PATRICIA COHEN2025年2月25日自2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，据估计有1000家公司已经离开俄罗斯或减少了在该国的业务。 Maxim Shemetov/ReutersThe Trump administration is sending a startling message to corporate America: After three years as an international pariah, Russia could once again be open for business.特朗普政府正在向美国企业界发出一个令人震惊的信息：在经历了三年的国际孤立后，俄罗斯可能将再次开门做生意。President Trump is pressuring Ukraine to accept a deal to end the war. And Marco Rubio, his secretary of state, told a delegation from Moscow in Riyadh last week that the United States and Russia could pursue “potentially historic economic partnerships” and “incredible opportunities,” if Moscow ended its war.特朗普总统正在向乌克兰施压，要求它接受结束战争的协议。而国务卿鲁比奥上周在利雅得告诉俄罗斯代表团，如果莫斯科方面结束战争，美俄可以寻求“具有历史意义的经济伙伴关系”以及“难以置信的机遇”。The question, though, is whether American businesses are interested.但问题是，美国企业是否感兴趣。And the answer, analysts and investors agreed, is not likely.分析师和投资者一致认为，答案可能是否定的。“I don’t think America’s big businesses are going to rush back into Russia fast, if at all, and surely not soon,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.“我认为美国的大企业不会急于重返俄罗斯，就算会回去，肯定也不会很快，”高频经济的首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格说。The invasion of Ukraine launched by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in February 2022 caused a sudden and swift flight of foreign companies as the United States, Europe and other countries imposed punishing sanctions and cut off most trade. Since then, more than 1,000 corporations have left or curtailed operations, according to a database compiled by the Yale School of Management.俄罗斯总统普京在2022年2月发动了对乌克兰的入侵，美国、欧洲和其他国家实施了惩罚性制裁并切断了大部分贸易，导致外国企业突然迅速逃离。根据耶鲁大学管理学院编制的数据库，从那以后，已有1000多家公司离开或缩减了在俄业务。The Russia that they left, however, is not the Russia they would be returning to.然而，此俄罗斯早已不是彼俄罗斯。The country’s war-driven economy is struggling with 21 percent interest rates, labor shortages and a shrinking number of middle-class consumers.该国受战争驱动的经济正在努力应对21%的利率、劳动力短缺，以及中产阶级消费者数量减少的困境。Then there is the unpredictable business environment in a country where the rule of law can easily shapeshift into the ruler’s law. American companies must contend with the risk of Kremlin decrees that impose new fees, taxes and price controls; restrict the ability to send profits and dividends back home, sell assets or make management decisions; and seize private businesses.再者，在俄罗斯，法规可能随时被统治者改变，商业环境充满不确定性。美国企业必须应对克里姆林宫颁布法令施加新收费、税收和价格管制的风险；对于将利润和股息汇回国内、出售资产或做出管理决策所施加的限制；以及查封私人企业的风险。上周，国务卿鲁比奥在利雅得。他对来自莫斯科的代表团说，美国和俄罗斯可以寻求“具有历史意义的经济伙伴关系”。In just the last month, the government has stepped up efforts to expropriate Russian-owned businesses as well. And on Friday, Mr. Putin declared that he wanted Russian companies to have “certain advantages” over foreign ones “that return to the market.”就在上个月，政府还扩大了对俄罗斯企业的征用。周五，普京宣布，他希望俄罗斯公司比“重返该市场”的外国公司拥有“某些优势”。There is also the possibility of further policy shifts on Russia in Washington, if not now, then possibly in four years, after the next election.华盛顿也有可能进一步改变对俄政策，就算不是现在，四年后可能也会有，也就是下一次选举之后。“No one is going to spend a lot of money in Russia if they think the policy is going to change overnight,” said Mark Walker, a senior adviser in the sovereign advisory practice at Lazard, an investment bank. And Moscow cannot be trusted to stay open to foreign investment. “It’s a regime that’s hard to do business with,” he said.“如果人们认为政策会一夜之间改变，那就没有人会愿意在俄罗斯投入大量资金，”投资银行拉扎德的主权咨询业务高级顾问马克·沃克说。不能保证莫斯科会持续对外国投资开放。“这是一个很难做生意的政权，”他说。Even if the United States were to lift all of its sanctions, thousands of others imposed by the European Union, Britain, Japan and other countries could remain in place, hampering supply chains and threatening company profits. On Monday, the European Union approved a 16th package of sanctions against Russia.即使美国解除了所有制裁，欧盟、英国、日本和其他国家实施的数千项其他制裁仍可能维持不变，从而阻碍了供应链，并威胁到公司利润。周一，欧盟批准了对俄罗斯的第16轮制裁。“The Russian business environment is extremely difficult, the risk of expropriation is high and the Russian economy is not exactly booming,” said Agathe Demarais, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.“俄罗斯的商业环境极其困难，被征用的风险很高，俄罗斯经济也远谈不上繁荣，”欧洲对外关系委员会高级政策研究员阿加特·德马雷斯说。The American firms that have stayed in Russia don’t fully control their revenues and assets, Ms. Demarais said. Companies deemed “unfriendly” by the Kremlin often had to sell their businesses for pennies on the dollar and pay a 35 percent surcharge — labeled a “voluntary” contribution — to the government. Those that remained have been barred from returning a large chunk of their profits to their home country. 德马雷斯说，留在俄罗斯的美国公司无法完全控制自己的收入和资产。被克里姆林宫视为“不友好”的公司往往不得不以极低的价格出售业务，并向政府支付35%的附加费——被称为“自愿”捐款。那些留下来的企业被禁止将大部分利润汇回本国。Other Western firms like Danone, Carlsberg and the Germany energy company Uniper have had their assets seized.其他西方公司，如达能、嘉士伯和德国能源公司Uniper的资产也都被俄罗斯政府没收。The Trump administration is pursuing what most analysts believe are fanciful economic opportunities in Russia as it has targeted Mexico and Canada, which are America’s biggest trading partners. U.S. manufacturers have complained that the president’s threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on those two longtime allies would cause severe harm by increasing costs and disrupting supply chains.特朗普政府现在所追求的，在大多数分析人士看来，是俄罗斯的一些不切实际的经济机会，同时他又将目标对准了美国最大的贸易伙伴墨西哥和加拿大。美国制造商抱怨说，总统威胁要对这两个长期盟友征收25%的关税，这将会增加成本并扰乱供应链，从而造成严重伤害。Russia, of course, controls vast swaths of land, a storehouse of oil and gas and a nuclear arsenal. But it has been a bit player in the global economy. Before its troops invaded Ukraine, the country was responsible for just 1.7 percent of the world’s total output.当然，俄罗斯控制着广阔的土地和丰富的石油天然气储备，还有强大的核武库。但它在全球经济中一直是一个小角色。在入侵乌克兰之前，俄罗斯仅占世界总产出的1.7%。Trade with the United States was minuscule. In 2021, exports to Russia accounted for 0.4 percent of total U.S. exports — roughly the same amount as Honduras. And most multinationals in Russia earned no more than 1 percent of their global revenues there, according to researchers at Yale.俄罗斯与美国的贸易微不足道。2021年，对俄出口仅占美国出口总额的0.4%——与洪都拉斯大致相同。耶鲁大学的研究人员发现，大多数在俄罗斯的跨国公司在该市场获得的收入不及全球总收入的1%。“Even before 2022, the environment was already challenging, but there was money to be made,” said Elina Ribakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “Now the risks have increased dramatically, but there is no money to be made.”“甚至在2022年之前，那里的环境就已经充满挑战，但还是有钱可赚，”华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员埃琳娜·里巴科娃说。“现在风险急剧增加，却没有钱可赚了。”In the 2000s, the soaring price of oil fueled a growing Russian middle class with an appetite for foreign goods and cars. “That dynamic no longer exists,” said Ms. Ribakova, who is also vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics.在2000年代，石油价格飙升推动俄罗斯的中产阶级不断壮大，他们对外国商品和汽车的需求很大。“这种动力已经不复存在，”同时还是基辅经济学院外交政策副院长的里巴科娃说。And Russia’s No. 1 export — oil and gas — directly competes with the United States’ own energy sector. Even U.S. oil companies that once had operations in Russia, like Exxon Mobil, do not appear eager to make big investments there.俄罗斯的第一大出口产品——石油和天然气——与美国自己的能源产业存在直接竞争的关系。即使是曾经在俄罗斯开展业务的美国石油公司，如埃克森美孚，似乎也不急于在那里进行大规模投资。The United States, the European Union and dozens of other countries have also severed a wide range of financial ties with Russia. They jointly barred many Russian banks from using Swift, the system used around the world to complete financial transactions. And they froze billions of dollars owned by the Russian government but held in Western banks.美国、欧盟和其他数十个国家还切断了与俄罗斯广泛的金融联系。他们共同禁止了许多俄罗斯银行使用Swift，该系统在全球范围内被用于金融交易。他们还冻结了俄罗斯政府存放在西方银行的数千亿美元。The United States, which dominates global banking, could abandon this united front. Mr. Trump could decide to permit American banks to once again process transactions in dollars involving Russia. That would remove an enormous barrier that has crippled many companies’ ability to conduct business with Russia.主导全球银行业的美国可能会放弃这一统一战线。特朗普可能会决定允许美国银行再次处理涉及俄罗斯的美元交易。这将消除许多公司与俄罗斯开展业务的一个巨大障碍。According to Yale’s tally, roughly two dozen American companies, including franchised restaurant outlets of Subway and T.G.I. Fridays, are still doing business in Russia. Dozens of companies are operating but have postponed new investments and slimmed down operations.根据耶鲁大学的统计，大约有二十几家美国公司，包括赛百味和星期五美式餐厅的特许经营店，仍在俄罗斯开展业务。数十家公司仍在运营，但暂停新投资并缩减了业务规模。俄罗斯圣彼得堡街头的一家赛百味。包括赛百味和星期五美式餐厅的特许经营店在内，大约20多家美国公司仍在俄罗斯开展业务。Companies that stayed in Russia would probably welcome an end to U.S. sanctions. And Russian officials are trying to pique American interest. On Friday, the first deputy prime minister, Denis Manturov, said the government would consider allowing Boeing to resume the purchase of titanium if the company was ready to return, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.留在俄罗斯的公司可能会欢迎美国解除制裁。俄罗斯官员也在努力吸引美国的兴趣。据俄罗斯通讯社国际文传电讯社报道，周五，俄罗斯第一副总理曼图罗夫表示，如果波音公司准备重返俄罗斯市场的话，政府将考虑允许该公司继续购买钛金属。But deterrents to re-entering Russia remain.但重返俄罗斯的障碍仍然存在。Unwinding the tangle of sanctions — as well as countermeasures enacted by the Russian government — would be a long and complicated process. So would sorting out the legal and financial mishmash left by the exit of foreign companies. 解除错综复杂的制裁——以及俄罗斯政府制定的反制措施——将是一个漫长而复杂的过程。要厘清外国公司退出后留下的法律和财务上的混乱，也需要时间。Mike Mayo, a bank analyst at Wells Fargo, said it’s unlikely that any American banks would return to Russia. “Never say never,” he said, but “Wall Street has become much more surgical about where they make their investments relative to times past.”富国银行的银行分析师迈克·梅奥表示，美国的银行不太可能重返俄罗斯。“永远不要说永远，”他说，“但与过去相比，华尔街在投资地点的选择上变得更加谨慎了。”Citigroup had the largest presence in Russia of any American bank but has mostly exited. There’s almost no chance that it would return, particularly since it has been retreating on consumer banking in most global markets. A spokeswoman for Citigroup declined to comment. 花旗集团在俄罗斯的业务规模是所有美国银行中最大的，但大部分已经退出。鉴于它已在全球大多数市场撤出消费银行业务，其回归的可能性微乎其微。花旗集团的发言人拒绝置评。莫斯科街头的花旗银行，摄于2022年。战争开始前，该银行在俄罗斯的业务规模是所有美国银行中最大的，但开战后已撤离了大部分业务。Many companies are still sitting on losses. PIMCO, one of the world’s largest asset managers, saw the value of its Russian bond holdings decline by more than $1 billion in 2022.许多公司仍在亏损。PIMCO是全球最大的资产管理公司之一，其持有的俄罗斯债券价值在2022年下降了逾10亿美元。“I think there will be more interest in recovering old investments rather than taking on new risk,” said Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations.“我认为，人们会更有兴趣恢复旧投资，而不是承担新风险，”美国外交关系委员会的经济学家布拉德·塞策说。Even some debt investors who built their careers betting on dicey outcomes said it was too soon to be thinking about returning to Russia.即使是一些押注风险为业的债务投资者也表示，现在考虑重返俄罗斯还为时过早。As Ms. Ribakova at the Peterson Institute said of Russia: “The biggest problem here is just that there’s not money to be made.”正如彼得森研究所的里巴科娃所说：“这里最大的问题是，俄罗斯根本就没有赚钱的机会。”Maureen Farrell、Joe Rennison、Danielle Kaye和Niraj Chokshi对本文有报道贡献。Patricia Cohen驻伦敦，撰写全球经济报道。点击查看更多关于她的信息。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。