Subdued growth not proof of restrictive policy.Can't say with confidence policy is restrictive.The nature of the inflation process is likely to have changed lastingly.We are transitioning from a global "savings glut" towards a global "bond glut".First, a higher R* calls for careful monitoring of when monetary policy ceases to be restrictive.There is still ample excess liquidity.The natural rate of interest in the Euro Area has increased appreciably over the past two years.If QT leads to a scarcity of reserves, it may cause the overall convenience yield to rise and hence equilibrium rates to fall.It is becoming increasingly unlikely that current financing conditions are materially holding back consumption and investment. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.