Countries: Philippines, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan Source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project In this Regional Overview covering May 2025India: The state escalates its campaign against Naxal-Maoist rebelsIndonesia: Violence in Papua hits a year-highIndia/Pakistan: A four-day conflict draws to a close amid drone and missile warfareMyanmar: The Assam Rifles kill 10 Myanmar resistance fighters along the India-Myanmar borderPakistan: Baloch separatist activity escalates further as Pakistan accuses India of waging a proxy warPhilippines: Election violence grips Bangsamoro amid Marcos vs. Duterte midterm showdownIndia: The state escalates its campaign against Naxal-Maoist rebelsOn 21 May, Indian security forces killed the general secretary of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) (CPI (Maoist)), the highest-ranking leader to have ever been killed in combat, in Chhattisgarh’s Abujhmarh forest alongside at least 26 other CPI (Maoist) members. The recent clashes formed part of an overall rise in clashes between Indian security forces and Naxal-Maoist cadres. The escalation is the result of a 21-day anti-militancy operation in the Karegutta hills, a militant stronghold on the Chhattisgarh-Telangana border. The operation concluded on 11 May and resulted in the reported deaths of 31 Naxal-Maoist cadres. The campaign, dubbed Operation Kagar, was launched in January 2024 by Indian Home Minister Amit Shah with the objective of eradicating “left-wing extremism” by 31 March 2026.The death of the CPI (Maoist) general secretary is likely to prompt a reassessment of the group’s future strategies and may lead to retaliatory acts of violence targeting civilians suspected of being state collaborators in the short term, a trend seen in the aftermath of previous successful anti-militancy operations. Tribal people, who are the primary inhabitants of the Red Corridor, have long found themselves in the crosshairs of the conflict. Human rights groups have accused the government of subjecting them to gross human rights violations during previous anti-militancy operations.Indonesia: Violence in Papua hits a year-highViolence in Papua has reached its highest levels this year, driven by an escalation in fighting between the military and the separatist West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB). ACLED records 29 clashes between the TPNPB and Indonesian security forces in May, compared to six the previous month. Fighting escalated in Central Papua, where clashes took place in eight villages across Sugapa and Hitadipa districts between 13 and 14 May. While the main target was TPNPB members, Indonesian soldiers were accused of attacking civilians during the fight, raiding churches, and dropping bombs. According to various sources, at least four rebels and three locals were killed, including a village head and a priest. Eleven others were injured or went missing, and hundreds of people fled their houses. State forces claimed to have killed 18 rebels during the clashes.7 In a separate operation, authorities also killed the local TPNPB leader for Yambi. In total, at least 20 people, mostly rebels and civilians, were killed in May.Papua has experienced a significant growth in political violence in recent years, with 2024 and 2023 being the most violent years since ACLED’s coverage of Indonesia began in 2015. Last year, the military formed the Habema Operation Command to oversee combat operations and engage in other counterinsurgency and negotiation initiatives in the region. The task force mainly operates in the central highlands, including the Wabu Block gold mine area, and has been involved in recent clashes.India/Pakistan: A four-day conflict draws to a close amid drone and missile warfareTensions between India and Pakistan boiled over in May, as the two countries engaged in some of the most intense and widespread fighting seen in recent decades. In response to the 22 April Pahalgam militant attack, which India accused Pakistan of orchestrating, India conducted drone and missile strikes targeting several sites India alleged were occupied by militants within Pakistan in the early hours of 7 May. They also targeted the reported headquarters of the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad groups in Pakistani Punjab. Pakistan initially retaliated by shooting down multiple Indian aircraft. Over the next three days, intense fighting involving artillery and mortars erupted along the Line of Control (LoC) separating the Indian- and Pakistani-administered parts of Kashmir.The situation escalated on 9 May, when Pakistan officially launched its counter-operation, attacking military bases within India, including with short and long-range ballistic missiles. ACLED records eight successfully executed airstrikes in Indian-administered Kashmir, Gujarat, and Punjab.9 In response, India carried out 11 airstrikes, mainly targeting Pakistan Air Force infrastructure, including near the capital city of Islamabad. This escalation prompted diplomatic intervention from the United States, eventually leading to the cessation of hostilities that claimed dozens of lives over the four days, predominantly from fighting along the LoC.10 Beyond the disputed Kashmir region, drone and missile warfare affected seven states and union territories within India and two provinces in Pakistan. The overwhelming majority of these drone and missile attacks were intercepted by air defense systems between 7 and 10 May.The ceasefire largely appears to be holding. As of 30 May, ACLED records only two clashes between the two countries’ militaries after its announcement on 10 May. However, the threat of future escalation persists as militancy continues unabated in Kashmir, where ACLED data show six events involving militants in May since the ceasefire. On 12 May, in his first remarks after the ceasefire, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to respond militarily to future acts of “terrorism,” eschewing distinctions between “masterminds of terrorism” and their alleged state sponsors.Myanmar: The Assam Rifles kill 10 Myanmar resistance fighters along the India-Myanmar borderOn 14 May, India’s Assam Rifles (AR) killed 10 members of the Tamu People’s Defense Organization (Tamu PDO), a resistance group under Myanmar’s parallel National Unity Government (NUG), near Tamu on the India-Myanmar border. This is the first instance of such lethal cross-border violence involving AR since the coup, although ACLED records at least four armed clashes in Tamu between Myanmar resistance forces and Indian insurgent groups since 2021. The AR is a paramilitary force under the Indian army responsible for border security in the area. It has been accused of extrajudicial killings and human rights abuses in the past. The AR claimed it acted upon intelligence and retaliated tactically after its troops came under fire. It described the killings as the “biggest” counter-insurgency operation in recent years. The NUG, in contrast, claimed that its fighters were apprehended by the AR inside Myanmar territory, forcibly taken across the border into India, tortured, and killed based on signs of torture on the victim’s bodies and its own investigations.The violence occurred after the Tamu PDO relocated from Khampat town to somewhere near milepost 59 on the border with India in the west of Kamma Gyi village. Territorial disputes have been simmering since India began fencing its 1,643-kilometer shared border with Myanmar in June 2022. Resistance forces based in Tamu claimed Indian fence construction encroaches on Myanmar territory in six areas and opposed the plan, particularly near mileposts 81, 82, 74, 75, and 76. The Indian government also declared last year that it would cancel the Free Movement Regime between the two countries.Following the 14 May violence, the NUG demanded that the Indian government halt unilateral border fencing, while family members of the deceased Tamu PDO members and local communities protested and called for accountability. Refugees and border residents have voiced fears of deteriorating security in the area and the potential for the AR’s killings to lead to further tensions between armed groups in the area, where rebel groups of Myanmar and Indian origin regularly cross in both directions.Pakistan: Baloch separatist activity escalates further as Pakistan accuses India of waging a proxy warIn May, separatist violence in Pakistan’s Balochistan province increased in frequency and deadliness, with an around 60% rise in incidents compared to April. Between 9 and 10 May, militants, mainly from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), enforced roadblocks and launched coordinated attacks against security forces in seven districts of the province, coinciding with Pakistan’s ongoing clashes with India along its eastern border. The BLA publicly offered support to India, expressing a willingness to increase pressure on Pakistan’s military, which it regards as an occupying force, along its western borders at the same time. In a provocative attack on 14 May, BLA militants threw a grenade at a rally organized to honor Pakistan’s army after its conflict with India. A week later, on 21 May, a suspected BLA suicide bombing on an army public school bus in Khuzdar district reportedly killed 10 people, including eight students.Pakistan has long accused India of fomenting Baloch separatism, an echo of allegations made by India against Pakistan with regard to Kashmir. These claims became more prominent in May as a result of the deteriorating relations between the two countries and the symbolic timing and targets of recent separatist attacks. As links between Baloch separatist groups and India are drawn more explicitly, Pakistan’s security forces may use this narrative to justify an intensified crackdown, not only on militants but also on the broader ethnic Baloch population, which already suffers from systemic human rights abuses at the hands of the state.Philippines: Election violence grips Bangsamoro amid Marcos vs. Duterte midterm showdownThe Philippines saw a surge in political violence in May, largely driven by violent incidents related to the nationwide midterm polls held on 12 May. The 45-day period between the start of the local campaigning period on 28 March and election day on 12 May saw around a 45% increase in political violence across the country, compared to the 45-day period prior. Election-related violence peaked on election day itself, accounting for 35% of such events recorded by ACLED since 1 October 2024, the start of the election candidacy filing period.A disproportionate share of the violence took place in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). The BARMM ranks first among the country’s 18 regions with a 42% share of all political violence from 28 March to 12 May. On election day, three supporters of a mayoral candidate were killed in a firefight between seaborne police patrollers and an unidentified armed group traveling by boat along the waters of Hadji Muhtamad town in Basilan, BARMM. A day earlier, a firefight between supporters of rival mayoral candidates in Hadji Mohammad Ajul town in Basilan, BARMM, resulted in the death of four, in the election week’s deadliest event. The firefight also involved clans caught in rido, a local type of war between clans, highlighting rido’s continued threat in the lead-up to the first-ever BARMM parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2025. Despite these incidents, the Philippine National Police judged the election to be “generally peaceful.”Nationally, voters’ attention was on the race for 12 senate positions touted as a showdown between the Marcos and Duterte families, whose alliance-turned-feud climaxed when President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. allowed his predecessor, former President Rodrigo Duterte, to be arrested and brought to The Hague in March on the back of an International Criminal Court warrant for crimes related to the latter’s war on drugs. Observers have largely seen the election results as favorable to the Dutertes. Enough Duterte allies won — including the senatorial candidate with the most votes — to likely ward off an ongoing impeachment complaint against Vice President Sara Duterte, who is considered a strong contender for the 2028 presidential election. That said, a successful impeachment would bar her from running for president.