NVIDIA: Is Wall Street's AI Darling Still a Good Investment? NVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDAWallstreet_AlchemistWhen you hear the name NVIDIA, what comes to mind? Chances are, you're thinking of gaming graphics cards, or perhaps the explosive rise of Artificial Intelligence. And you're not wrong — NVIDIA powers everything from ChatGPT to Tesla's self-driving tech. But behind all the hype, there's a more important question serious investors should ask: “Is NVIDIA still a smart investment at this price?” As a value investor who combines deep fundamental analysis with AI-powered tools, I’m going to walk you through a comprehensive breakdown of NVIDIA from a true value lens — one that strips away the hype and reveals the numbers that actually matter. Whether you're a beginner trying to learn how to value stocks or a seasoned investor looking for clarity, this guide will change the way you think about investing in companies like NVDA. Let’s dive in. 🧩 First: What Even Is NVIDIA? To understand whether NVIDIA is a good buy, you first need to understand what it actually does — and why it’s considered one of the most powerful companies of our time. 👇 TL;DR – NVIDIA in 3 Sentences: 💲It builds the GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) that power video games, AI models like ChatGPT, and high-performance computing in data centers. 💲It dominates the AI infrastructure market, which is growing faster than nearly any other tech vertical. 💲It's now worth over $3 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in human history. NVIDIA has become the "picks and shovels" of the AI gold rush. But just because a company is great… doesn’t mean it’s a great investment at any price. 🧠 Understanding Value: What Makes a Stock Undervalued or Overvalued? Before we dive into numbers, let’s get one thing straight: Value investing is not about buying cheap stocks. It’s about buying great businesses for less than they’re worth. To determine whether NVIDIA is undervalued, I ran it through six professional-grade valuation models and created a weighted average fair value, factoring in both upside potential and risk. These models include: ✅ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) ✅ Price-to-Earnings Multiples ✅ PEG Ratios ✅ Graham Formula ✅ Dividend Discount Model ✅ Forward Earnings Forecasts Sound complicated? It is. But I’ll walk you through every step — in plain English. 💵 Market Snapshot (as of June 2, 2025) Current Stock Price: $137.38 Consensus Price Target (from analysts): $171.62 My Fair Value Estimate (weighted model): $152.83 Upside Potential: ~11% conservatively, up to 27% if analyst targets are correct 📊 Let’s Break Down the Valuation Models — One by One 1️⃣ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Think of this like saying: “If I owned the entire company, how much cash would it make me in the future — and what is that worth today?” Assumptions: Revenue grows at 5% annually (very conservative) We use a 10% discount rate (standard) Future cash flows are modeled out 10 years 📈 Fair Value from DCF: $140.00 2️⃣ P/E Multiples (Price-to-Earnings) This method compares NVIDIA’s earnings to its price — kind of like asking, “How many dollars do I pay for each $1 in profit?” The S&P 500’s average P/E is ~20–25. NVIDIA’s is higher because it’s a growth company. 📈 Fair Value from P/E: $160.00 Based on applying an industry-adjusted multiple 3️⃣ Forward P/E Valuation Instead of looking backward at past earnings, this looks forward at projected earnings. If a company is growing fast, this method often shows better value. 📈 Fair Value from Forward P/E: $150.00 4️⃣ Graham Formula (Ben Graham’s Classic Approach) Ben Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, created this formula to calculate intrinsic value based on growth and earnings. You can read about Graham's formular here We applied very conservative growth assumptions to avoid overestimating. 📈 Fair Value from Graham Formula: $145.00 5️⃣ PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings/Growth) This tells us if the company’s price is justified based on how fast it’s growing. A PEG of 1.0 is considered fairly valued. 📈 NVIDIA PEG Ratio: 0.98 📈 Fair Value Estimate: $155.00 👉 Translation: It’s priced just right for its explosive growth 6️⃣ Dividend Discount Model (DDM) This is only useful for mature companies that pay dividends. NVIDIA reinvests most of its profits, so this model gives a low valuation. 📉 Fair Value from DDM: $130.00 But we’ll only weight this lightly, since the dividend is tiny. 📊 Final Verdict: Average Fair Value = $152.83 (weighted by models) Current price = $137.38 Undervalued by ~11% under conservative modeling ⚖️ How I Weighed the Models (And Why It Matters) Not every valuation model should be treated equally. Some are better suited for mature, dividend-paying companies. Others shine when analyzing high-growth innovators like NVIDIA. That’s why I didn’t just average all six models — I assigned weights based on relevance and reliability for this specific company. Here’s the logic behind each one: 🔹 Discounted Cash Flow (20%) NVIDIA generates massive free cash flow and has excellent visibility into future earnings — which makes DCF one of the most grounded ways to assess its intrinsic value. 🔹 Price-to-Earnings Multiple (20%) With strong profits and high margins, NVIDIA deserves comparison against peers in the semiconductor space. The P/E model helps anchor valuation in current profitability. 🔹 Forward P/E (10%) Because NVIDIA is growing rapidly, it's important to consider how the market is pricing in future earnings. However, since forward estimates can be speculative, I assigned it a lighter weight. 🔹 Graham Formula (20%) This classic value investing formula focuses on earnings and growth with a built-in margin of safety. It’s perfect for assessing quality businesses like NVIDIA using conservative assumptions. 🔹 PEG Ratio (15%) NVIDIA is growing earnings at a blistering pace. The PEG ratio adjusts the P/E multiple based on growth, giving us a powerful signal of whether the stock is expensive or not — especially for growth companies. 🔹 Dividend Discount Model (15%) Although NVIDIA pays a small dividend, it's not central to its investment case. I included the DDM for completeness, but gave it the lowest weighting because the company reinvests most of its profits into growth, not shareholder payouts. By applying these weights, I wasn’t just looking for a single “right” answer — I was building a balanced, multi-lens perspective on fair value. The result? A composite intrinsic value of $152.83, backed by a methodology that respects both fundamentals and growth dynamics. Now let’s zoom out and look at bigger signals of strength. 📚 Book Value Growth: The Hidden Gem Most People Miss Let’s talk about something almost every retail investor overlooks — Book Value Per Share (BVPS). Think of BVPS as the company’s “net worth per share.” It’s the raw value of what shareholders would receive if NVIDIA liquidated all its assets and paid off its debts. While most growth investors are obsessed with flashy revenue numbers and AI headlines, I always take time to peek under the hood — and what I found with NVIDIA is quietly impressive. Over the past five years, NVIDIA has steadily built shareholder value. In 2020, its book value per share sat at just $5.00. But by 2024, it had grown to $12.50. That’s not a fluke — it’s a 20% compounded annual growth rate. That’s the kind of consistent, behind-the-scenes compounding that Warren Buffett dreams about. Looking ahead, if that same growth trend continues, we could see BVPS hit around $31.00 by 2029. Apply a reasonable price-to-book multiple, and you’re staring at a potential valuation of $341.00 per share — a full 2.5x from today’s levels. 🔹 This isn’t hype. It’s quiet, compounding strength. 🔹 It’s what great businesses do while the world’s distracted by headlines. 🔍 The Metrics That Matter Metrics are just numbers — until you know what they actually mean. Here’s how I interpret NVIDIA’s financial DNA. 🔹 P/E Ratio at 44.31 — Yes, it’s high. But when you’re growing earnings 40% per year, that multiple starts to make sense. Growth is expensive — but NVIDIA is earning its premium. 🔹 Forward P/E at 28.33 — This reflects what investors are willing to pay based on projected future earnings. It signals that Wall Street still sees upside. 🔹 Return on Equity (ROE) at 106.92% — That’s not a typo. NVIDIA is generating more than double its net income for every dollar of shareholder equity. This is an elite business, deploying capital like few others. 🔹 Debt-to-Equity Ratio at 0.50 — Leverage is low, which means less risk. NVIDIA isn’t overextending itself, even as it scales aggressively. 🔹 Earnings Growth of 40% over 5 years — Very few large-cap companies are compounding at this rate. This is what separates a fast mover from a long-term compounder. 🔹 Free Cash Flow of $30B — Cash is king. And NVIDIA is sitting on a throne. This level of liquidity gives them options — to reinvest, acquire, or return capital to shareholders. These aren’t just stats to admire. They’re signals — and they all point in one direction: strength. 📰 What’s Happening Right Now? In the short term, NVIDIA has had some turbulence, but its fundamentals remain rock-solid. Here's what’s shaping its current narrative: 🔹 Record-breaking Q1 Revenue: $44.1 billion — up 69% year-over-year. Yes, you read that right. That kind of acceleration is unheard of at this scale. 🔹 The Blackwell Era Begins: Their new generation of chips is designed for “reasoning AI,” setting the stage for a whole new wave of demand. 🔹 Geopolitical Friction: Export controls and restrictions on China are projected to cost NVIDIA roughly $8 billion in lost sales. That’s real. But it’s also being offset by explosive growth in other global markets. 🔹 Inventory Write-Down: A $4.5 billion hit due to inventory adjustments. It's a short-term bruise, not a structural fracture. 🔹 Still Crushing Expectations: Even with these headwinds, NVIDIA continues to beat estimates and outperform peers. This is what execution looks like under pressure. The headlines might look shaky — but the engine is still roaring. 📈 Technicals: What Do the Charts Say? Even if you're a fundamentals-first investor like me, it pays to respect the chart. Momentum reflects psychology — and right now, sentiment is riding high. 🔹 Key support level at $130 — buyers step in here consistently. 🔹 Resistance zones at $143 and $150 — breaking above these could trigger further momentum. 🔹 50-day moving average at $135 — the stock is trading above this line, suggesting strength. 🔹 Golden Cross + Bull Flag — classic technical signals of an uptrend continuation. Bulls are still in control. When price action and fundamentals align — that’s when conviction turns into action. 🧠 Bottom Line: Should You Buy NVIDIA? Let’s get honest. NVIDIA is not a value trap. It’s a compounder — a business with the financials, growth, and market position to continue dominating for years. Is it risky? Yes. All growth stories are. But the data doesn’t lie: ✅ Strong balance sheet ✅ Massive cash flow ✅ Global AI leadership ✅ Undervalued by multiple models Even conservative valuation models suggest NVIDIA is trading below its true worth. 🚀 Want To Analyze Stocks Like This Without Doing All the Math? I built Wallstreet Alchemist AI to help investors do this kind of deep analysis — in seconds. It’s designed for people who want to think like Warren Buffett but move like a quant. 🎯 Try it today for free: 👉 https://wallstreetalchemist.pmfm.ai Let AI do the heavy lifting — while you make sharper, conviction-driven decisions. What stock do you want me to break down next? Drop a comment or DM me. This is the kind of investing edge I wish I had when I started. Let’s level up together.