袁莉2025年2月24日 Dongyan XuWhen Xi Jinping, China’s leader, made his entrance at a symposium with a group of top entrepreneurs this week, he seemed to be in good spirits.当中国领导人习近平上周出席跟一群杰出企业家的座谈会时，他看上去心情不错。China has had a few good weeks. The artificial intelligence models by the start-up DeepSeek sent U.S. stocks tumbling and Western commentators screaming, “Sputnik moment.” Then an animated film based on Chinese mythology raked in nearly $2 billion. Mr. Xi signaled that he stood behind the private sector at the meeting on Monday, pushing the Hong Kong stock market to its highest point in three years.中国过去几周好消息不断。初创公司DeepSeek的人工智能模型让美国股市暴跌，西方的评论人士惊呼这是一个“斯普特尼克时刻”。然后，一部根据中国神话改编的动画电影获得了超过130亿元的票房。习近平在上周一的会议上暗示他支持民营经济，推动香港股市达到三年来的最高点。For China, it all provided a respite from two years of malaise — chronic economic problems and challenging geopolitics.对中国来说，这一切都让它从两年来的低迷——长期存在的经济问题和严峻的地缘政治形势中得到了缓解。What remained unclear is how much of a lasting boost China’s economy could get from the ingenuity of one start-up, or how much confidence the business community could derive from the sudden friendliness of a leader who has a reputation for distrusting and disliking the private sector. Interpretations of the meeting varied widely.尚不清楚的是，一家初创企业的创新能给中国经济带来多大的持久推动，也不清楚一位以不信任和不喜欢民营经济而闻名的领导人突然表现出的友好态度能给商界带来多大的信心。对这次座谈会的解读各不相同。“Is China,” one social media commenter asked, “now like Shanghai in 1949,” after which the private sector was nationalized under Communist Party rule? “Or is it Shenzhen in 1979,” when China started the policies of reforming and opening up its economy?“现在的中国像1949年的上海?”有人在社交媒体上问道。1949年，民营经济在共产党统治下被国有化。“还是像1979年的深圳？”1979年，中国开始实行改革开放政策。“No one knows,” was the response from another commenter, who added that many of the senior leaders in attendance probably didn’t know, either.“每个人都没有底，”另一位评论者回应道，并表示，许多出席会议的高层领导可能也不知道。Both the lack of confidence and the desire to start anew are real, highlighting the country’s eagerness to get out of its slump and its uncertainty about its leader’s readiness to change course. The private sector also has good reasons to worry that Beijing could meddle more in businesses in the name of supporting them, suffocating innovation and competition.信心的缺乏和渴望重新开始都是真实存在的，凸显了中国摆脱经济低迷的迫切愿望，以及对领导人是否愿意改变路线的不确定性。民营部门也有充分理由担心，北京可能会以支持的名义进一步干预企业，从而扼杀创新和竞争。Mr. Xi summoned the meeting because he saw that the impact of DeepSeek, a mostly unknown start-up until last month, was much stronger than what he tried to achieve through a top-down approach, said Xu Chenggang, an economist at Stanford. “He wanted the private enterprises to help him find a way out of trouble,” he said.斯坦福大学经济学家许成钢表示，习近平之所以召集这次会议，是因为他看到DeepSeek带来的影响力比他试图通过自上而下的方法所取得的成功要大得多。DeepSeek直到上个月之前还只是一家鲜为人知的初创企业。“他希望民营企业能帮他找到摆脱困境的办法，”他说。中国领导人习近平本月在北京与科技企业首席执行官们一起出席民营企业座谈会。Mr. Xu, who is critical of Mr. Xi’s leadership and was among the first to point out China’s deflationary pressures, said that DeepSeek’s arrival and other positive news could bolster investors’ confidence, and that any persistent momentum could support the economy.许成钢对习近平的领导持批评态度，也是最早指出中国存在经济通缩压力的人之一。他表示，DeepSeek的推出和其他积极消息可能会增强投资者的信心，任何持续的势头都可能给经济带来支撑。“I don’t think the trend of economic decline will change,” he said. “However, China might be able to escape a serious crisis that started a year ago and shift to a steadier, yet sustained, decline, giving it a chance to catch its breath.”“我不认为整个经济增长逐渐下降的趋势会改变，”他说。“不过，中国或许能够摆脱一年前开始的严重危机，转向更平稳但持续的衰退，这给了它喘息的机会。”He said he also did not believe that DeepSeek or artificial intelligence could fix the root of China’s economic woes: weak demand. If anything, it could boost supply by making businesses more efficient, worsening the imbalance.他还表示，他也不相信DeepSeek或人工智能能够解决中国经济困境的根源——需求疲软。它反而可能会通过提高企业效率来增加供应，从而加剧失衡。Mr. Xi has high hopes for private enterprises and entrepreneurs. During the symposium, he told them that they should “firmly position themselves as builders of socialism with Chinese characteristics and promoters of Chinese modernization.” Mr. Xi urged them to pursue high-quality development and enhance independent innovation.习近平对民营企业和企业家寄予厚望。他在座谈会上告诉他们，要“坚定做中国特色社会主义的建设者、中国式现代化的促进者”。习近平敦促他们追求高质量发展，加强自主创新。In a nearly 10-minute segment about the symposium on state television, China’s most prominent entrepreneurs, mostly in tech and advanced manufacturing, stood respectfully and clapped vigorously as Mr. Xi walked in. After the meeting, they lined up to shake hands with him.在国家电视台播出的近10分钟的座谈会片段中，中国最杰出的企业家们（他们主要来自科技和先进制造业领域）在习近平走进会场时毕恭毕敬地起立，热烈鼓掌。会后，他们排起长队与习近平握手。A couple of the founders wore what’s called the “Xi jacket” — a dark, zippered windbreaker that the Chinese leader often wears and that has become the unofficial uniform of Chinese officialdom. As Mr. Xi spoke, many of the executives, seated before him like university students, were shown on the segment taking notes. Among them was Jack Ma, the founder of the e-commerce giant Alibaba and the online financial behemoth Ant Group, who was the first target of a crackdown on tech that Mr. Xi carried out during the pandemic.几位创始人穿着所谓的“习夹克”——习近平经常穿的一种深色拉链防风夹克，它已成为中国官场的非正式制服。新闻画面显示，习近平讲话时，许多企业高管像大学生一样坐在他面前记笔记。其中包括电子商务巨头阿里巴巴和在线金融巨头蚂蚁集团的创始人马云，他是习近平在疫情期间打击科技行业的首个目标。“The meeting felt like a teacher lecturing students,” a venture capitalist who invested in some of China’s most successful tech start-ups told me. “The market reaction surprised me — it was overly optimistic.”“这次会议就像是老师给学生上课，”一位投资过中国一些最成功科技初创企业的风险投资家告诉我。“市场的反应让我吃惊——过于积极了。”The private sector contributes over 50 percent of China’s fiscal revenue, more than 60 percent of its economic output, more than 80 percent of urban employment and over 90 percent of the total number of enterprises, according to the state broadcaster.据央视报道，民营经济贡献了中国50%以上的财政收入，60%以上的国内生产总值，80%以上的城镇劳动就业，以及90%以上的企业数量。A businessperson who employs thousands of people in China told me that it was in the party’s interest to treat entrepreneurs better. “If the private sector collapses, China’s economy will be gone,” he said.一位在中国雇佣了数千员工的商人告诉我，更好地对待企业家符合党的利益。“如果民营部门崩溃，中国经济就完了，”他说。At the meeting, Mr. Xi talked, as he often does, about his experience working in provinces where the private companies were highly competitive. But his economic thinking can be summed up as: bigger role for the state, and smaller role for the market. Under his rule, China pulled back from pro-business policies that transformed it into the world’s No. 2 economy. It smothered its most successful tech companies, sending accomplished entrepreneurs to early retirement or self-imposed exile.在这次会议上，习近平像往常一样谈到了他在民营企业竞争力很强的省工作的经历。但他的经济思想可以概括为：国家的作用更大，市场的作用更小。在他的领导下，中国放弃了亲商政策——正是这些政策让中国成为了世界第二大经济体。中国还扼杀了最成功的科技公司，让成功的企业家提前退休或主动选择流亡。Now as the country’s economy struggles and artificial intelligence demonstrates its sway in China’s most important geopolitical rivalry, with the United States, Mr. Xi has been showing some warmth toward the private sector.现在，随着中国经济陷入困境，以及人工智能在中国最重要的地缘政治竞争中——对手是美国——展现出影响力，习近平开始对民营部门表现出了一些热情。A founder of a publicly listed company told me that he believed the Communist Party, which does not allow any force to rival it for power, would always be wary of the private sector.一位上市公司的创始人告诉我，他认为，共产党不允许任何势力与其争夺权力，因此对民营企业会永远保持警惕。A lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions told me that he did not see signs of economic recovery as he walked through Shanghai. But he agreed that it was good that people were talking about the successes of DeepSeek and “Ne Zha 2,” the animated blockbuster. Some investors are hoping that the government will announce more substantial policies during the annual parliamentary sessions in March, he said.一位专门从事并购业务的律师告诉我，他在上海街头没有看到经济复苏的迹象。但他同意，人们谈论DeepSeek和动画大片《哪吒2》的成功是件好事。他说，一些投资者希望政府能在3月的年度“两会”期间宣布更多实质性政策。The lawyer, like the other businesspeople I interviewed, asked not to be named for fear of retaliation for speaking publicly.与我采访过的其他商人一样，这位律师也要求匿名，因为担心公开发表言论会遭到报复。DeepSeek在北京的办公楼。习近平在看到DeepSeek的影响力后召集了这次座谈会。DeepSeek直到上个月之前还只是一家鲜为人知的初创企业。China’s state media and government have heralded DeepSeek’s and A.I.’s potential to boost economic growth. In the past few weeks, China’s three major telecom operators, the state utility and major oil companies, as well as tech giants like Tencent and Baidu, have announced partnerships with DeepSeek. Some provinces have said they will integrate DeepSeek’s models into their government service systems.中国官方媒体和政府都大力宣传DeepSeek和AI促进经济增长的潜力。过去几周，中国三大电信运营商、国有公用事业公司和大型石油公司，以及腾讯和百度等科技巨头都宣布与DeepSeek建立合作伙伴关系。一些省份表示，将把DeepSeek的模型整合到政府服务系统中。While these deals were good news for DeepSeek and could improve the productivity of these institutions, they could come at the expense of other artificial intelligence companies.虽然这些交易对于DeepSeek来说是个好消息，也可以提高这些机构的生产力，但可能会以牺牲其他人工智能公司为代价。“DeepSeek’s real impact is the destruction of other Chinese A.I. language models,” Jielin Dong, a researcher of China’s tech industry, wrote on X, “as all resources are flowing toward DeepSeek, making it difficult for others to secure funding and market opportunities.” A founder of an A.I. start-up said DeepSeek was significant for China but agreed with Ms. Dong’s assessment that it would divert funding.“DeepSeek真正的影响是摧毁其他中国人工智能语言模型，”中国科技行业研究员董洁林在X上写道，“所有资源都流向DeepSeek，这使得其他人很难获得资金和市场机会。”一家人工智能初创公司的创始人表示，DeepSeek对中国意义重大，但他同意董洁林的评估，即它会转移市场上的资金。The venture capitalist who believed that the market was overly optimistic expressed concern that too much government attention could hurt DeepSeek. The company’s founder, Liang Wenfeng, who attended the symposium with Mr. Xi, is now spending time attending political meetings and pleasing officials high and low, the venture capitalist said.那位认为市场过于乐观的风险投资家表示，他担心政府的过度关注可能会伤害DeepSeek。他说，该公司创始人梁文锋参加了习近平出席的座谈会，现在他正花费时间参加政治会议，取悦上上下下的官员。But that’s a fate DeepSeek and other successful private enterprises might not be able to avoid.但DeepSeek和其他成功的民营企业可能无法避免这种命运。After the symposium, a video skit on WeChat showed a conversation between a mandarin and a businessman in the Ming dynasty. “How exactly should we manage things to bring some life into the market?” the mandarin asked. “Just leave it alone,” the businessman replied.座谈会结束后，微信上的一则短视频展示了明朝一位官员和一位商人之间的对话。官员问道：“我们到底应该如何管理才能让市场活跃起来？”商人回答说：“别管它。”The video has since been deleted.该视频目前已被删除。袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。点击查看更多关于她的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site