黄安伟2025年5月30日上海的一个港口。几十年来，中国制造的商品价格相对低廉，美国消费者从中受益。 The New York TimesThe Trump administration has threatened to revoke the visas of many of the 277,000 or so Chinese students in the United States and to subject future applicants from China, including Hong Kong, to extra scrutiny.特朗普政府威胁要撤销在美约27.7万名中国学生中相当一部分人的签证，并在未来对来自中国（包括香港）的申请者进行额外审查。Cargo ships laden with goods from China stopped coming into American ports earlier this spring as President Trump escalated his trade war against Beijing.今年春天早些时候，随着特朗普总统对中国的贸易战升级，美国港口不再涌入满载中国货物的货船。And the Trump administration is suspending sales of some critical U.S. technologies to China, including those related to jet engines, semiconductors and certain chemicals and machinery.特朗普政府还暂停向中国出售一些关键的美国技术，包括与喷气发动机、半导体和某些化学品和机械有关的技术。Taken together, the actions by the Trump administration amount to an aggressive campaign to “decouple” the United States from China, as it seeks to break the close commercial ties between the world’s two largest economies and toss away what had been the anchor of the relations between the nations for decades.综合看来，特朗普政府的这些行动相当于一场美中“脱钩”的激进运动，因为它试图打破世界上两个最大经济体之间的密切商业联系，并抛弃几十年来两国关系的支柱。Aggressive decoupling would bolster American security, from the perspective of Mr. Trump and his aides. And it would also accelerate a trend toward each power being entrenched in its own regional sphere of influence.在特朗普及其助手看来，积极的脱钩将加强美国的安全。它还将加速一种趋势，即每个大国都要固守在自己的地区的势力范围。Officials in the first Trump administration spoke of the need to decouple from China, with the view that economic and educational ties across many fields equated to a national security threat. But while the efforts reframed the relationship as one of competition rather than cooperation, the volume of trade remained high, even through the pandemic.第一届特朗普政府的官员谈到了与中国脱钩的必要性，认为在许多领域的经济和教育联系等同于对国家安全的威胁。但是，尽管政府将两国关系重新定位为竞争而非合作关系，中美贸易额却依然居高不下，甚至在大流行期间也是如此。Now, in Trump 2.0, officials are taking a second swing at the decoupling campaign.如今，在特朗普2.0时代，官员们正在发起第二次脱钩运动。2019年，在日本大阪举行的20国集团峰会上，特朗普总统和中国领导人习近平会晤前摆放的椅子。在特朗普的第二个任期内，美国官员正在更加积极地寻求打破两国之间密切的商业联系。It is already having greater consequences for the two nations and the rest of the world — millions have felt the market gyrations of recent weeks — but it is too early to gauge whether the administration will achieve any substantial results.这已经对两国和世界其他地区产生了更大的影响——成百上千万人感受到了最近几周的市场波动——但现在判断政府是否会取得实质性成果还为时过早。“In terms of the big-picture perspective, decoupling is going to take a lot more than trade and visa restrictions,” said Rush Doshi, the director of a new China initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Biden national security official.“从大的层面来看，脱钩需要的远不止贸易和签证限制，”外交关系委员会新的中国项目主任、曾任拜登国家安全官员的拉什·多西说。Even beyond the global market instability, some analysts and scholars say, there are significant potential downsides for the United States in the rapid and blunt attempts to unwind the ties. They include driving up inflation for Americans, pushing talented researchers into the arms of the Chinese government or to other nations and losing U.S. government access to Chinese citizens with deep knowledge of their country, some of whom are potential recruits for intelligence agencies.一些分析人士和学者认为，除了全球市场不稳定之外，对美国来说，迅速而粗暴地试图解除两国关系也可能产生重大的不利影响。问题包括推高美国的通货膨胀率，迫使科研人才转投中国政府或其他国家，以及让美国政府无法接触到对中国有深入了解的中国公民，其中一些人本可以被情报机构招募。“The part I find so hard to understand is that here’s an area where people in China really want to have access to American culture, education and to buy American products, and we’re trying to make it less attractive to them — which I find really odd,” Michael S. Roth, the president of Wesleyan University, said after Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s announcement on student visas on Wednesday night.“我觉得很难理解的部分是，在这个领域，中国人真的很想接触美国文化、接受美国教育、购买美国产品，而我们却试图降低对他们的吸引力——我觉得这很奇怪，”卫斯理安大学校长迈克尔·罗斯在国务卿鲁比奥周三晚宣布学生签证政策后说。“If we’re competing with Chinese industry and science, it behooves us to understand the competition as well as possible and not to isolate ourselves,” Mr. Roth added.“如果我们要和中国的工业和科学竞争，我们就应该尽可能地去理解这种竞争，而不是孤立自己，”罗斯还说。But in the eyes of senior Trump administration officials, the benefits of that contact do not outweigh the risks of having hundreds of thousands of Chinese students in the United States, especially those working in the physical sciences or on advanced technologies.但在特朗普政府高级官员看来，这种接触的好处并不能抵消让数十万中国学生来到美国的风险，尤其是物理科学或先进技术领域的学生。美国国务卿鲁比奥周三晚威胁要撤销许多中国留美学生的签证，表示他们可能是威胁。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesIn his brief announcement, Mr. Rubio suggested that many of the students were potential threats. The students whose visas will be revoked, he said, include those with ties to the Chinese Communist Party or who study in “critical fields.” He did not indicate how many people would be affected, or define “critical fields.” He also did not say what kinds of ties to the party would be deemed risky, or how the officials would pinpoint those ties.在简短的声明中，鲁比奥暗示，许多学生都是潜在的威胁。他说，签证将被撤销的学生包括那些与中国共产党有联系或在“关键领域”学习的学生。他没有说明有多少人会受到影响，也没有说明“关键领域”的定义。此外，他没有说明与中共有怎样的关系会被视为有风险，更没有说明官员将如何确定这些关系。If these moves are aggressive, as Mr. Rubio has said they will be, some of the people-to-people bonds and institutional exchanges will no doubt end — exactly the outcome that top Trump administration officials aim to achieve as part of their decoupling campaign.如果这些举措像鲁比奥所说的那样积极，那么一些人与人之间的纽带和机构之间的交流无疑将会结束——这正是特朗普政府高官在这场脱钩运动中希望实现的结果。John Aubrey Douglass, a senior research fellow on education policy at the University of California at Berkeley, said Mr. Trump’s “neo-nationalism is translating into a neo-academic Cold War” that includes “unnecessary attacks and limits on international students and faculty.”加州大学伯克利分校教育政策高级研究员约翰·奥布里·道格拉斯表示，特朗普的“新民族主义正在转化为一场新学术冷战”，其中包括“对国际学生和教师发起不必要的攻击和限制”。“Major research universities already vet and limit Chinese and mostly graduate students from participating in research in areas deemed possible national security risks, working with federal officials,” he said.“主要的研究型大学已经在与联邦官员合作，审查并限制中国学生——主要是研究生——参与可能危及国家安全的领域的研究，”他说。The Trump administration’s new actions will almost certainly help China keep its talent closer to home, at a time when U.S. officials are trying to impede the nation’s progress on artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies.在美国官员试图阻碍中国在人工智能和其他先进技术方面取得进展之际，特朗普政府的新行动几乎肯定有助于中国将人才留在离本土更近的地方。“China could redirect its students to Hong Kong, the U.K. or Singapore while promoting its own universities as global hubs,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Long term, Beijing may bolster domestic higher education and recruit U.S.-based talent to reduce reliance on American institutions.”“中国可以把学生转到香港、英国或新加坡，同时把自己的大学打造成全球中心，”美国外交关系委员会全球卫生高级研究员黄严忠说。“从长远来看，北京可以强化国内的高等教育，招募美国人才，以减少对美国机构的依赖。”Xi Jinping, China’s leader, said during a visit to the United States in November 2023 that China would like to welcome 50,000 American students over five years. The pandemic, surging U.S.-China tensions and Mr. Xi’s increasingly repressive authoritarian rule had been causing the number of Americans studying in China to plummet.中国领导人习近平在2023年11月访问美国期间表示，中国希望在五年内接纳5万名美国学生。新冠大流行、中美紧张局势加剧以及习近平日益压制性的专制统治导致在中国学习的美国人急剧减少。Last year, about 800 Americans studied in China. In 2019, before the pandemic, there were about 11,000.去年，大约有800名美国人在中国学习。大流行之前的2019年大约有1.1万人。习近平在2023年访问美国期间表示，中国希望在五年内接待5万名美国学生。但是，去年在中国学习的美国人数骤降至800人。照片摄于上月。Meanwhile, a handful of American institutions, including Duke University, New York University and the Schwarzman Scholars program, continue to run campuses or classrooms in China, but their efforts become more precarious each time a new conflict arises between the United States and China.与此同时，包括杜克大学、纽约大学和苏世民学者计划在内的少数美国机构继续在中国开设校园或课堂，但每当美中之间出现新的冲突时，它们的努力就变得更加岌岌可危。At the moment, the greatest source of friction is the trade war. In April, Mr. Trump imposed 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods but brought those down to a still-significant 30 percent after U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to a temporary truce this month. China lowered tariffs on U.S. goods to 10 percent from 125 percent.目前，最大的摩擦来源是贸易战。今年4月，特朗普对中国商品征收145%的关税，但在美中官员本月同意暂时休战后，关税降至仍然很高的30%。中国将对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%。On Thursday, a federal appeals court agreed to temporarily preserve many of Mr. Trump’s tariffs on China and other trading partners, a day after a panel of federal judges declared many of the tariffs to be illegal.周四，一个联邦上诉法院同意暂时保留特朗普对中国和其他贸易伙伴征收的许多关税，此前一天，一个联邦法官合议庭宣布其中许多关税是非法的。American consumers have benefited from decades of relatively inexpensive goods manufactured in China, where labor and factory setup costs are much lower than in the United States. But Mr. Trump and several top aides, including Mr. Rubio, say their goal is to rejuvenate manufacturing in the United States through high tariffs. There is no sign, however, that companies in the United States and other nations intend to set up new factories in large numbers here.美国消费者几十年来一直受益于中国制造的相对便宜的商品，中国的劳动力和建厂成本比美国低得多。但特朗普和包括鲁比奥在内的几名高级助手表示，他们的目标是通过高关税重振美国的制造业。然而，没有迹象表明美国和其他国家的公司打算在美国大量建立新工厂。Mr. Doshi said that to effectively decouple certain industries, the Trump administration should be working with allies to move manufacturing sites and shift global supply chains.多西表示，为了有效地使某些行业脱钩，特朗普政府应该与盟友合作，转移制造基地，转移全球供应链。“On that front, it looks like they’re not moving as quickly as we would have hoped,” he said.他说：“在这方面，他们的行动似乎没有我们希望的那么快。”He added that it was through export controls of critical technology, machinery and natural resources that actual decoupling might take place.他还说，只有通过对关键技术、机械和自然资源的出口管制，才能实现真正的脱钩。During the Biden administration, Mr. Doshi was one of the architects of a policy aimed at limiting exports of advanced semiconductor chips and certain chip-making technology to China to hobble its advances in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other such areas.在拜登执政期间，多西参与制定了一项政策，旨在限制向中国出口先进的半导体芯片和某些芯片制造技术，以阻碍中国在人工智能、量子计算等领域的进步。The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called this type of surgical policy “de-risking,” and Biden aides adopted the term.欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉·冯德莱恩把这种外科手术式的政策称为“去风险”，拜登的助手们也采用了这个说法。China is showing it is ready to play that game. It struck a blow against the United States in April with its decision to ban exports of critical minerals and magnets in reaction to Mr. Trump’s escalation of tariffs. American industries rely on those minerals and magnets to produce a wide range of items, including aircraft, electric vehicles and weapons.中国表明它已经为这场游戏做好准备。今年4月，作为对特朗普提高关税的回应，中国决定禁止出口关键矿产和磁铁，对美国造成了打击。美国工业依赖这些矿物和磁铁来生产各种各样的产品，包括飞机、电动汽车和武器。On Thursday, the Trump administration announced new export controls, including limits on the sale of chip design software.周四，特朗普政府宣布了新的出口管制措施，包括限制芯片设计软件的销售。The escalations by each side amount to supply chain warfare.双方的升级已经演变为一场供应链战争。But ultimately, the greatest consequence of the efforts at decoupling could be the loss of mutual understanding that is an inevitable result of severed ties — and that, at times in history, has been the prelude to armed conflict.但最终，努力脱钩的最严重后果可能是相互理解的缺失，这是断绝关系不可避免的结果——而在历史上，这有时是武装冲突的前奏。“There are certainly legitimate security concerns in certain fields of research,” said Mr. Roth, the president of Wesleyan University. “But the ability to talk with Chinese students about American culture, American freedom, American research, and to hear their perspectives on what we do and what they do in their country has enriched the lives of many, many American students over a long period of time now, and many Chinese students.”“在某些研究领域，的确存在合理的安全关切，”卫斯理安大学校长罗斯说。“但在很长一段时间里，能与中国学生谈美国的文化、美国的自由和美国的科研，以及听取他们对美国和自己国家的看法，丰富了许多美国学生和中国学生的人生。”Bernard Mokam自纽约、王月眉(Vivian Wang)自北京、David E. Sanger自华盛顿对本文有报道贡献。黄安伟(Edward Wong)报道全球事务、美国外交政策和国务院新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。