AUDUSD Australian Dollar / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:AUDUSDShavyfxhubToday July 8th 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in the official cash rate, lowering it from 3.85% to 3.60%. This would be the third rate cut in 2025, reflecting easing inflation and a slowing economy. Key Details for July 8, 2025: 2:30 AM WAT: Release of NAB Business Confidence data for Australia. 5:30 AM WAT: Announcement of the RBA Cash Rate decision, expected to be cut to 3.60% from 3.85%. Release of the RBA Rate Statement, outlining the rationale behind the decision. RBA Press Conference follows, providing further insights and answering questions. Market Expectations and Impact: Major banks including Westpac, Commonwealth Bank, NAB, and ANZ unanimously forecast this 25 bps cut due to softer inflation and subdued economic growth. The rate cut is expected to ease borrowing costs, potentially saving mortgage holders . The RBA aims to balance supporting growth while maintaining inflation within its 2–3% target band. Summary Timeline (WAT) TimeEventExpected Outcome 2:30 AMNAB Business ConfidenceIndicator of business sentiment 5:30 AMRBA Cash Rate AnnouncementCut from 3.85% to 3.60% 5:30 AMRBA Rate StatementExplanation of decision 5:30 AMRBA Press ConferenceQ&A and further guidance This rate cut is part of a broader easing cycle, with markets pricing in multiple cuts through the rest of 2025 as inflation remains manageable but economic growth slows. 2. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: Has been falling in 2025 alongside expectations of RBA rate cuts, AU10Y=4.232% OCR=3.85% TO TRIM IT TO 3.60% TODAY. US10Y=4.383% USD IRT=4.25%-4.5% 3. Interest Rates Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Cash Rate: Recently cut from 3.85% to 3.60% in July 2025, with expectations of further easing (potentially down to ~3.6% by year-end). US Federal Reserve Rate: Held steady at 4.25%–4.50% as of mid-2025, with a slower pace of cuts compared to Australia. 4. Interest Rate Differential and Impact on AUD/USD The interest rate differential (US rate minus Australian rate) currently favors the US by approximately 0.65–0.9 percentage points (Fed rate ~4.25–4.50% vs. RBA ~3.60%). This narrowing differential from earlier wider gaps has weighed on the AUD, as higher US rates attract capital flows, supporting the USD. However, the recent RBA rate cuts and easing inflation in Australia have softened the differential, giving some support to the AUD. Other factors influencing AUD/USD include US tariffs, China’s economic outlook (as Australia’s key trading partner), and global risk sentiment. The AUD/USD is expected to remain sensitive to the interest rate differential and central bank policies. Further RBA cuts could weaken the AUD if the US Fed maintains higher rates. Conversely, any signs of US rate cuts or easing trade tensions could boost the AUD. Inflation trends, China’s economic health, and geopolitical factors will also play key roles. In essence: The interest rate differential between the US and Australia currently favors the US, supporting the USD over the AUD, but recent RBA easing and falling Australian bond yields have narrowed this gap, providing some support to the AUD/USD pair . Traders closely watch upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for direction. #AUDUSD #RBA #FEDS #BONDS #AU10Y #US10Y