US consumers probably saw slightly faster inflation in May, notably for merchandise, as companies gradually pass along higher import duties.Prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in May, the most in four months, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. In April, the so-called core consumer price index climbed 0.2%.The measure, which is regarded as a better indicator of underlying inflation, is seen accelerating for the first time this year — to 2.9% — on an annual basis, based on the median projection.Wednesday’s report, along with producer price data the following day, will offer Federal Reserve officials a final look at inflation and the impact of higher tariffs before they gather for a June 17-18 policy meeting.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“We expect a soft print for May’s CPI, with deflation in discretionary services more than offsetting firmer goods inflation. As the recent beige book flagged, some firms are passing through tariffs costs. We see partial pass-through in categories like furniture, apparel, and auto parts. But airfares are falling sharply, and hotels and recreational services are downshifting too.”—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins, economists. For full analysis, click hereDespite President Donald Trump’s efforts to jawbone central bankers into quickly lowering interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have indicated they have time to assess the impact of trade policy on the economy, inflation and job market.US central bankers have entered a blackout period ahead of their policy meeting.In addition to the inflation data, weekly initial jobless claims data will be scrutinized for signs of stress in the labor market; Thursday’s report showed applications rose in the final week of May to the highest level since October. Nonetheless, Friday’s jobs report indicated employment growth is moderating yet still healthy.In Canada, tourism figures for May are likely to show an ongoing steep decline in visits to the US. Manufacturing sales for April are also expected to drop as tariffs hammer exports, and national balance sheet data for the first quarter will reveal how household incomes and wealth fared as Trump ramped up his threats and began rolling out levies.Elsewhere, inflation measures from China to Brazil, along with UK and euro zone wage data, may be among the highlights.AsiaThe week in Asia starts with a data blast from China expected to underscore the disinflationary drag that’s dampening manufacturing activity as trade momentum also slows. Inflation gauges due on Monday are seen showing that consumer prices fell in May by 0.2%, the fourth straight month of declines, while the drop in factory-gate prices deepened to minus 3%, the steepest retreat since November 2023. With supply overwhelming demand, the figures will probably stoke concerns that policy efforts to boost consumption since the fourth quarter aren’t gaining much traction. China’s export growth is forecast to slow to 6% in May, with a key focus being shipments to the US after they slumped 21% year on year in April. Taiwan also releases trade statistics in the coming week. Elsewhere, Japan revises first-quarter gross domestic product data after the latest batch of capital investment figures. Most economists expect GDP to remain in a modest contraction.Australia releases gauges for business confidence and consumer sentiment on Tuesday, and India publishes an inflation report Thursday that’s expected to show CPI gains moderated for a seventh straight month in May, justifying the RBI’s decision to lower the benchmark repurchase rate by 50 basis points. Late in the week, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Trump to announce a trade deal. They’ll likely sit down on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit that starts June 15 in the village of Kananaskis in the Canadian Rockies, or possibly a day earlier in Washington. Europe, Middle East, AfricaUK data and policy will be in focus, firstly with wage numbers on Tuesday that may show a further easing in pay pressures. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is expected to have edged up in the three months through April to the highest since 2021 — albeit at a still-moderate level of 4.6%.A day later, the UK spending review will offer a clearer view of the government’s priorities for the coming parliamentary term. It’s a crunch moment as Keir Starmer’s administration struggles to regain momentum after a faltering first year in power. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to detail hundreds of billions of pounds of investment in projects to fix Britain’s creaking infrastructure as she attempts to demonstrate that the Labour Party is serious about growth.On Thursday, the first reading of UK monthly GDP in the current quarter will be released. Economists anticipate a decline of 0.1% for April, which would mark the first drop in half a year. Trade data will also be published.In the euro zone, the most notable hard data will be industrial production and trade numbers on Friday. The releases for April will offer a glimpse inito how Trump’s initial on-off tariff onslaught impacted manufacturing and exports at the start of the second quarter. On Wednesday, the European Central Bank will publish its wage tracker, a key measure of pay pressures in the euro region. This should offer reassurance to officials after their decision to declare their fight against inflation effectively over. Appearances in the wake of that meeting, at which policymakers cut rates for an eighth time, include speeches by the central bank governors of Spain, France, Austria and Finland, along with ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, chief economist Philip Lane, and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.Turning to the Nordics, Sweden’s monthly tracker of GDP is published on Tuesday, as are inflation numbers from Norway and Denmark. A couple of rate decisions are scheduled in the wider region: On Tuesday, Kenyan policymakers may cut borrowing costs for a sixth straight meeting, after inflation stayed below the 5% midpoint of their target range for a 12th consecutive month. Price growth there is being restrained by a stronger shilling, subdued demand, and lower global oil prices.Serbia’s central bank decision is on Thursday. Officials will possibly keep borrowing costs unchanged for a ninth month, even as inflation inches closer to their target.Latin AmericaBy the end of the week, consumer price reports for May will be in from all five of the region’s big inflation-targeting economies. The early consensus expects inflation to have cooled in Brazil from April’s 5.53%, stalled just above 5% for yet another month in Colombia, and definitively powered through the 4% target range ceiling in Mexico.Economists in Mexico and Colombia don’t see inflation falling back to target within their forecast horizons, while counterparts in Chile are making that call for year-end 2026. Brazilian economists don’t see it happening before 2029.Peru’s central bank, led by Julio Velarde, the region’s longest serving central bank chief, has inflation below the 2% mid-point of its 1% to 3% target range, but the early consensus sees policymakers holding the key rate at 4.5%. The most dramatic gains in Argentine President Javier Milei’s battle to get inflation under control — the annual rate is now under 50% from 289% after slowing for 12 straight months — are over. Even so, analysts surveyed by the central bank see the monthly rate slowing to under 2% soon and ending 2025 under 30%, a pace not seen since mid-2018.Colombian retail sales, manufacturing and industrial output all printed in the black in March as the economy outperformed expectations.The April readings due on Friday may show some downshifting, though economists are marking up their output forecasts for 2025 as the consensus expects a second straight year of faster growth. . Read more on World by NDTV Profit.