MSFT Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26Microsoft CorporationNASDAQ:MSFTBullBearInsights📌 Key Observations from the Charts 1. Market Structure Breakdown: * MSFT experienced a sharp decline, breaking below previous support levels around 412 and heading towards 408. * The trend remains bearish as price is rejecting from a lower high after a significant breakdown. * Volume profile suggests strong liquidity near 408, with 405.82 as the next critical downside level. 2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels: * Point of Control (POC): ~408 (high liquidity, potential reaction zone). * Value Area High (VAH): ~412-413 (prior resistance). * Value Area Low (VAL): ~405.82 (possible next support). * Below 405, there's a liquidity gap, meaning price could fall sharply to 400-395 if selling pressure increases. 3. Indicators Review: * MACD: Bearish momentum increasing. * Stochastic RSI: Slightly oversold but not yet curling upward—potential for more downside. * VWAP: Price is trading below VWAP, confirming bearish control. 🛠️ Options GEX Analysis * Call Resistance: * 420 → Highest positive NETGEX & Call Wall (strong resistance). * 430-440 → Heavy call positioning (unlikely to reach unless trend shifts). * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 390 & 385 → Highest Put Walls & Support (-50% & -30% levels). * 395 → Second Major Put Wall (-39%). * If price breaks 405, it may accelerate toward 400-395 due to gamma exposure. * Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx): * IVR 28.5 | IVx Avg 34.9 → Slightly elevated but not extreme. * Call Positioning Only 7.3% → Options traders are not betting heavily on upside. 📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup) 🔹 Entry: Short below 408 confirmation. 🔹 Target 1: 405.82 (VAL). 🔹 Target 2: 400-395 (Put Support). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 412 (invalidates downside move). 🔹 Options Strategy: * Buy PUTS 405/400 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms. * Debit Put Spread (Bearish 410P/400P for risk control). 🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely) 🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 412, targeting 416-420. 🔹 Target 1: 416 (first resistance). 🔹 Target 2: 420 (Highest GEX resistance). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 410 invalidates upside move. 🔹 Options Strategy: * Sell 395/390 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play. 🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions * Main Bias: Bearish, unless 412+ is reclaimed. * Gamma Risks: Below 405, strong gamma exposure can push MSFT lower quickly. * Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.