US initial jobs claims 236K versus 245K estimateUS May trade balance -96.59B vs -88.50B expectedUS Q1 final GDP -0.5% vs -0.2% expectedUS May durable goods orders +16.4% vs +8.5% expectedUS May advance wholesale inventories -0.3% vs +0.1% expectedMexican central bank lowers benchmark rate by 50 basis points, as expectedFed's Collins says July probably too early for rate cutWhite House: July 9 deadline for trade deals not importantFed's Barr: Monetary policy well positioned to wait and see how conditions unfoldUS sells 7-year notes 4.022% vs 4.024% WIUS May pending home sales +1.8% vs +0.1% expectedFed's Daly: US labor market is solid. Not signaling weakness but suggests slowingFed's Barkin: Fed policy is well positioned for where economy might goFed's Goolsbee: Prior to Liberation Day tariffs, it seemed the Fed was on solid groundCanada average weekly earnings for April 4 .43% vs 4.31% last monthMarkets:S&P 500 up 49 points to 6141WTI crude oil up 44-cents to $65.36US 10-year yields down 4.2 bps to 4.25%Gold down $1 to $3330CHF leads, USD lagsThe US dollar is in the dog house at the moment. The Israel-Iran war was a brief respite from the 2025 downtrend because of safe haven demand but the selling resumed today as the euro, pound and Swiss franc hit multi-year highs. The euro rose as high as 1.1744 in early European trade but a second shot at that level in US trade failed and led to some profit taking, pulling the pair to 1.1710.Cable was able to crack the European high and reach 1.3770 but couldn't push much beyond that and was caught in the small USD rebound later.Among the reasons for the US dollar slump was the soft May US trade balance number, an indication that weak GDP could continue into Q2. In addition, first quarter GDP was revised down to -0.5% from -0.2% on weaker consumer spending. That's another factor that could bleed into Q2.Fed pricing for year-end is now at 65 bps of easing as the market senses some economic weakness. There is a path here though with a Fed put easing borrowing costs without too much economic pain. Initial jobless claims were slightly better this week and certainly don't point to any big red flags in the jobs market. That's something the stock market senses as the S&P 500 trades within a handful of points of February's record high (we came within 3 points at today's peak).USD/JPY fell again today to the tune of 90 pips but after falling as low as 143.76 there was some decent bottom fishing and it bounced more than 50 pips. It's the third big slump in four days this week and the pair is now back to the middle of the range since mid-April.USD/CAD also fell today in something of a catch-up trade as it had been mostly flat this week. Oil continued its small bounce but it's a long way from Monday's lofty opening levels. There is a growing sense that the Bank of Canada could be done with rate cuts unless something goes wrong in the data. I think it will but Canadian consumers are showing a surprising amount of resilience, as Couche-Tard illustrated in Wednesday's earnings report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.