US dollar (USD)Much of the concern over the US economic outlook has stemmed from weakness in the so-called ‘soft data’ (consumer and business sentiment, economic surveys). US soft data fell to its lowest since mid-2024 by late April 2025.Hard data, by contrast, remains resilient. US NFP growth, on a three-month moving average basis, remains solid at around 150k, and we have not seen a sharp fall in consumer spending in retail sales data. Q1 GDP, though dragged down by trade data, did suggest that underlying consumption and investment in the US economy remains firm.We may start to see soft data surprise to the upside as the April tariff concerns fade. May PMI data for the US were better than expected (in contrast to the EU), while Conference Board Consumer Confidence showed a surge in expectations post the 90-day tariff pause. Steady improvement in survey data may help support the USD at the margin. Regional Fed manufacturing surveys, though broadly still weak, suggest a small rebound in activity for May on easing tariff concerns.US GDP nowcasts also still point to robust US growth, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow suggesting a 2.2% annualised growth for Q2.In the week ahead, the hypothesis of recovering US data will be tested with the ISM surveys and NFP on Friday night. That said, signs of a resilient labour market and economy are still likely to only marginally help the USD for now, as concerns over the US fiscal outlook and tariff policy trajectory remain. This has been complicated by the International Trade Court’s ruling this week that the new US tariffs are illegal.Data surprises may temporarily benefit the USD, but more so against the CHF and JPY. In the week ahead, we are broadly neutral on the USD.