MSFT Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-09Microsoft CorporationBATS:MSFTquantsignals🧾 MSFT Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-09 Bias: Moderately Bearish Timeframe: 5–6 days Catalysts: Overbought RSI, weakening momentum, technical divergences Trade Type: Single-leg put option 🧠 Model Summary Table ModelDirectionStrikeEntry PriceTargetStop LossConfidence GrokBearish457.50P$0.76$1.14$0.1965% ClaudeBearish460.00P$1.03$1.55$0.7270% GeminiBearish457.50P$0.75$1.20$0.3865% DeepSeekBearish470.00P$3.65$5.48$2.5670% LlamaSlightly Bullish472.50C$3.15$3.78$2.8368% ✅ Consensus: Short-term bearish trade setup 📉 Core Setup: Reversal from overbought with MACD divergence ⚠️ Outlier: Llama prefers bullish call due to longer-term trend strength 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap Trend: Overextended rally, RSI (78.2) = overbought Momentum: MACD shows bearish divergence on daily; 5-min weak Sentiment: VIX ~16.7 = stable but cautious; mixed AI news & max pain at $460 Max Pain: $460 implies gravitational pull; current price may pull back Volatility: Option premiums reflect narrow range, but directional edge favors downside ✅ Final Trade Recommendation ParameterValue InstrumentMSFT StrategySingle-leg PUT (weekly) Strike$457.50 Entry Price$0.76 (ask) Profit Target$1.22 (~60% gain) Stop-Loss$0.38 (50% premium loss) Size1 contract Entry TimingAt market open Confidence65% 🎯 Rationale: Near-term exhaustion of upside, short-term technical reversal, and profit-taking setup with favorable risk/reward. ⚠️ Risk Checklist Strong trend continuation could invalidate pullback thesis Low VIX may reduce option gamma/velocity Sector-wide positive catalyst (AI or rate cuts) can cause rapid rebound Watch for closes above 10-EMA (~$461) to exit early if invalidated 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: MSFT 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 457.50 💵 Entry Price: 0.76 🎯 Profit Target: 1.22 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.38 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13 📏 Size: 1 contract 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-09 01:44:06 EDT