MARK LANDLER2025年6月27日去年在德黑兰街头看到的宣传画，画中有研制出该国第一枚高超音速弹道导弹的伊朗科学家。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesIt has been nearly two decades since any country elbowed its way into the club of nuclear-armed nations. President Trump, with his bombing of three Iranian nuclear installations last weekend, has vowed to keep the door shut.上次有国家挤进核武器国俱乐部已是近20年前的事情了。美国总统特朗普用上周末轰炸伊朗三处核设施的做法，立誓关上这个俱乐部的大门。Whether Mr. Trump’s pre-emptive strike will succeed in doing that is hard to predict, so soon after the attack and the fragile cease-fire that has followed. But already it is stirring fears that Iran, and other countries, will draw a very different conclusion than the one the White House intended: that having a bomb is the only protection in a threatening world.特朗普先发制人的打击行动能否奏效还难以预测，因为打击和随后达成的脆弱的停火协议都是刚发生不久的事情，但一个阴影已经逐渐产生，那就是伊朗以及其他国家将从这件事中得出与白宫预期截然不同的结论：在一个充满威胁的世界，拥有核弹是唯一的防卫手段。The last country to get one, North Korea, has never faced such an attack. After years of defying demands to dismantle its nuclear program, it is now viewed as largely impregnable. Mr. Trump exchanged friendly letters with its dictator, Kim Jong-un, and met him twice in a fruitless effort to negotiate a deal. In Iran’s case, Mr. Trump deployed B-2 bombers just weeks after making a fresh diplomatic overture to its leaders.朝鲜是上一个拥核国家，它从未面临过这种打击。朝鲜多年抵制国际社会的弃核要求，其核地位现在已经难以改变。特朗普与朝鲜独裁者金正恩有过“友好的信件”往来，还见过两次面，均无功而返。反观伊朗的核问题，特朗普在对伊朗领导人做出新的外交姿态数周后，便出动了B-2轰炸机。“The risks of Iran acquiring a small nuclear arsenal are now higher than they were before the events of last week,” said Robert J. Einhorn, an arms control expert who negotiated with Iran during the Obama administration. “We can assume there are a number of hard-liners who are arguing that they should cross that nuclear threshold.”“伊朗获得一个小核武库的风险现在比上周的事情发生前更高了，”曾在奥巴马执政期间与伊朗谈判的军控专家罗伯特·艾因霍恩说。“我们可以料想，一些强硬派正在力主迈过拥核门槛。”Iran would face formidable hurdles to producing a bomb even if it made a concerted dash for one, Mr. Einhorn said, not least the knowledge that if the United States and Israel detect such a move, they will strike again. It is far from clear that Iran’s leaders, isolated, weakened and in disarray, want to provoke them.即使伊朗孤注一掷，它在制造核弹上仍会面临重重障碍，艾因霍恩说，尤其是伊朗知道，如果美国和以色列察觉到异常的话，将再次发动攻击。现在尚不可知处于孤立、削弱且混乱状态的伊朗领导人是否甘愿招致打击。麦克萨尔科技公司周日发布的卫星图像显示了遭美国打击后的伊朗福尔多铀浓缩设施。Yet the logic of proliferation looms large in a world where the nuclear-armed great powers — the United States, Russia and China — are viewed as increasingly unreliable and even predatory toward their neighbors. From the Persian Gulf and Central Europe to East Asia, analysts said, nonnuclear countries are watching Iran’s plight and calculating lessons they should learn from it.然而，核扩散逻辑的阴影已逼近，因为世界普遍认为拥核大国——美国、俄罗斯、中国——越来越不可靠，甚至欺负弱小的邻国。分析人士指出，从波斯湾和中欧到东亚，无核国家都在关注伊朗的困境，盘算着自己应该从中汲取的教训。“Certainly, North Korea doesn’t rue the day it acquired nuclear weapons,” said Christopher R. Hill, who led lengthy, ultimately unsuccessful, talks with Pyongyang in 2007 and 2008 to try to persuade it to dismantle its nuclear program.“朝鲜当然不后悔拥核之日，”克里斯托弗·希尔说，他曾是2007年和2008年与平壤谈判的牵头人，这些试图说服朝鲜放弃核武项目的谈判进行了很长时间，但最终以失败告终。The lure of the bomb, Mr. Hill said, has become stronger for America’s allies in the Middle East and Asia. Since World War II, they have sheltered under an American security umbrella. But they now confront a president, in Mr. Trump, who views alliances as incompatible with his vision of “America First.”希尔指出，核弹诱惑对美国的中东和亚洲盟友变得越来越大。自第二次世界大战以来，这些盟友一直在美国安全保护伞的庇护下。但现在它们面对的是特朗普，这位总统认为联盟体系与他的“美国优先”愿景格格不入。“I’d be very careful with the assumption that there is a U.S. nuclear umbrella,” said Mr. Hill, who served as ambassador to South Korea, Iraq, Poland, and Serbia under Democratic and Republican presidents. “Countries like Japan and South Korea are wondering whether they can rely on the U.S.”“对于所谓美国核保护伞的假设，我会持极其谨慎态度，”希尔说，他曾在民主党人和共和党人当总统期间出任驻韩国、伊拉克、波兰以及塞尔维亚大使。“像日本和韩国这样的国家已在质疑，美国是否还靠得住。”Support for developing nuclear weapons has risen in South Korea, though its newly elected president, Lee Jae-myung, has vowed to improve relations with North Korea. In 2023, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. signed a deal with Seoul to involve it more in nuclear planning with the United States, in part to head off a push by South Korean politicians and scientists to develop their own nuclear weapons capability.尽管新上任的总统李在明已誓言改善与朝鲜的关系，但韩国支持发展核武器的人越来越多。2023年，美国总统拜登与韩国签署了一项让该国更多地参与美国核项目的协议，部分是为了防止韩国政界人士和科学家推动发展本国核武能力的努力。平壤民众观看政府发布的火箭发射视频，据称发射时间为2017年。In Japan, the public has long favored disarmament, a legacy of the American atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. But it has begun debating whether to store nuclear weapons from the United States on its soil, as some members of NATO do. Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister, said that if Ukraine had kept some of its Soviet-era bombs, it might have avoided a Russian invasion.在日本，公众受1945年美国在广岛和长崎投下原子弹遗留下来的影响，长期以来支持裁军。但在日本国内已开始辩论是否效仿部分北约国家，在本土部署美国核武器。前首相安倍晋三曾声称，如果乌克兰保留了一些苏联时代的核弹的话，或可免遭俄罗斯的入侵。President Vladimir V. Putin’s threats to use tactical nuclear weapons early in that conflict gave pause to the Biden administration about how aggressively to arm the Ukrainian military. It also deepened fears that other revisionist powers could use nuclear blackmail to intimidate their neighbors.俄罗斯总统普京曾在俄乌战争早期威胁使用战术核武器，迫使拜登政府在如何积极地武装乌克兰军队上有所犹豫，也加深了人们对其他修正主义大国可能利用核讹诈恐吓邻国的担忧。The lesson of Ukraine could end up being, “If you have nuclear weapons, keep them. If you don’t have them yet, get them, especially if you lack a strong defender like the U.S. as your ally and if you have a beef with a big country that could plausibly lead to war,” wrote Bruce Riedel and Michael E. O’Hanlon, analysts at the Brookings Institution, a research group in Washington, in 2022.外界从乌克兰身上学到的教训最终可能是，“如果你拥有核武器，留着它们。如果你还没有，就去争取，尤其是当你没有美国这样的强大盟友作为你的捍卫者，而且你与一个大国存在可能导致战争的争端时，”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的分析师布鲁斯·里德尔和迈克尔·奥汉隆在2022年写道。Saudi Arabia, an ally of the United States and archrival of Iran, has watched Tehran’s nuclear ambitions with alarm. Experts say it would feel huge pressure to develop its own weapon if Iran ever obtained one. The United States has tried to reassure the Saudis by dangling assistance to a civil nuclear program, but those negotiations were interrupted by Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.美国的盟友沙特阿拉伯是伊朗的主要竞争对手，它对德黑兰的核野心保持着高度警惕。专家们说，如果伊朗确实获得了核武器的话，沙特会感受到发展核武器的巨大压力。美国虽以民用核计划援助安抚沙特，但相关谈判被色列在加沙对哈马斯发动的战争所打断。And yet, for all the predictions of a regional arms race, it has yet to occur. Experts say that is a testament to the success of nonproliferation policies, as well as to the checkered history of countries that pursued weapons.然而，尽管外界普遍预测会出现地区军备竞赛，但这种情况还未发生。专家们表示，这既是防扩散政策成功的证明，也折射出拥核这条路不好走。The Middle East is a messy landscape of dashed nuclear dreams. Iraq, Syria and Libya all had their programs dismantled by diplomacy, sanctions or military force. In the category of cautionary tales, Libya’s is perhaps the most vivid: Muammar el-Qaddafi gave up his weapons of mass destruction in 2003. Eight years later, after a NATO-backed military operation toppled his government, he crawled out of a drainpipe to face a brutal death at the hands of his own people.中东是拥核梦想破灭的混乱之地。伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚的核项目都已被外交、制裁或军事打击终结。作为警示案例，利比亚的结局也许最让人记忆犹新：穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲在2003年放弃了他的大规模杀伤性武器。八年后，北约支持的军事行动推翻了他的政府，卡扎菲从一个水泥管道里爬出来后，被他的人民殴打枪杀。乔治·W·布什总统视察利比亚交出来的部分材料，摄于2004年。交出这些材料是利比亚同意放弃核武器和导弹计划的一部分。Iran’s strategy of aggressively enriching uranium, while stopping short of a bomb, did not ultimately protect it either.伊朗的战略是，在积极进行铀浓缩的同时不制造核弹，但这个战略最终也未能保护它。“To the extent that people are looking at Iran as a test case, Trump has shown that its strategy is not a guarantee that you will prevent a military attack,” said Gary Samore, a professor at Brandeis University who worked on arms control negotiations in the Obama and Clinton administrations.“如果有人正在把伊朗视为一个案例的话，特朗普已向世界展示，伊朗的战略不能保证你免遭军事打击，”布兰迪斯大学教授加里·萨莫尔说，他曾在奥巴马政府和克林顿政府参与军控谈判工作。Mr. Samore said it was too soon to say how the Israeli and American strikes on Iran would affect the calculus of other countries. “How does this end?” he said. “Does it end with a deal? Or is Iran left to pursue a nuclear weapon?”萨莫尔说，讨论以色列和美国对伊朗的打击会如何影响其他国家的考量还为时过早。“这次结局如何？”他问道。“是达成协议？还是伊朗继续致力于发展核武器？”Experts on proliferation are, by nature, wary. But some are trying to find a silver lining in the events of the last week. Mr. Einhorn said that in delivering on his threat to bomb a nuclear-minded Iran, Mr. Trump had sent a reassuring message to American allies facing their own nuclear insecurities.研究核扩散问题的专家天性谨慎。但有些人试图从上周发生的事情中找到一线光明。艾因霍恩说，特朗普兑现了他要对希望拥核的伊朗进行轰炸的威胁，这给面临核威慑焦虑的美国盟友们递上了定心丸。“In Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing,” Mr. Einhorn said, “they’ve taken notice not just of the reach and capacity of the U.S. military, but the willingness of this president to use that capability.”“莫斯科方面、平壤方面，还有北京方面，”艾因霍恩说，“他们不仅见识到了美军的作战范围和实力，也注意到了这位总统有使用那种能力的意愿。”Mark Landler是时报伦敦分社社长，报道英国新闻以及美国在欧洲、亚洲和中东的外交政策。他从事新闻工作已超过30年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。