Country: Syrian Arab Republic Source: ETANA Syria Please refer to the attached file. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWhile on-the-ground security dynamics remain fractious and unpredictable, caretaker authorities inDamascus managed to yield tentative concessions from armed groups around the country (with theexception of Suwayda). The formation of a Southern Division and promising statements from theSyrian Democratic Forces (SDF) point to a desire on both sides for temporary fixes vis-à-vis thecaretaker Ministry of Defense: so far, non-HTS armed groups seem to want to participate with theministry but without disarming or ceding organizational structures and geographical zones ofinfluence. In effect, Southern Division brigades will perpetuate the divisions that have defined thesouth for years—between eastern and western Daraa, Daraa and Suwayda, and competing factionson the ground—and a similar arrangement could develop in the north-east if talks continue toprogress. Meanwhile, the launch of a series of top-down meetings by the National DialogueConference’s preparatory committee have already cast considerable doubt on the process’ potentialfor meaningful outcomes, causing concern over the possibility of a genuine transitional processneeded for long-term stability.CARETAKER GOVERNANCELast week, southern faction leaders and the caretaker Ministry of Defense agreed to the formation of a so-called Southern Division within the new Syrian army. In order to “integrate” into the new Ministry of Defense, caretaker representatives asked the factions to hand over information on their numbers of fighters, weapons in their possession and military points. Since the meeting, several developments indicate that the formation of the division is underway, and the 5th Division’s headquarters in eastern Daraa’s Izra’a has been selected as the command headquarters for the new division. In theory, the latest steps are a modest sign of progress: the Defense Ministry has stepped-down demands for southern factions to disarm altogether; in turn, factions have demonstrated some willingness to comply with ministry demands—for example, Ahmad al-Awdeh’s groups are reportedly now compiling a list of names of fighters from their ranks. However, the Southern Division appears to be a temporary fix, meant to manage tensions between caretaker authorities and southern factions without formally integrating them into a national institution. In its current form, the Southern Division will still reflect the regional and factional divisions that have defined the south for years, with brigades representing Daraa, eastern Daraa, western Daraa and another (still to be negotiated) for Suwayda.SDF chief Mazloum Abidi expressed a willingness to integrate into the Syrian army and remove all foreign fighters from Syrian territory. The statement is a significant development in itself, likely indicating some positive progress made in negotiations with caretaker authorities in recent weeks. At the same time, the SDF will be unlikely to agree to fully disarm and integrate into the Ministry of Defense for the foreseeable future. Similar to talks over the Southern Division, it appears that non-HTS coalitions and factions are looking to de-escalate tensions without irrevocably disarming or subsuming into institutions led by The seven-member preparatory committee for the forthcoming, but as-yet-undated, National Dialogue Conference hosted its first sessions in Homs, Latakia, Hama and Idlib, and Daraa and Suwayda. Sessions focused on institution-building, constitutional reform and transitional justice. However, initial meetings cast considerable doubt on the process’ potential for meaningful outcomes based on the committee’s composition, superficial engagement with attendees and the format of the meetings themselves. The Self-Administration criticized recent announcements about the National Dialogue Conference, stating that “the participation of all parties…is a fundamental principle for the success of the conference.” However, preparatory committee member Huda al-Atassi said last week the conference will represent everyone in Syria—except for the Kurdish-led administration in the north-east and former regime elements.Caretaker President Ahmad al-Shara’a visited Idlib city and Afrin before travelling to Latakia and Tartous later in the week. Frequent talking-points from al-Shara’a focused on the National Dialogue Conference, accountability and transitional justice; the locations of his visits were undoubtedly significant because of their association with Syria’s ethnic (Kurdish) and sectarian (Alawi) minorities. While in Afrin, al-Shara’a met with local Kurdish representatives who shared grievances; al-Shara’a made promises to replace factions in the city with official security forces and to rein-in abuses against local Kurds. caretaker authorities.