EUR/USD: Options signal more downside for the dollarEuro vs US DollarACTIVTRADES:EURUSDActivTradesIon Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst After a difficult start of the year for the greenback, the US dollar seems to have slowed its decline... but not for long, if we look at options market activity. Traders are still aggressively bearish, especially against the euro and the yen. According to LSEG data, more than 59% of FX options volume on CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) is in dollar put contracts, reflecting a clear expectation of further depreciation. This pressure is particularly concentrated in EUR/USD, where flows are pointing to a euro rally driven by the expectation of more aggressive rate cuts in the US than in Europe. Since the beginning of the year, EUR/USD has swung wildly, influenced by rate differentials, macroeconomic data and the Fed's dovish turn. Although the ECB is also poised to cut rates, the market seems to be discounting a deeper and faster cycle in the US, which is weakening the dollar in the medium term. Technical Analysis Technically, if the pair manages to consolidate above 1.13366 we could see an advance to the nearby 1.14896 resistance. If this resistance is pierced we could contemplate a free upside move towards 1.18853. If these upside predictions are not fulfilled the pair should look for the mid-range checkpoint at 1.09223, if this area fails to hold we would see a drop to the lower end of the range at 1.053227. The mid-range crosses signal a clear uptrend and the RSI supports the idea of an overbought advance at the current 58.42%. In short, the options market leaves no room for doubt: investors have not yet closed the bearish chapter for the dollar, and the euro could be one of the major beneficiaries if the selling pressure continues. On the other hand, the CFD derivatives market signals a possible price increase. Which data to believe? We will have to be attentive to both situations. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.