Earth is Trapping Much More Heat Than Climate Models Forecast

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What happens if you track how much heat enters Earth's atmosphere and how much heat leaves? You discover that Earth's energy budget "is now well and truly out of balance," three climate researchers write at The Conversation:Our recent research found this imbalance has more than doubled over the last 20 years. Other researchers have come to the same conclusions. This imbalance is now substantially more than climate models have suggested... These findings suggest climate change might well accelerate in the coming years... [T]he burning of coal, oil and gas has now added more than two trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. These trap more and more heat, preventing it from leaving. Some of this extra heat is warming the land or melting sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets. But this is a tiny fraction. Fully 90% has gone into the oceans due to their huge heat capacity... The doubling of the energy imbalance has come as a shock, because the sophisticated climate models we use largely didn't predict such a large and rapid change. Typically, the models forecast less than half of the change we're seeing in the real world. We don't yet have a full explanation. But new research suggests changes in clouds is a big factor. Clouds have a cooling effect overall. But the area covered by highly reflective white clouds has shrunk, while the area of jumbled, less reflective clouds has grown. While we don't know why the cloud are changing, it "might be part of a trend caused by global warming itself, that is, a positive feedback on climate change. These findings suggest recent extremely hot years are not one-offs but may reflect a strengthening of warming over the coming decade or longer...." "We've known the solution for a long time: stop the routine burning of fossil fuels and phase out human activities causing emissions such as deforestation."Read more of this story at Slashdot.