#202527 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxMicro-DAX FuturesEUREX:FDXS1!priceactiontdsGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Clear triangle on the daily chart and mid point is 23850. Week closed at 23900. Market is in balance and I think it’s completely 50/50 for both sides where the breakout will happen. Given the tariff shit show, I would wait for it to happen and be flat until then. If they apply 10%+ tariffs on EU imports, we go down, if they postpone, we rally further. I trade only technicals but this is one of the few moments per year where news will completely determine where the markets will breakout out next. Big if. If orange face does another TACO move, momentum is strong enough for markets to keep going and squeeze further. We need a very strong daily bear bar to kill it. current market cycle: trading range - triangle key levels for next week: 23500 - 24300 (above 24300, 500 comes into play and also likely 600+) bull case: Bulls made a higher low but barely. This is a bad looking bull trend from the 23061 low and market is currently in breakout mode to decide where we go next. The 24283 high is a reasonable high to turn lower but as longs as bulls stay above 23600, there is a chance of this doing another try at 23300 and above the ugly bull channel is confirmed and higher prices are likely. Invalidation is below 23500 bear case: Bears keeping it below 24000 is good but they are not doing enough or we would have made lower lows below 23600. Everything depends on the US-EU tariffs over the next days. Technically all bullish targets are met and the 24283 was high enough to qualify as a re-test. Market is free to go down again, it just needs a catalyst. Invalidation is above 24300 short term: Neutral. I won’t gamble on the trade talk outcome but I am much more eager to sell this on bad news than to buy it on not-too-bad news. medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000.