PETER S. GOODMAN2025年2月27日加利福尼亚州的奥克兰港。拜登政府曾对中国在航运业中的主导地位进行过调查，上周五的一项提议是该调查的结果。 John G Mabanglo/EPA, via ShutterstockThe Trump administration has opened a broad new front in its global trade conflict, proposing to affix levies reaching $1.5 million on Chinese-made ships arriving at American ports.特朗普政府在其全球贸易冲突中开辟了一条广阔的新战线，它提议对抵达美国港口的中国制造船只征收高达150万美元的关税。Such fees would apply even on vessels made elsewhere if they are operated by carriers whose fleets include Chinese ships — an approach that risks increasing costs on an array of imported cargo, from raw materials to factory goods.如果船队中包括中国船只，那么即使是其他地方制造的船只也将被征收此类费用，这种做法可能会增加从原材料到工厂产品等一系列进口货物的成本。Given their potential to increase consumer prices, the levies could collide with President Trump’s promises to attack inflation. Nearly 80 percent of American foreign trade by weight is transported by ship, yet less than 2 percent is carried on American-flagged vessels, according to Gavekal Research.考虑到这些关税有可能提高消费者价格，它们或与特朗普打击通胀的承诺发生冲突。根据Gavekal Research公司的数据，按重量计算，美国近80%的对外贸易是通过船舶运输的，但只有不到2%由悬挂美国国旗的船只运输。As detailed on Friday by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the proposal reflects the “America First” credo animating the Trump administration. It is engineered to discourage reliance on Chinese vessels in supplying Americans with products, while aiming to spur the revival of a domestic shipbuilding industry after a half-century of veritable dormancy.正如美国贸易代表办公室上周五详述的那样，该提议反映了特朗普政府奉行的“美国优先”信条。该计划旨在减少美国对中国船只供应产品的依赖，同时旨在刺激美国国内造船业在经历了半个世纪的真正沉寂之后实现复苏。Taken together with Mr. Trump’s expansive tariffs, the approach to shipping is a rebuke of the trading system constructed by the United States and its allies after World War II. Faith in the view of the world as a teeming marketplace has given way to hostility toward globalization in favor of the pursuit of self-sufficiency.与特朗普扩大关税的做法结合来看，这种航运政策是对美国及其盟友在第二次世界大战后构建的贸易体系的抨击。将世界视为一个繁荣市场的信念让位于对全球化的敌意，并且更加倾向于自给自足。The proposal would advance the mission to isolate China while diminishing American reliance on its industry — a rare area of bipartisan consensus in Washington. The plan was the result of an investigation, started during the Biden administration, into the dominance of the Chinese shipping industry, in response to a petition filed by labor unions.该提案将推进孤立中国的使命，同时减少美国对中国工业的依赖——这是华盛顿两党达成共识的一个罕见领域。这一计划是拜登政府时期启动的一项调查的结果，该调查针对中国航运业的主导地位，是对工会一项请愿的回应。Almost one-fifth of container vessels arriving at American ports are made in China, and a far higher share on trading lanes spanning the Pacific, according to ING, the Dutch banking giant.据荷兰银行业巨头荷兰国际集团称，抵达美国港口的集装箱船中，近五分之一是中国制造的，而在横跨太平洋的贸易航线上，这一比例要高得多。“A significant portion of imports entering the U.S. via ports would be directly subject to hefty fines,” the bank’s researchers concluded in a report published Monday. “These additional expenses would likely be passed on from the carrier to shippers and, ultimately, to importers and exporters.”“很大一部分通过港口进入美国的进口商品将直接面临巨额收费，”该银行的研究人员在周一发布的报告中得出结论。“这些额外费用可能会从承运人转嫁给托运人，并最终转嫁给进口商和出口商。”The administration is fielding comments on the proposal through March 24. Mr. Trump could then impose the levies by executive order.政府将在3月24日之前就该提案征求意见。然后，特朗普可以通过行政命令征收关税。The plan envisions a range of fees on ships unloading at American ports depending on the percentage of Chinese-made vessels in a carrier’s fleet. In addition to the rate of up to $1.5 million for Chinese-built ships, it outlines levies reaching $1 million per port call for carriers whose orders for new ships draw heavily on Chinese shipping yards.该计划设想对在美国港口卸货的船舶收取一系列费用，具体取决于中国制造的船舶在航运公司船队中的比例。除了对中国制造的船舶征收高达150万美元的关税外，该提案还列出计划，对新船订单大量依赖中国船厂的航运公司，每次停靠港口都要征收高达100万美元的关税。Major carriers typically stop at two or three American ports per route, meaning their levies could exceed $3 million on journeys bringing $10 million to $15 million in revenue, estimated Ryan Petersen, chef executive of Flexport, a global logistics company.据全球物流公司Flexport的首席执行官瑞安·彼得森估计，大型航运公司的每个航次通常会在两到三个美国港口停靠，这意味着，对于收入在1000万至1500万美元之间的航次，纳税额可能会超过300万美元。“The proposed fees are huge, and they will get rolled into what shippers have to pay, and hence consumers,” said Willy Shih, an international trade expert at Harvard Business School. “It’s a really aggressive move that reflects an administration that is either out of touch with how the world really works or that doesn’t care and wants to cause chaos.”“拟议中的费用是巨大的，它们将被纳入托运人必须支付的费用中，进而计入消费者的费用，”哈佛商学院国际贸易专家史兆威表示。“这是一个非常激进的举动，反映出政府要么不了解世界真实的运作方式，要么根本不在乎，只想制造混乱。”Upheaval may suit the designs of Mr. Trump, who has sought to pressure companies to make their products in the United States. But increased shipping costs could hamper that effort, given that more than one-fourth of American imports are components, parts or raw materials, according to World Bank data. Higher costs on such cargo challenge the economics of making finished goods in the United States.这一剧变可能符合特朗普的设计，他一直试图向企业施压，让它们在美国生产产品。但世界银行的数据显示，鉴于美国进口产品中超过四分之一是零部件或原材料，运输成本上升可能会阻碍这一努力。这类货物的成本增加对于在美国制造制成品的经济构成了挑战。The Trump proposal aims to counter the dominance of the Chinese shipbuilding industry, which makes more than half the world’s commercial cargo vessels, up from 5 percent in 1999, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.特朗普的提议旨在对抗中国造船业的主导地位。根据美国贸易代表办公室的数据，中国造船业占全球商用货船的比例从1999年的5%上升到了现在的一半以上。At least 15 percent of American exports would have to be shipped on U.S.-flagged vessels within seven years of the new policy, and 5 percent of fleets would have to be built in the United States.在新政策实施后的七年内，至少15%的美国出口货物必须由悬挂美国国旗的船只运输，5%的船队必须在美国建造。“There is no physical way in hell that U.S. shipyards can do that,” said Lars Jensen, chief executive of Vespucci Maritime, a container shipping consultancy based in Copenhagen. “The technical term for this proposal would just be ‘stupid.’” “美国造船厂根本不可能做到这一点，”总部位于哥本哈根的集装箱航运咨询公司Vespucci Maritime首席执行官拉尔斯·詹森说。“用专业术语来说，这个提议就是‘愚蠢’。”The wait for a new container ship from an existing shipyard already stretches more than three years, he said. An American industry would be starting almost from scratch, requiring billions of dollars and many years.他说，从现有船厂购买一艘新集装箱船的等待时间已经超过三年。美国的工业几乎是从零开始，需要数十亿美元和多年的时间来建设。The effort would also require steel — a commodity made more expensive by Mr. Trump’s tariffs.这一努力还需要钢铁——这种商品因特朗普的关税而变得更加昂贵。In the meantime, the levies would create fresh opportunities for established shipyards in South Korea and Japan.与此同时，征税将为韩国和日本的老牌造船厂创造新的机会。If enacted, the proposal would scramble international transportation, sowing extra uncertainty for businesses already grappling with Mr. Trump’s various tariff proposals.如果该提案获得通过，它将扰乱国际运输，给已经在努力应对特朗普各种关税提案的企业带来额外的不确定性。Importers would most likely reduce their use of American ports by shipping into Mexico and Canada, and then using trucks and rail to deliver to the United States.进口商很可能减少对美国港口的使用，将货物运到墨西哥和加拿大，然后用卡车和铁路运到美国。“Those ports are often congested,” noted Mr. Petersen, the Flexport chief executive. “They won’t be able to absorb much capacity.”“那些港口经常很拥挤，”Flexport首席执行官彼得森指出。“它们将无法吸收太多运力。”Peter S. Goodman是一名报道全球经济的记者。他撰写有关经济和地缘政治的交叉议题，尤其关注着对普通人及其生活生计的影响。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。