NASDAQ 100 JUNE OUTLOOK BULLISH OR BEARISH ? RISK MANAGMENTUS Tech 100 IndexPEPPERSTONE:NAS100swannyleylandAs of June 1, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index is trading at 21,320. This marks a significant 24% rally from its recent lows, positioning the index near its all-time high of 22,175.60, achieved on February 19, 2025 . Given this context, it's crucial to assess the current technical landscape and develop a comprehensive risk management plan. 📊 Technical Analysis Overview 📈 Bullish Indicators Elliott Wave Structure: The index appears to be in the final stages of Wave 5, with potential for a push towards the 22,500–22,800 range. Fibonacci Extensions: The 1.618 extension from the recent low targets approximately 22,600, aligning with previous resistance levels. Volume Analysis: Recent upswings have been accompanied by increased volume, suggesting strong buying interest. MACD & RSI: Both indicators are in bullish territory, with the MACD above its signal line and RSI approaching overbought conditions. Bearish Indicators MACD Divergence: A potential bearish crossover below the centerline could signal weakening momentum. Rising Wedge Pattern: The formation of a rising wedge suggests a possible reversal, with a breakdown below 19,400 potentially leading to a decline towards 18,700–18,200 . Sentiment Indicators: Elevated volatility indices (VIX and VXN) reflect market uncertainty and risk aversion. 🔮 Scenario Analysis 1. Bullish Continuation to All-Time Highs Criteria: Sustained trading above 21,500, with increasing volume and positive momentum indicators. Targets: 22,600–22,800, aligning with Fibonacci extensions and previous resistance levels. Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders below 21,000 to protect against unforeseen reversals. 2. Range-Bound Consolidation Criteria: Price oscillates between 21,000 and 21,500 without clear directional movement. Strategy: Implement range-trading strategies, buying near 21,000 support and selling near 21,500 resistance. Risk Management: Tighten stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses during periods of low volatility. 3. Bearish Reversal to Fill Gap at 19,300 Criteria: Breakdown below 21,000, confirming a bearish trend. Targets: 19,300 (gap fill) and 18,700–18,200, based on rising wedge breakdown projections. Risk Management: Consider hedging positions with inverse ETFs or options strategies to mitigate downside risk. ⚠️ Risk Management Plan for Bearish Scenario Entry Signal: Daily close below 21,000, confirming breakdown from rising wedge pattern. Stop-Loss Placement: Above 21,500 to allow for potential false breakdowns. Position Sizing: Limit exposure to 1–2% of total portfolio to manage risk effectively. Hedging Strategies: Utilize inverse ETFs (e.g., QID) or long put options on QQQ to profit from downward movements. Regular Monitoring: Review positions daily, adjusting stop-loss orders and taking profits as necessary based on market developments. 📉 Summary The Nasdaq 100's current technical landscape presents both opportunities and risks. While bullish indicators suggest potential for new all-time highs, bearish patterns warrant caution. Implementing a disciplined risk management plan, including clear entry and exit strategies, stop-loss placements, and position sizing, is essential to navigate the market's volatility effectively,