DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, BERRY WANG2025年6月9日特朗普总统首个任期内曾于2019年与中国最高领导人习近平在日本举行会晤。经过数周中美紧张局势加剧后，两位领导人于周四通话。 Erin Schaff/The New York TimesDuring his phone call with President Trump, Xi Jinping leaned on a maritime analogy to try to salvage the fragile trade truce that seemed to be fracturing from a series of escalating punitive economic measures.在与特朗普总统的通话中，习近平借用了一个航海的比喻，试图挽救因一系列不断升级的经济惩罚措施而岌岌可危的贸易休战。The Chinese leader compared the relationship between the United States and China to a large ship, with the two men serving as powerful captains holding the rudder firmly to maintain the proper course. The analogy also came with a warning.这位中国领导人将中美关系比作一艘巨轮，而他与特朗普如同强有力的船长，牢牢把握舵柄，以保持正确的航向。这个比喻也带有一种警告意味。Do not let others steer the ship off course and jeopardize the relationship.不要让其他人把船带偏，危及两国关系。For weeks, the White House seemed to openly lobby for a direct conversation between the two leaders — a point underscored by China’s stating that Mr. Xi had agreed to the call on Thursday at Mr. Trump’s behest. With the United States ratcheting up the pressure on Beijing with technology and other restrictions, China may have acquiesced partly out of concern in Beijing that the China hawks in Mr. Trump’s administration were succeeding in undermining the truce, analysts said.几周来，白宫似乎一直在公开推动两位领导人之间的直接对话——中方称习近平是在特朗普的请求下同意在周四通话的，这也证实了这一点。分析人士表示，随着美国通过技术及其他限制措施加大对北京的施压，中国可能处于对特朗普政府中的对华鹰派正在成功破坏贸易休战的担忧，而在某种程度上做出让步。In a readout from the Chinese government, Mr. Xi emphasized on the 90-minute call that the two leaders needed to “steer clear of various disturbances or even sabotage.”根据中国政府发布的通话内容，在这次长达90分钟的通话中，习近平强调，两国领导人需要“排除各种干扰甚至破坏”。“China is quite concerned about this,” said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “There has to be communication at the leadership level to stop the momentum of the rapid deterioration of the U.S.-China relationship.”“中国对此非常关切，”上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯表示。“必须在领导人层面进行沟通，以遏制中美关系迅速恶化的势头。”The call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi came at an especially precarious moment. Less than one month after the two countries agreed to roll back punishing tariffs for 90 days and negotiate a trade deal, the truce seemed to be crumbling.特朗普与习近平的通话发生在一个尤为微妙的时刻。就在两国同意90天内暂停征收惩罚性关税，并协商达成贸易协议不到一个月后，休战似乎已开始瓦解。China continued to throttle the exports of rare earth minerals, throwing the supply chains of U.S. manufacturers into disarray. In response, the United States imposed restrictions on the sale of chip design software to China. It barred American companies from using artificial intelligence chips from the Chinese technology giant Huawei. It suspended some sales to China of components and software used in jet engines. In addition, the Trump administration proposed a plan to revoke visas for some Chinese students.中国继续限制稀土矿物的出口，扰乱了美国制造商的供应链。作为回应，美国就芯片设计软件对华实施了限制，禁止美国公司使用中国科技巨头华为的人工智能芯片，并暂停向中国出口部分用于喷气发动机的部件和软件。此外，特朗普政府还提出一项计划，拟撤销部分中国学生的签证。Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, said China saw an opportunity to use “top leader diplomacy” to send this message to Mr. Trump directly: “Hold off your hawks. The responsibility is on the top leaders. If you want a good relationship, don’t let your cabinet members or team run freely with their crazy ideas.”华盛顿智库史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示，中国认为可以利用“最高领导人外交”这个机会向特朗普直接传递信息：“管住你的鹰派。责任在最高领导人身上。如果你想要一段良好的关系，就不要让你的内阁成员或团队肆意推动那些疯狂的想法。”内蒙古的稀土矿开采。今年4月，中国几乎停止了所有关键矿产的出口，汽车、战斗机等高科技产业供应链受到冲击。Mr. Wu, of Fudan University, said the measures taken by the United States since last month’s trade agreement demonstrated how different members of the Trump administration were pursuing their own agendas, pointing to the Commerce Department’s export controls and the State Department’s vow to revoke visas.复旦大学的吴心伯表示，自上个月达成贸易协议以来，美国采取的种种措施表明，特朗普政府内部的不同成员在各自推动自己的议程。他指出，商务部出台了出口管制措施，国务院则誓言要撤销签证。China has maintained a tough posture, refusing to back down in response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs, unlike other countries that have treaded carefully so as not to antagonize the United States. In April, before the truce, Beijing engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, raising import duties on American goods to 125 percent after the United States pushed its taxes on Chinese imports to 145 percent. China appears ready to withstand the hardship from a prolonged trade war with the United States, with the economic levers to make life equally difficult for Americans and test Mr. Trump’s resolve.中国一直保持强硬姿态，拒绝在特朗普的关税面前退让，这与其他为了避免激怒美国而采取谨慎态度的国家不同。4月，也就是在休战前，北京采取了针锋相对的关税升级措施，在美国将中国商品的关税提高到145%后，中国把美国产品的进口关税提高到了125%。中国似乎准备好承受与美国长期贸易战带来的困难，拥有可以让美国人的生活同样不好过的经济杠杆，并试图考验特朗普的决心。At the same time, China has its own economic vulnerabilities and probably wants to avoid a full decoupling with the United States. The country’s economy is struggling to rebound from a real estate crisis. Already grappling with high levels of youth unemployment, China’s manufacturing sector, a key provider of jobs, could bear the brunt of a trade war that closes off the U.S. market and escalates fears in the rest of the world about the flood of inexpensive Chinese imports.与此同时，中国自身也存在经济脆弱性，可能希望避免与美国彻底脱钩。中国经济正努力挣脱房地产危机的泥沼。制造业是中国重要的就业来源，面对本已高企的青年失业率，如果贸易战导致美国市场关闭，并加剧世界其他地区对廉价中国进口商品泛滥的担忧，中国的制造业恐将首当其冲。China had resisted overtures from Mr. Trump for direct engagement with Mr. Xi for months, reflecting Beijing’s cautious approach. Mr. Xi may have accepted such a call now to buy his government more time to prepare for a prolonged fight.中国数月来一直拒绝特朗普关于与习近平直接接触的提议，反映出北京的谨慎态度。习近平现在接受这样的通话可能是为了给政府争取更多时间，为长期斗争做准备。The two leaders seemed to take away different things from the call. In a post on social media, Mr. Trump implied that they had resolved the dispute over the export of critical minerals, but China’s readout mentioned no such thing.两位领导人似乎从通话中得出了不同的结论。特朗普在社交媒体上的一则帖子暗示他们已经解决了关键矿产出口争端，但中国方面的通话记录并未提及此事。China’s official summary included a warning from Mr. Xi to Mr. Trump that the United States should handle the Taiwan issue “prudently” to prevent a dangerous conflict, while Mr. Trump characterized the call as being focused almost entirely on trade. China has responded angrily to remarks by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week urging America’s Asian allies to work with the United States to deter China from trying to seize Taiwan, a self-governed island democracy.中国官方的通话总结中，习近平对特朗普提出警告，称美国应“谨慎”处理台湾问题，以防止发生危险冲突；而特朗普则将此次通话描述为几乎完全关乎贸易问题。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯上周呼吁亚洲盟友与美国合作，遏制中国试图夺取台湾这一自治民主岛屿的言论引发了中国的强烈不满。Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi did agree that both sides would work once again to implement the agreement from last month and that further talks for a more permanent deal would proceed. Mr. Trump also said the talks with China will now include Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in addition to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative. And Mr. Xi urged the United States to withdraw “negative measures” against China.特朗普和习近平确实在一点上达成了一致，双方将再次努力落实上个月达成的协议，并将继续进行进一步的谈判以达成更为长期的协议。特朗普还表示，此次与中国的谈判除了财政部长斯科特·贝森特和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔外，还将包括商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克。习近平则敦促美国撤销针对中国的“负面措施”。To some extent, China could claim a win from the call, as Mr. Trump seemed to soften his administration’s stance on Chinese student visas. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of Mr. Trump’s hawkish advisers, said the United States would “aggressively” revoke the visas of Chinese students, specifically those associated with the Communist Party or studying in critical fields. But Mr. Trump, on Thursday, rolled out the red carpet.在某种程度上，中国可以将此次通话视为一次胜利，因为特朗普似乎软化了其政府对中国学生签证的立场。上周，国务卿鲁比奥（特朗普的鹰派顾问之一）表示，美国将“大力”撤销中国学生的签证，特别是那些与共产党有关联或在关键领域学习的学生。但特朗普在周四却表示热烈欢迎中国留学生。国务卿鲁比奥本月在华盛顿的一次活动中宣布，将加强对中国留学生签证的审查力度。“Chinese students are coming. No problem,” Mr. Trump said during a briefing from the Oval Office. “It’s our honor to have them.”“中国学生要来，没问题，”特朗普在椭圆形办公室的简报会上说。“我们很荣幸接待他们。”Before the call, Mr. Trump wrote on social media that Mr. Xi was “VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH.” In his summary of the call, Mr. Trump sounded gracious, noting that the two leaders had invited each other to visit their respective countries.通话前，特朗普在社交媒体上写道，习近平“非常强硬，很难和他达成协议”。但在通话总结中，特朗普显得态度友好，提到两位领导人已互相邀请对方来访。Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington research group, said the call could signal that the two countries had shifted into a “fragile equilibrium” after having demonstrated their willingness to turn up the pressure on each other.华盛顿智库国际战略研究中心高级顾问甘思德 (Scott Kennedy)表示，这次通话可能表明两国已进入一种“脆弱的均衡”状态，此前双方都展现了愿意加大向对方施压的态度。Mr. Kennedy noted that China is the only country to win concessions from the United States since Mr. Trump launched his global “reciprocal” tariff campaign in April.甘思德指出，自特朗普4月启动全球“对等”关税行动以来，中国是唯一一个从美国那里获得让步的国家。“I think they feel they probably figured Trump out and that this is a manageable relationship,” he said. “If this agreement falls apart again, they know what buttons to push to make the Trump administration take notice.”“我认为他们觉得自己大概已经看透了特朗普，认为这是一段可控的关系，”他说。“如果这项协议再次破裂，他们知道该按哪些‘按钮’，让特朗普政府注意到。”Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻首尔亚洲商业记者，报道区域经济、公司和地缘政治新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site