US Tech 100 Volatility Alert Ahead of the Nvidia Earnings UpdateUS Tech 100 IndexPEPPERSTONE:NAS100PepperstoneUS equity markets are starting to show some strain. On Monday, the US Tech 100 dropped 1.2%, bringing the decline since Friday to around 3.5%. The main catalyst seemed to be a reduction in long positioning in some key Magnificent Seven stocks ahead of AI bellwether Nvidia’s quarterly earnings update that is due out after the market close on Wednesday. These results are likely to be an important influence on sentiment towards the US Tech 100 across the rest of the week. Adding further emphasis is the fact that these are the first set of earnings from the company since Chinese start up DeepSeek emerged as a potential major disruptor in the AI space. Traders and investors are likely to be keen to gain insight into what impact, if any, this has had on the company’s ability to deliver on future revenue expectations. However, this may be only part of the story for the recent performance of technology stocks. President Trump and his team indicated on Monday that they are drawing up tougher versions of the current semiconductor restrictions in place on exports to China. They also stated that they have encouraged allies to do the same, in the latest attempt by the US to limit China’s ability to increase its technological progress. It seems that President Trump’s trade and tariff policies may be starting to increase volatility in US stock markets again after a brief respite since the start of February. Technical trends and reactions in price to potential support and resistance levels may also influence the direction of the Nasdaq 100 moving forward across the week. Technical Update: Support Pressured Ahead of Nvidia An important focus this week for the technology sector could be the Nvidia earnings, but even before this potentially important driver of future price trends, the US Tech 100 index has started to see price weakness emerge. The index does appear to be testing some potentially interesting support levels. How these levels are defended on a closing basis, into and after the Nvidia earnings, may provide an important insight into where the US Tech 100 may move next. Having posted a new intra-day all-time price high of 22226 on February 18th, the US Tech 100 index has seen selling pressure develop, a move that meant early February strength has failed to close above the previous 22142 December 16th all-time high. An inability of buyers to overcome such an important upside extreme on a closing basis especially if it is then followed by price declines, may suggest increased potential for a sentiment change, one that could even lead to further weakness. However, for this to happen, support levels must be broken on a closing basis to see this downside potential develop further. Looking at the above chart of the US Tech 100 index, the latest price weakness has now seen what might have been viewed as a potential support, marked by the Bollinger mid-average give way, which currently stands at 21694. While this is no guarantee of an extended phase of price weakness, Monday’s closing break under support marked by the February 10th low at 21344, may also indicate risks of a more extended phase of price weakness. If this is the case, price activity may move down towards 20477, which is the January 13th extreme and if this support was broken, declines could potentially move towards 20326, which is the 38% Fibonacci retracement of August/ December 2024 strength. What About Resistance? As we have said, reaction to Nvidia earnings may see increased price volatility, potentially even renewed upside, and traders must build that possibility into their trading strategy over coming sessions. With that in mind, what are the resistance levels that if broken might lead to a further phase of price strength? Initially traders might be focusing on the interim resistance marked by the mid-average, which currently stands at 21694. Closes above here, may lead to the suggestion that lower support levels are holding, which may open the potential for fresh strength to higher levels. While in the longer term, it may be the resistance marked by the February 18th all-time high at 22226 that needs to give way to suggest further price strength. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. 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