托马斯·弗里德曼2025年2月26日 Evan Vucci/Associated PressThe drama going on between President Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine raises one of the most disturbing questions I’ve ever had to ask about my own country: Are we being led by a dupe for Vladimir Putin — by someone ready to swallow whole the Russian president’s warped view of who started the war in Ukraine and how it must end? Or are we being led by a Mafia godfather, looking to carve up territory with Russia the way the heads of crime families operate? “I’ll take Greenland, and you can take Crimea. I’ll take Panama, and you can have the oil in the Arctic. And we’ll split the rare earths of Ukraine. It’s only fair.”特朗普总统与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基之间闹出的这些事，不禁让我对我的国家产生了一个极其令人不安的疑问：我们是在被一个弗拉基米尔·普京的傀儡领导着吗？在谁挑起了乌克兰战争以及战争必须如何结束这些问题上，这个人会全盘接受俄罗斯总统的扭曲观点。又或者，我们是被一个黑手党教父式的人物领导着吗？他像黑帮家族头目那样，盘算着与俄罗斯瓜分领土。“格陵兰归我，克里米亚归你。巴拿马归我，北极的石油归你。然后我们瓜分乌克兰的稀土。这才公平嘛。”Either way, my fellow Americans and our friends abroad, for the next four years at least, the America you knew is over. The bedrock values, allies and truths America could always be counted upon to defend are now all in doubt — or for sale. Trump is not just thinking out of the box. He is thinking without a box, without any fidelity to truth or norms that animated America in the past.不管是哪种情况，我的美国同胞们，还有我们在海外的朋友们，至少在接下来的四年里，你们所熟知的那个美国将不复存在了。美国一直以来赖以捍卫的那些基石价值观、盟友关系以及真理，如今都已岌岌可危——或者说可以用来买卖。特朗普不只是跳出常规思维，他根本就是毫无章法地思考，对过去激励着美国的真理或规范毫无忠诚可言。I can’t blame our traditional friends for being disoriented. Read the sorrowful essay last week by the heroic Soviet dissident and freedom fighter Natan Sharansky:我能理解我们的传统盟友所感到困惑。读一读英勇的苏联异见者、自由斗士纳坦·夏兰斯基在上周所写的那篇悲痛的文章吧：“When I first heard President Donald Trump’s words on the tarmac — when he blamed Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for starting the war that Russia launched against Ukraine — I was absolutely shocked,” Sharansky wrote for The Free Press. “Trump seems to have adopted the rhetoric of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. He repeated a line from the Kremlin that sounded like Soviet-style propaganda: that Zelensky is not a legitimate leader. When Putin, the seemingly eternal leader of Russia, says it, it is laughable. When the president of the United States says it, it’s alarming, tragic, and does not comply with common sense.”“当我第一次听到唐纳德·特朗普总统在停机坪上的言论时——当他指责乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基挑起了俄罗斯对乌克兰发动的战争时——我大为惊诧，”夏兰斯基为网络媒体The Free Press撰文称。“特朗普似乎采纳了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的论调。他重复了克里姆林宫的一种说法，听起来就像苏联式的宣传：泽连斯基不是一位合法的领导人。这样的话出自普京之口——一个看起来永远不会下台的俄罗斯领导人——会显得可笑。但当美国总统这么说的时候，就令人担忧、悲哀，且不符合常理了。”That’s a benign interpretation of Trump — that he is just besotted with Putin, Russia’s Christian nationalist, anti-woke crusader, and not applying the common sense that he promised. But then there is also another explanation: Trump does not see American power as the cavalry coming to rescue the weak seeking freedom from those out to quash them; he sees America as coming to shake down the weak. He’s running a protection racket.这是对特朗普比较温和的一种解读——认为他只是对普京这位俄罗斯的基督教民族主义者、反“觉醒”运动的斗士着迷，而没有运用他所承诺的常理来判断。但还有另一种解释：特朗普并不认为美国的力量是用来拯救那些渴望从压迫者手中获得自由的弱者的；他认为美国是来敲诈弱者的。他是个收保护费的。Consider this stunning paragraph from a Wall Street Journal article about Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent meeting in Kyiv with Zelensky. Bessent presented Zelensky with an offer he couldn’t refuse — to sign over Ukrainian mineral rights to America, worth hundreds of billions of dollars, to compensate for U.S. aid.《华尔街日报》关于财政部长斯科特·贝森特最近在基辅与泽连斯基会面的文章中，有这么一段令人震惊的内容。贝森特向泽连斯基提出了一个他无法拒绝的提议——让泽连斯基签署文件，将价值数千亿美元的乌克兰矿产权益转让给美国，以此作为对美国援助的补偿。It was a scene right out of “The Godfather”: “Bessent pushed the paper across the table, demanding that Zelensky sign it …. Zelensky took a quick look and said he would discuss it with his team. Bessent then pushed the paper closer to Zelensky. ‘You really need to sign this,’ the Treasury secretary said. Zelensky said he was told ‘people back in Washington’ would be very upset if he didn’t. The Ukrainian leader said he took the document but didn’t commit to signing.”这简直就是《教父》里的场景：“贝森特把文件推到桌子对面，要求泽连斯基签字……泽连斯基匆匆看了一眼，说他会和他的团队讨论一下。然后贝森特又把文件往泽连斯基面前推了推。‘你真的得签了这个。’财政部长说道。泽连斯基说有人告诉他，如果他不签，‘华盛顿那边的人’会非常生气。这位乌克兰领导人说他收下了文件，但没有承诺会签字。”This whole story shows you again what happens when Trump is no longer surrounded by buffers but only by amplifiers. Bessent, a savvy investor, surely knew that the president of Ukraine could not just sign a piece of paper turning over hundreds of billions in mineral rights without checking with his lawyers, his Parliament or his people. But the Treasury secretary felt he had to do Trump’s bidding, no matter how foul or absurd. If the president wants to empty Gaza and make it a casino, then that’s what you sell. Extort Ukraine in the middle of war? That’s what you do. 整个事件再次向你表明，当特朗普身边不再有缓冲的力量而只有附和他的人的时候会发生什么。贝森特是个精明的投资者，他肯定知道，乌克兰总统不可能在不咨询他的律师、议会或民众的情况下，就随便签一份转让数千亿美元矿产权益的文件。但这位财政部长觉得他必须执行特朗普的命令，不管这命令多么恶劣或荒谬。如果总统想清空加沙地带，把它变成一个赌场，那你就得去推销这个想法。在战争期间敲诈乌克兰？那你就得这么干。A serious U.S. president would recognize that Putin is playing a very weak hand that we should exploit. As The Economist noted last week, most of Russia’s “gains were in the first weeks of the war. In April 2022, following Russia’s retreat from the north of Ukraine, it controlled 19.6 percent of Ukrainian territory; its casualties (dead and wounded) were perhaps 20,000. Today Russia occupies 19.2 percent and its casualties are 800,000, reckon British sources. … More than half of the 7,300 tanks [Russia] had in storage are gone. Of those that remain, only 500 can be reconditioned quickly. By April, Russia may run out of its T-80 tanks. Last year it lost twice as many artillery systems as in the preceding two years. … The reallocation of resources from productive sectors to the military complex has fueled double-digit inflation. Interest rates are 21 percent.” 一个正经的美国总统会认识到，普京目前的处境非常不利，我们应该加以利用。正如《经济学人》上周所指出的，俄罗斯“大部分的‘战果’是在战争的最初几周取得的。2022年4月从乌克兰北部撤军后，俄罗斯控制了乌克兰19.6%的领土；其伤亡人数（死亡和受伤）可能达到了2万人。据英国方面估计，如今俄罗斯控制着19.2%的领土，而其伤亡人数已达80万。……俄罗斯库存的7300辆坦克已经损失过半。剩下的那些坦克里，只有500辆能迅速修复。到4月，俄罗斯的T-80坦克可能就会消耗殆尽。去年，它损失的火炮系统数量是此前两年的两倍…… 将资源从生产部门重新调配到军工综合体，已经引发了两位数的通货膨胀。利率达到了21%。”If this were poker, Putin is holding a pair of twos and bluffing by going all in. Trump, instead of calling Putin’s bluff, is saying, “I think I’ll fold.”如果这是在玩扑克牌，普京手里握着一对2，却虚张声势地要押上全部赌注。而特朗普没有拆穿普京，反而说：“我还是弃牌吧。”Instead of rallying all our European allies, doubling down on the military pressure on Putin and making the Russian leader “an offer he can’t refuse,” Trump did just the opposite. He divided us from our allies at the U.N. by refusing to join them in a resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine — voting with the likes of North Korea — and began a lie-filled campaign to delegitimize Zelensky, not Putin.特朗普没有团结我们所有的欧洲盟友，没有加大对普京的军事压力，让这位俄罗斯领导人接受一个“他无法拒绝的提议”。他完全走在相反的方向。在联合国，他拒绝与盟友们一起通过谴责俄罗斯侵略乌克兰的决议——与朝鲜这样的国家投了相同的票，从而使我们与盟友产生分歧，并且还发起了一场充满谎言的运动，试图诋毁泽连斯基而不是普京的合法性。Besides falsely claiming that Ukraine started the war, Trump declared that Zelensky’s popularity rating is 4 percent (his popularity rating is 57 percent, 13 points higher than Trump’s) and that Zelensky is a “dictator” and should submit to an election. Meanwhile, he gave Putin — who sentenced his biggest rival for the presidency, Alexei Navalny, to a total of 28 years in an Arctic hellhole, where he mysteriously died — a total free pass. 除了谎称是乌克兰挑起了战争，特朗普还宣称泽连斯基的支持率只有4%（实际上泽连斯基的支持率是57%，比特朗普的支持率高出13个百分点），还说泽连斯基是个“独裁者”，应该举行选举。与此同时，他对普京却是毫不追究——普京判处总统之位的头号竞争对手阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼总共28年监禁，让他在北极的一个地狱般的地方服刑，最终在那里离奇死亡。Zelensky apparently feels he has no choice but to sign some kind of cockamamie minerals deal, even though Trump is demanding three times or four times the roughly $120 billion the United States has given Ukraine in military, humanitarian and other financial aid — aid Ukrainians used to fight to protect the West from the Russian aggressor. 显然，泽连斯基觉得自己别无选择，只能签署某种荒唐的矿产协议，尽管特朗普要求的金额是美国给乌克兰的约1200亿美元军事、人道主义及其他财政援助的三到四倍——而乌克兰人正是用这些援助来抵御俄罗斯侵略者，保护西方的。The whole thing is just shameful. Trump, in effect, is looking to make a profit off Ukrainians as a result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine while making no demand on Putin for reparations or promising any future U.S. protection for Kyiv. As the White House made clear, “This economic agreement with Ukraine will not be a guarantee of future aid for war, nor will it include any commitment of U.S. personnel in the region.”整件事都太可耻了。实际上，特朗普是想通过普京入侵乌克兰这件事从乌克兰人身上获取好处，同时不要求普京赔偿，也不承诺美国未来会保护基辅。正如白宫明确表示的那样，“与乌克兰达成的这项经济协议不会成为未来为战争提供援助的保证，也不会包括美国向该地区派驻任何人员的承诺。”I have no problem with America asking for preferred access for our companies to investments in Ukraine’s natural resources after the war, as a thank-you for our aid. But doing it now, and with no security guarantees in return? Don Corleone would be embarrassed to ask for that. But not Don Trump.我不反对美国在战后要求我们的公司优先获得对乌克兰自然资源的投资，作为对我们援助的感谢。但是现在就这么做，而且没有安全保障作为回报？唐·柯里昂都不好意思提这样的要求。但唐·特朗普好意思。Trump completely misreads Putin. He thinks Putin just needs a little positive attention, a little understanding, a little concern for his security needs — a hug! — and he will sign the peace Trump so badly desires. Nonsense. As the Russia specialist Leon Aron, the author of the acclaimed “Riding the Tiger: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the Uses of War,” remarked to me: Putin is not looking for “peace in Ukraine. He is looking for victory in Ukraine" — because without a victory, “he is very vulnerable at home. Capitalist democracies will do anything for peace, and Putin’s autocracy will do anything for victory. We need to switch that around.”特朗普完全看错了普京。他认为普京只需要一点积极的关注，一点理解，一点对他安全需求的关心——一个拥抱！——他就会签署特朗普非常渴望的和平协议。无稽之谈。俄罗斯问题专家、广受好评的《骑虎——弗拉基米尔·普京的俄罗斯及其战争用途》(Riding the Tiger: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the Uses of War)一书的作者莱昂·阿隆告诉我说：普京并不是在寻求“乌克兰的和平”。他寻求的是在乌克兰取得胜利”——因为如果没有胜利，“他在国内就非常脆弱。资本主义民主国家会为和平做任何事，普京的独裁政权则会为胜利做任何事。我们需要改变这种状况。”The way to do that, Aron added, would be by signaling to Putin that the Western allies will see his bet and raise him one — “not maligning a heroic nation” that has been fighting to preserve a Europe whole and free.阿隆还说，改变的方法是向普京发出信号：面对普京的下注，西方盟国不但会跟，而且还会再加上一注——“不要中伤一个英勇的民族”，这个民族一直在为维护欧洲的完整和自由而战。We should back the Ukrainians to get the best deal they can. It will most likely have to include a cease-fire in place, so that Putin’s de facto control of parts of eastern Ukraine is acknowledged; a moratorium on Ukrainian membership in NATO; and a lifting of Western sanctions on Russia, but only once Russia demobilizes its offensive army from Ukrainian soil. In return, Putin will have to accept European peacekeeping troops in, and a no-fly-zone over, a free and sovereign Ukraine, backstopped by the United States to guarantee that Putin’s army cannot return, plus Russian noninterference in Ukraine’s process of entering the European Union.我们应该支持乌克兰人争取最好的协议。它很可能必须包括：停火，这样才能承认普京对乌克兰东部部分地区的实际控制；暂停乌克兰加入北约；以及西方解除对俄罗斯的制裁，但前提是俄罗斯将其进攻性军队从乌克兰领土上撤离。作为回报，普京必须接受欧洲维和部队进驻乌克兰，并在乌克兰上空设立禁飞区，让乌克兰拥有自由和主权，由美国提供支持，以保证普京的军队不会返回乌克兰，此外，俄罗斯不得干涉乌克兰加入欧盟的进程。It is critical that the United States insist Ukraine be allowed to enter the European Union — a negotiating process that Kyiv is in the midst of right now. I want Russians to look over at Ukraine every day and see a prosperous, Slavic, free-market democracy and ask themselves why they are living in Putin’s Slavic thieving autocracy. In my view, this whole war has never been about Putin keeping Ukraine out of NATO. It is Ukraine in the E.U. that Putin really fears.至关重要的是，美国要坚持允许乌克兰加入欧盟——基辅目前正处于这一谈判进程之中。我希望俄罗斯人每天看着乌克兰，看到的是一个繁荣的、斯拉夫的、自由市场的民主国家，然后问问自己，为什么他们自己生活在普京的斯拉夫盗窃独裁统治下。在我看来，整场战争从来都不是普京不让乌克兰加入北约的问题。普京真正害怕的是乌克兰加入欧盟。A Russian international affairs scholar, who can speak only privately, remarked to me from Moscow that Putin’s team sees Trump’s team as a clown car, full of amateurs — easy pickings for the savvy and cynical Putin’s ultimate goal: “MRGA — Make Russia Great Again (and Make America Less Great Again).” Putin’s long-term goal, he added, is to manage the decline of U.S. hegemony so that America is “just one of the peer great powers,” focused on the Western Hemisphere and withdrawn militarily from Europe and Asia. Putin sees Trump as his blunt instrument “to manage that inevitable decline.”一位只能私下谈论，无法透露姓名的俄罗斯国际事务学者在莫斯科对我说，普京的团队把特朗普的团队视为一辆小丑车，里面全是业余选手——他们很容易成为精明而冷漠自私的普京的最终目标：“MRGA——让俄罗斯再次伟大（并让美国再次不那么伟大）。”他还说，普京的长期目标是应对美国霸权衰落的局面，使美国成为“同等大国之一”，专注于西半球，从欧洲和亚洲撤出军事力量。普京认为特朗普是他手中的一件钝器，让他可以“管理这种不可避免的衰落”。Will Trump and his G.O.P. bobbleheads ever wake up to that? Maybe — when it’s too late.特朗普和他的共和党点头娃娃会意识到这一点吗？也许吧，也许等到来不及的时候会醒过来。托马斯·L·弗里德曼(Thomas L. Friedman)是外交事务方面的专栏作者。他1981年加入时报，曾三次获得普利策奖。他著有七本书，包括赢得国家图书奖的《从贝鲁特到耶路撒冷》(From Beirut to Jerusalem)。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。翻译：杜然、晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site