When Wave 3 Extends to 3.618×SET50 Index Futures (Sep 2025)TFEX:S50U2025akaake✅ What It Means •Wave 3 has extended to 3.618× the length of Wave 1, which is a very strong impulsive wave. •This often indicates high momentum and strong underlying trend (usually confirmed with high volume). •It’s a classic sign of an extended wave structure — common in high-volatility, trend-driven markets. ⸻ 🔄 Wave 4 Retracement Behavior In such cases, Wave 4 tends to be shallow, both in price and time. Here’s what we know: 🔍 Typical Wave 4 Retracement When Wave 3 = 3.618 × Wave 1: Type Typical Behavior Depth (Fibonacci) 0.236 to 0.382 of Wave 3 Time Often longer than Wave 2 Form Often sideways: triangle, flat Probability of Deep Retrace Low (< 25%) So when Wave 3 is extended, Wave 4 usually does not retrace deeply. 📊 Historical/Educated Probability Estimate Event Probability Wave 3 extends to 3.618× Wave 1 ~10–15% of impulsive wave cases Wave 4 retraces shallowly (0.236–0.382) ~70–80% in extended Wave 3 Wave 4 retraces deeply (>0.5) ~10–15% (rare, usually corrective failure) So: 🧠 If Wave 3 is extended (3.618×), there is ~70–80% chance that Wave 4 will be shallow and not violate Wave 1 top. 📌 Summary •✅ Wave 3 extended to 3.618× implies strong trend •✅ Wave 4 likely shallow (0.236–0.382 retrace) •❌ Deep retrace into Wave 1 territory is unlikely unless structure is failing