ALAN RAPPEPORT, KEITH BRADSHER2025年6月9日5月，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（右）与中国国务院副总理何立峰在瑞士日内瓦举行双边贸易会谈。 Martial Trezzini/Keystone, via Associated PressTop officials from the Trump administration will meet with their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday for a second round of economic talks, aiming to cement a trade truce between the world’s two largest economies.特朗普政府的高级官员将于周一在伦敦与中方对等官员举行第二轮经济会谈，旨在巩固世界两大经济体之间的贸易战停火。The American delegation will be led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer, the United States’ trade representative. China will be represented by He Lifeng, the country’s vice premier for economic policy, who led the previous round of talks in Switzerland. The meetings are expected to run through Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter.美方代表团由财政部长斯科特·贝森特、商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克以及美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔率领；中方则是主管经济的国务院副总理何立峰，上一轮瑞士会谈也是由他带队。据知情人士透露，会议预计将持续到周二。The talks come at a delicate juncture for the global economy, which has been slowed by uncertainty and supply chain disruptions. In April, the United States paused some of the tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on dozens of countries to provide time for trade negotiations.此次谈判正值全球经济面临微妙的处境——不确定性与供应链中断使经济增长步伐放缓。4月，美国暂停了特朗普对数十个国家征收的部分关税，以便为贸易谈判争取时间。Those levies, as well as steep import taxes on Chinese goods, were thrust into further uncertainty in late May, when a U.S. trade court deemed them illegal. The tariffs, however, remain in place while an appeal process unfolds. As the U.S. delegation negotiates in London, the Trump administration faces a deadline to make its case to a federal appeals court for why the tariffs should continue.这些税项以及对中国商品征收的高额进口税在5月底被美国贸易法院裁定违法，这进一步增加了不确定性。但在上诉期间，这些关税目前仍在实施中。就在美中双方在伦敦举行谈判同时，特朗普政府也需要赶在规定期限前向联邦上诉法院解释为何应继续征收关税。The legal limbo surrounding the tariffs could weaken the Trump administration’s hand as it tries to negotiate a broader agreement to give American businesses greater access to China’s market, push Beijing to buy more American products and attract more Chinese investment to build factories in the United States. At the same time, the Trump administration wants to make some tariffs essentially permanent to discourage a flood of Chinese exports of manufactured goods.特朗普政府希望通过谈判达成更广泛的协议，以推动中国进一步向美国企业开放市场，促使中国购买更多美国产品，同时吸引更多中国投资赴美设厂，但围绕关税问题的法律不确定性可能会削弱特朗普政府在谈判桌上的筹码。与此同时，特朗普政府也试图将部分关税转为长期措施，以阻止中国制造的涌入。In China, a slow-motion housing market collapse over the past four years has wiped out much of the savings of the country’s middle class, leaving hundreds of millions of households reluctant to spend. China has tried to offset weak consumer spending at home with a huge, government-financed campaign to build factories and ramp up exports.过去四年里，中国房地产市场的缓慢崩溃已经抹去了该国中产阶级的大部分积蓄，导致数亿家庭消费意愿不高。在内需疲软的背景下，中国政府大力推动由国家资金支持的工厂建设与出口扩张计划，以此提振经济。But the Trump administration, like the Biden administration before it, has been wary that these exports could crush what is left of America’s manufacturing sector, which is only half the size of China’s. The Trump administration has cited trade imbalances as justification for tariffs against China and dozens of other countries, many of which pay for their own trade deficits with China by running large trade surpluses with the United States.然而，特朗普政府与之前的拜登政府都对来自中国的出口可能彻底摧毁残存的美国制造业保持警惕——当前美国的制造业规模仅为中国的一半。特朗普政府以贸易失衡为由，对中国及数十个国家加征关税，其中许多国家通过与美保持巨额贸易顺差来弥补对华贸易逆差。Mr. Trump’s trade agenda has upended international commerce this year, sending economic allies and adversaries scrambling to negotiate deals with Washington in hopes of a reprieve on tariff threats. The abrupt announcement of tariffs on America’s largest trading partners have often been followed by reversals or pauses, forcing businesses to adjust their plans on the fly and rattling investors.今年，特朗普的贸易议程彻底搅乱了国际贸易，导致美国的经济盟友和对手争相与华盛顿谈判，力图免受关税的威胁。对美国主要的贸易伙伴突然宣布加征关税，又屡屡改弦更张或暂缓实施，这种反复无常不仅迫使企业匆忙调整经营计划，更令投资者惶惶不安。The first round of negotiations between China and the United States, in Geneva last month, ended with promise. The countries agreed to temporarily reduce their tariffs, which exceeded 100 percent as a tit-for-tat trade war escalated. The two sides also agreed to hold additional talks as they worked to lower the temperature.上个月中美双方在日内瓦举行的谈判曾带来曙光。随着针锋相对的贸易战不断升级，双方加征的关税突破100%，在日内瓦，双方同意暂时降低关税水平，并承诺通过后续谈判为紧张的贸易关系降温。However, the truce appeared to fray in recent weeks. China maintained strict curbs on exports of rare earth magnets that have crippled supply chains. Partly in response to those export curbs, among other things the Trump administration suspended sales to China of technologies related to jet engines, semiconductors and certain chemicals and machinery as well as proposed a plan to revoke visas for Chinese students associated with the Communist Party or studying in certain fields.但最近几周休战协议似乎有破裂之势。中国继续严格限制稀土磁铁的出口，导致全球供应链几近瘫痪。作为反制措施的一部分，特朗普政府随即宣布：暂停向中国出售航空发动机、半导体和某些化学品及机械相关的技术，并提出了一项计划，拟撤销与共产党有关联或在某些领域学习的中国留学生的签证。The standoff frustrated Mr. Trump, who lashed out at China on social media and accused it of “violating” the Geneva agreement. China hit back, arguing that it was the United States that was undermining the deal.这样的对峙令特朗普大为光火，他在社交媒体上怒斥中国，指责其“违反”了日内瓦协议。中国则反击称是美国在破坏协议。A 90-minute conversation between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, this week appeared to ease the tension. Mr. Trump suggested that the questions surrounding China’s restrictions on critical minerals known as rare earths, and magnets made from them, had been addressed and that talks would proceed. Mr. Trump also seemed to soften his administration’s stance on visas for Chinese students.特朗普与中国领导人习近平上周的90分钟通话似乎缓解了紧张局势。特朗普表示，围绕中国对称为“稀土”的关键矿产及其制成的磁铁的限制出口争议已得到解决，谈判将继续进行。特朗普似乎还软化了美国政府对中国学生签证的立场。It remains unclear what additional concession Washington or Beijing might be prepared to make in a broader economic agreement. The addition to the U.S. delegation of Mr. Lutnick, who was not part of the talks in May, suggested that there could be greater discussion of American export controls, which his agency oversees.目前尚不明确的是，为了达成更广泛的经济协议，美中双方可能会做出哪些额外让步。美国政府代表团新增了未参加5月份谈判的商务部长卢特尼克，这表明双方可能会更深入地讨论美国出口管制问题——这正是他的部门所负责的事务。The Trump administration also expressed concerns about China’s currency practices in a report to Congress this week. Although it declined to formally label China a currency manipulator, the report warned that it might do so in the future if it found evidence that suggested China was weakening its currency.本周，特朗普政府还在提交给国会的一份报告中表达了对中国货币政策的担忧。尽管拒绝正式将中国列为货币操纵国，但报告警告说，如果发现证据表明中国正在有意压低人民币汇率，未来可能会这样做。The talks in London come as many factories in the United States, Europe and Japan are quickly running out of rare earth magnets, for which China produces 90 percent of the world’s supply. Beijing announced on April 4 that it would require export licenses for all exports of seven rare earth metals and magnets made from them, which are widely used in cars, drones, speakers, fighter jets and ballistic missiles.此次伦敦谈判正值美、欧、日许多工厂面临稀土磁体即将耗尽的困境——全球90%的供应来自中国。北京方面于4月4日宣布，将对七种稀土金属及其相关物项实施全面出口许可管制，这些材料广泛应用于汽车、无人机、扬声器、战斗机和弹道导弹等产品。Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said in an interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday that a goal of the talks would be to get shipments of rare earths from China “to flow just as they did before the beginning of April.”白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特周日在CBS《面对国家》节目接受采访时表示，谈判的一个目标是让来自中国的稀土供应“恢复到4月初之前的状态”。Rare earths are a family of 17 metals found near the bottom of the periodic table. China is particularly dominant in the processing of the seven for which it now requires licenses to export, producing up to 99.9 percent of the world’s supply.稀土是位于元素周期表底部附近的17种金属的统称。中国在其中七种稀土的加工领域占据显著主导地位——目前中国对这七种稀土的出口实行许可证制度，其产量占全球供应量的99.9%。The big question lies in what concessions by the United States and others will prompt Beijing to allow further shipments of rare earths. In addition to pressing the United States to remove Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday that it had offered to speed up the approval of rare earth exports to Europe.关键问题在于，美国和其他国家要做出哪些让步才能促使北京允许放宽稀土的出口限制。除了敦促美国取消特朗普对中国商品征收的关税外，中国商务部周六表示，已提出加快对欧洲的稀土出口审批。But the ministry also called for the European Union to remove its recent tariffs on imports of electric cars from China, and it called for the bloc to allow more sales of high-tech goods to China. Under pressure from the United States, the Netherlands has limited the sale to China of equipment for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors, which have many military as well as civilian applications.但该部门同时也呼吁欧盟取消其最近对从中国进口电动汽车征收的关税，还要求欧盟放宽对华高科技产品出口的限制。在美国的压力下，荷兰已限制向中国销售用于制造最先进半导体的设备，这些设备具备许多军民两用属性。Alan Rappeport是时报驻华盛顿的经济政策记者。 他负责报道财政部并撰写有关税收、贸易和财政事务的文章。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site