BTC Forks & CyclesBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTwildboar8It’s Sunday and it’s raining here so I thought I’d write up a post. I was going to review a few alt coins but presently alt movement depends on what btc is going to do so what’s the point of doing alts first. Also, as the title says, I’ve been learning a lot about forks (courtesy of KingCobra) and cycles (courtesy of CamelFinance) which both have made my life a lot easier. Previously, the last few years, I’ve concentrated on elliot wave which is fine and great, but it takes an awful lot of time to try and chart all the coins I’m following, whereas, as a swing trader, its a LOT easier and WAY LESS time consuming to us forks and cycles to estimate pa movement. Don’t get me wrong, elliot wave is still an important aspect I use, amongst other things, but again, as a swing trader, long and short term can be tracked WAY easier with cycles and forks. So cycles. As per Camel, we’re now in the range for a weekly cycle low. Camels cycle indicator, which I’ve subscribed to, shows the “estimated” weekly cycle low happening between March 8-20th. Many people out there are saying end of Feb (28th) is a BIG day for btc/markets. So I’ve used Feb 28 as my cycle low date in the 4h chart above description (the white arrows). So cycles. As per Camel, we’re now in the range for a weekly cycle low. Camels cycle indicator, which I’ve subscribed to, shows the “estimated” weekly cycle low happening between March 8-20th, and many people out there are saying end of Feb (28th) is a BIG day for btc/markets. So I’ve used Feb 28 as my cycle low date in the 4h chart above description (the white arrows). Now forks and the 4h chart. Using knowledge derived from KingCobra, in the chart above there are 2 forks drawn. The dashed white lines designate the boundaries for the forks to help you identify them. The chart is in Linear scale and both forks are mode “schif”. As you can see in the upward sloping fork the all important meridian line has been touched several times shown via the green circles. In the downward sloping fork the meridian line has been touched again several times shown via the red circles. So where do I think btc is going. Well “if” btc drops on Feb 28 or thereabouts, “if” pa hits the meridian line again on the downward sloping fork, that puts pa at 91.1k. If I change the fork to “modified shcif” shown in chart below, pa hits the “median line” at 86.5k which also matches up with the 31% fib level retracement also used by KingCobra regularly. Now I said “if” btc drops because as per Camel, we could have simply more sideways action to get a “timed” cycle low (sometime between now and Mar 20th) and blast off from there. I say blast off because as per the cycle chart, this bullrun has been moving in steps increasing by doubling in price then weeks of sideways action, then another step up. This next step up could take btc to the 180k level whereas using pitchforks and KingCobras method a cycle top is estimated around the 150k mark. indicators. I haven’t included any indicators but suffice it to say, the 1D, 3D and 1W RSI, SRSI and MacD all show a weakening downtrend although all are showing near the bottom of their scales. To me that says a little more downtrend with a reversal uptrend coming. Having said all that, we could be entering a period of economic instability, turmoil and/or recession where markets an btc/crypto all drop for the next several months or a year which would mean that btc and the markets have reached their tops followed by a decline in everything, party’s over, short short short. The next week or three will show us what’s what so be prepared either way. My thoughts, not financial advice Oklah. Cheers