BTC in DistributionBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTap769Hi everyone. I am going to be moving my trading commentary back to Ideas rather than Minds so I can stay focused during the day, as well as having the added benefit of retrospective analysis. I do not trade BTC but have been tracking the price recently and believe it is gearing up for a big move. The current structure supports a bearish bias based on the Wyckoff Distribution pattern, which the price has been following in a textbook fashion. If this pattern continues, I believe Bitcoin will enter a bearish trend. For the indexes I will try to post ideas for a bullish and bearish bias but for this quick post on Bitcoin, I am going to stick to the bear side. Using Renko (Traditional, $500 window size) as my main chart, you can see the price broke out of a strong uptrend after the peak on May 22 (Buying Climax) and entered a potential distribution pattern. The secondary test (ST) set the lower band of the resistance zone, which the price has been testing and rejecting up until this point. The labels are subjective but what we can confirm is that the price has broken through the bottom range (Sign of Weakness or Spring) but has been unable to break through the top of the range. An upthrust/false breakout above the top of the range would be a key level to go short, as this would take out the last remaining buyers, however the price continuing to stay below the resistance could be a sign of persistent weakness. A rejection here would suggest that we are in Phase C, which is where momentum will build up on the sell side, eventually pushing the price through the bottom of the range and into a bearish trend. Since Renko is the smoothest chart, I am also using range bars (less smooth) and standard candle sticks (most noise) to analyze closer setups. On the range chart (20000R or $200), the price looks to be in an inverse cup and handle pattern, which if it holds would support the idea that we are in Phase C of the distribution pattern and the price will fail to break above the range again. Volume indicates that there is low interest at the upper levels, which resulted in the price moving down in Friday. We could see another push down after another period of low interest at the upper level. Lastly, the 1h candle chart shows that the price has been relatively flat since June 25th and is being supported by a large volume node on the Volume Profile. There was large buying volume at the lower level, so if the price can stay above this node (~$106,700) there is a good chance that it will get pushed above the range, however if sellers are able to push it through this level of high volume, further downside could follow. This is why I would suggest waiting to see if this level holds before entering a trade. A false upside breakout (above $112,000) would be a safe area to go short, as it would be a quality setup with good risk/reward. If the price is in Phase C and cannot break above the range, it would be a less ideal short setup, as the market could make a push to the top of the range at any time to clear out buyers. If this were to happen, I would prefer to wait for more confirmation. To conclude, my idea here is: Short (Solid Line): False breakout above $112,000 (preferred) or below $107,000 (higher risk) Long (Dotted Lines): True breakout above $112,000 (preferred) or reversal $103,000-$98,000 (higher risk) Thank you for reading and let me know what you think. More ideas to come.