powell and Lagarde release synchronized easing signals, gold may usher in a retaliatory rebound. Non-agricultural data sniper war: If the unemployment rate breaks the 4.0% threshold, it will directly trigger expectations of a rate cut in September. The author's cold reminder: When the gold price closes below 3250 on a weekly basis, it means that the upward trend in 2024 has officially ended. Before the Fed gives a clear signal of a policy shift, any bottom-fishing behavior is equivalent to being hostile to the trend.