Monday, 7 July 2025 - SOL/USDT.P Short

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Monday, 7 July 2025 - SOL/USDT.P ShortSOL / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:SOLUSDT.PWibonoTrading Journal Entry: SOL/USDT SHORT Date of Entry: July 8, 2025 Asset: SOL/USDT Perpetual Futures Position: SHORT Entry Price: $149.40 Stop Loss: $153.50 Take Profit: $141.20 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.00:1 Setup Grade: A+ 1. Core Thesis The trade is a high-confluence short position designed to capitalize on a probable breakdown of a key support level, driven by overwhelming bearish sentiment and a clear liquidity-based objective. The core thesis is that the market, having failed to show strength at a critical resistance point within a larger downtrend, is incentivized to purge the liquidity resting at the bottom of the local range. 2. High-Timeframe Context (The Strategic Landscape) My analysis began with a top-down approach to understand the broader market environment. Weekly Context: The market is in a multi-month corrective phase after a significant long-term uptrend. This indicates that the primary bullish momentum has stalled, making the market susceptible to deeper corrections and range-bound activity. Trading between major HTF zones is the governing dynamic. Daily Context: The immediate trend on the daily chart is clearly bearish, defined by a series of lower highs and lower lows. This downtrend brought the price to a pivotal support zone identified by the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) around $140-$145. This created the central conflict: a dominant bearish trend meeting a significant historical support level. 3. Order Flow & Sentiment Analysis (The Deciding Factor) This layer of analysis was the key to resolving the trend vs. support conflict and solidified the bearish bias. Liquidation Analysis: The liquidation maps revealed a very large and proximate pool of long liquidations concentrated around $145. This liquidity cluster acts as a powerful magnet for price, providing a clear, logical target for a downside move. Funding Rate Analysis: Funding rates across the majority of major exchanges were negative. This provided clear evidence that derivative traders were predominantly positioned short and were willing to pay a premium to maintain those positions. In this context of price failing at resistance, it signaled strong bearish conviction and a market leaning heavily in one direction. Synthesis: The presence of a large downside liquidity target (the "magnet") combined with dominant bearish sentiment (the "conviction") created a high-probability scenario for a breakdown. The path of least resistance was for the market to resolve the consolidation by pushing down to trigger the liquidity pool below. 4. Tactical Execution (The Entry Trigger) With a firm directional bias, the final step was to find a low-risk entry. 4-Hour Structure: The price action leading into the entry was weak. The 4H chart showed a low-volume, corrective bounce that failed to decisively reclaim its Point of Control around $150. This lack of a strong rejection from the lows was a critical sign that buyers lacked control and that the support was fragile. 1-Hour Entry Pattern: I identified the perfect entry trigger on the 1H chart. Price formed a tight consolidation pattern, building a clear support base around the $149.50 - $150.00 level. The volume throughout this consolidation was visibly declining, indicating a coiling of energy before a volatile move. My entry at $149.40 was a stop-limit order placed to trigger on a confirmed breakdown of this immediate support, allowing us to join the move with momentum. 5. Risk Management (The Trade's Foundation) Stop Loss ($153.50): The SL was not an arbitrary price but a logical invalidation point. It was placed just above the structural high of the 1-hour consolidation range. A move to this level would have proven the breakdown thesis incorrect and signaled that buyers had absorbed the selling pressure. Take Profit ($141.20): The TP was chosen for two reasons: Rule Compliance: It mathematically secured my required 2:1 risk/reward ratio. Strategic Placement: It sits just above the major daily support zone and the daily POC, increasing the probability of a fill before a significant HTF reaction and potential bounce. This trade represents a textbook example of our strategy: using high-timeframe analysis to build a directional bias, confirming it with order flow and liquidity data, and executing with precision on a low-timeframe pattern, all while adhering to strict, non-negotiable risk management rules.