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Upgrade NowMichael S. DerbyWed, Feb 26, 2025, 5:33 PM 4 min readBy Michael S. Derby(Reuters) - Expectations for the future path of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet drawdown process have been scrambled in the wake of last week's readout of January's policy meeting, which showed central bankers concerned about how the effort to shed bonds might collide with dynamics around the federal debt ceiling.Until a few days ago many banks had been pushing back their expected end date for the Fed's drawdown of its Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities - a process called quantitative tightening - but there's now no solid consensus as to how the U.S. central bank will proceed with shrinking the holdings over the coming months.This fragmentation follows the release of the minutes of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee's January 28-29 meeting, when "various" policymakers said they were open to pausing or slowing the reduction of Fed-owned Treasury and mortgage bonds to navigate uncertain money market conditions as Congress sorts out government finances and a statutory cap on the federal debt that came back into force last month.The Treasury Department is already employing "extraordinary measures" to continue most normal debt issuance under the limit, but there is a wide range of estimates - stretching into mid-summer - for when it runs out of wiggle room.As a result, money market conditions may be unsettled for some time, which increases the risk the Fed could go too far with liquidity withdrawals, something central bank officials do not want and which opens the door to a shift in the QT process.Reading the levels of market liquidity is challenging because Treasury's actions to keep the government funded while the borrowing cap is in place will push money out into the financial system and boost what have been steady reserve levels, analysts say, while a resolution of that issue will then quickly pull cash back out.STOP, SLOW OR KEEP GOING"We assume that the FOMC would be inclined to 'slow' the overall pace of runoffs rather than freeze them altogether," analysts at Wrightson ICAP said. An outright pause would require some purchasing of Treasury debt to keep Fed holdings steady, and "the communications hurdles stemming from any shift in the pace of QT are daunting enough without having to explain the introduction of a temporary new asset purchase program as well."Barclays analysts are holding to their view that QT will end in September or October, noting "it may not make sense to pause QT at say, the March or May meetings, only to briefly restart and end asset roll-offs in September or October."Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P Futures6,005.00 +34.25 (+0.57%)Dow Futures43,615.00 +109.00 (+0.25%)Nasdaq Futures21,320.00 +133.00 (+0.63%)Russell 2000 Futures2,195.20 +17.00 (+0.78%)Crude Oil69.32 +0.70 (+1.02%)Gold2,905.70 -24.90 (-0.85%)My PortfoliosSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop GainersZI ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. 11.73 +2.20 (+23.08%)HURN Huron Consulting Group Inc. 148.18 +22.85 (+18.23%)OTLY Oatly Group AB 8.08 +1.24 (+18.13%)LNTH Lantheus Holdings, Inc. 93.25 +13.20 (+16.49%)AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. 572.40 +75.75 (+15.25%)Top LosersAAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. 37.70 -8.18 (-17.83%)ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. 17.77 -2.83 (-13.74%)CART Maplebear Inc. 42.80 -5.98 (-12.26%)APP AppLovin Corporation 331.00 -46.06 (-12.22%)FSS Federal Signal Corporation 79.98 -10.77 (-11.87%)Most ActiveNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 131.28 +4.65 (+3.67%)LCID Lucid Group, Inc. 2.2550 -0.3550 (-13.60%)SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. 51.11 +5.57 (+12.23%)NIO NIO Inc. 4.7200 +0.4500 (+10.54%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 290.80 -12.00 (-3.96%)Trending TickersNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 131.28 +4.65 (+3.67%)SNOW Snowflake Inc. 166.19 +1.99 (+1.21%)RR.L Rolls-Royce Holdings plc 749.55 +118.55 (+18.79%)CRM Salesforce, Inc. 307.33 +1.45 (+0.47%)MARA MARA Holdings, Inc. 12.45 +0.03 (+0.28%)Top Economic Events