2/26/25 - $nvda - It's a buy into print...NVIDIA CorporationNASDAQ:NVDAVROCKSTAR2/26/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NVDA It's a buy into print... 1/ "It's dot com 2.0" A: dot com was consumer-first, AI is enterprise-first; dot com lacked infrastructure for years, AI has all the infrastructure required; dot com companies were memes, the largest AI companies generate piles of cash B/ "but AI doesn't generate revenue" A: you heard this low IQ meme on X? what if you're Meta and not hiring new engineers b/c AI systems are replacing your workforce? don't just look at revenue today, need to look at how AI is being deployed across the cost structure. the revenue for something like META is actually coming thru better ad targeting (they're the best example of large-scale enterprise deploying AI today, there are many "bad" examples - sure), but the point is, don't just look at revenue. revenue will scale fast. but cost is just as important to the bottom line of "why invest" C/ "msft is cutting across datacenter... leases... OMG" A: they realized that there's a lot of dumb get-rich-have-too-much-QE-money-and-wanna-do-AI stuff getting built. so let's just "rent not own" at the margin. pretty logical. they're also realizing perhaps they need more than just OpenAI as a partner. logical. msft not going anywhere. Satya is no dumb cookie. he realizes many AI mkts will be winner take all and they're identifying those. massive oppty ... My base case going into NVDA EPS this week was a beat/raise and stock either flat or sell off to find a trade-worthy floor deep-seek style. But we freaked out yesterday on emotions across the board. not saying we have "the event" that yet marks the bottom for risk assets, so long as we have yields floating reasonably high, inflation expectations not yet well understood (btw they're going lower, but the mkt thinks opposite at the moment) and a lot of toilet tweets that still move a skiddish tape. tons of value out there already. so y'day i think we set up for a nvda beat, raise and stock actually holding up. while i've traded the name a lot, i don't have an outright position into print b/c i still prefer the TSM trade to NVDA all else equal. i think more upside on '25/'26... for a much cheaper price and the closest you get to moat. i'm also taking a flyer position on MU which i think will be the USSA winner in HBM and multiples if i'm right are dirty cheap compared to fishing in the #3, #4... pond w stuff like AVGO (too expensive ATM for me), AMD (too much overhang awaiting next results, rangebound for now) etc. etc. i like ALAB if you're playing high growth and reasonable multiple. hope that helps. not much in the way of valuation for me here in this note for the print. this is more of a feel game for now. but in the scheme of things... NVDA remains incredibly cheap. yup. V