Markets seem less prepared than usual for a positive surprise out of NVDA earnings. The stock’s implied move is the lowest since mid/late 2023, which is also the last time calls were as cheap relative to puts as they are today. It’s true that both NVDA and the Semis sector have been mostly flat for 8-9 months. But that may only prove an opportunity to add exposure to what we still think is a major right tail risk for AI stocks (owing to the combination of bubble likelihood + large US policy experiment + US/China arms race). And our NVDA analyst has reiterated his Buy rating into earnings. Timing the next sharp rally remains challenging, so we would take advantage of the historically attractive entry point to buy short-dated NVDA calls. And we still like worst-of calls on SMH (Semis) & KWEB (China Tech) to position for global AI upside at a discount and with limited risk.