Raila’s AU Loss Deepens ODM Rift as Party Warns of Rebellion Against Ruto

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KISUMU, Kenya Feb 23 – The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing a deepening internal crisis following Raila Odinga’s failed bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. The loss to Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf has intensified divisions within the party, with some key members aligning themselves with President William Ruto’s government, while others warn of a looming rebellion if the administration fails to address Kenyans’ concerns.The outcome has emboldened factions within ODM, with some leaders declaring a revolt from President William Ruto’s administration which the party had aligned itself to, raising questions about the pact which saw top-ranking party officials named to the Cabinet.Deputy party leaders Hassan Joho (Mining) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), along with former ODM chairperson John Mbadi (National Treasury) and Secretary for Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), have all taken up Cabinet positions. Their appointments has fueled debate over ODM’s identity, with some insisting the party is still the opposition while others argue it is now part of the government.Acting party leader Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o said that ODM will not be used to cover up the government’s failures.Speaking on Saturday during the burial of historian Prof. Bethwel Ogot in Gem, Siaya County, Nyong’o emphasized that it is not the party’s duty to continuously “extinguish fires” within the government.“Over the years, as those of us who have been in the struggle know, we have stood with the people to demand better services,” said Nyong’o, who also serves as Kisumu Governor. He pointed out that ODM, under former leader Raila Odinga, stepped in to stabilize the government during the Gen Z protests but warned that such support would not be forthcoming if grievances remain unresolved.He particularly urged the government to act on issues raised by young protesters, criticizing its complacency. “It’s good that Eliud Owalo, the Deputy Chief of Staff in charge of performance and delivery management, is here so he can explain what the government has done for the people,” Nyong’o stated.The situation has escalated following Raila’s failed AUC bid, with political realignments gaining momentum. Some ODM leaders have interpreted the loss as a sign of Raila’s declining influence, fueling speculation about the party’s future and whether it can remain a united opposition force.ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has called on party lawmakers and officials who have aligned themselves with President Ruto to resign and formally join the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Sifuna, who also serves as Nairobi Senator, accused the officials of betraying the party’s values by “becoming Ruto’s mouthpiece, supporting his punitive policies, and abandoning the ordinary people.”“Leave ODM and join UDA if you cannot defend Kenyans. Stop being sycophants and call out Ruto for the injustices happening in the country,” he said in a statement.ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga has however, dismissed Sifuna’s remarks as divisive, arguing that ODM is strategically engaging with Ruto’s regime while keeping an eye on the 2027 elections—whether independently or as part of a coalition.Another influential ODM lawmaker, Peter Kaluma, has threatened to mobilize support for Sifuna’s expulsion from the party over his criticism of last year’s Raila-Ruto deal. “We are in government, and we are moving forward,” he posted on X.Siaya Governor James Orengo, echoing Nyong’o’s sentiments, stressed that government services to the Luo community and all Kenyans should be seen as a right, not a privilege. “We are not visitors in this country. We should not be forced to praise anyone to receive development,” Orengo said, taking a swipe at some ODM members who have aligned with the government.Others like Minority Whip Junet Mohamed are often seen openly declaring support for Ruto’s administration, rejecting calls for ODM members in government to resign. “Some are saying we should leave. Leave to go where? Let them continue making noise because we are in ODM and government to stay,” he said at a political gathering.The widening cracks within ODM underscore the growing uncertainty over Raila’s political future. With key party figures now embedded in government, the opposition landscape is shifting, leaving ODM at a crossroads—whether to remain an opposition force or fully embrace the new political reality. At the same time, Nyong’o and Orengo’s warnings to Kenya Kwanza indicate that at least a faction within ODM is still willing to challenge Ruto’s administration on governance issues, including healthcare, education, and the high cost of living—long-standing grievances that continue to fuel public discontent.