Report - 7 jully, 2025Gold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDBurankuChina’s Export Rerouting: A Strategic Response to US Tariffs China has aggressively shifted its export strategy to circumvent the steep tariff wall erected by President Trump as part of his ongoing trade war. Recent data from the US Census Bureau shows that Chinese exports directly to the US dropped by 43% year-on-year in May, equivalent to a $15 billion decline. However, China’s overall exports still rose by 4.8% in the same period, indicating successful reallocation of trade flows. This was achieved through a 15% increase in exports to the ASEAN bloc and a 12% increase to the EU. By rerouting products through Southeast Asia, China is effectively sidestepping US tariffs, echoing tactics seen during the initial phase of the US-China trade war under Trump's first term. Southeast Asia as a Transshipment Hub Vietnam and Indonesia have emerged as key transit hubs. According to Capital Economics, an estimated $3.4 billion worth of Chinese goods were rerouted via Vietnam in May — a 30% increase from the previous year. Indirect trade through Indonesia also rose sharply to $800 million, up 25% year-on-year. Chinese exports of electronic components to Vietnam surged, including printed circuits, telephone set parts, and display modules, which alone rose by $2.6 billion, or 54% compared to May 2024. This strategic pivot underlines China’s adaptability and Southeast Asia's growing role in global supply chain realignments. US Policy Response and Warnings US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that unless trade partners finalize deals with Washington, tariffs will "boomerang" back to their steep April levels starting August 1. The 90-day tariff pause, which initially calmed markets, is set to end imminently. So far, Trump has secured only three trade agreements — with the UK, China, and Vietnam. Vietnam’s deal notably includes a punitive 40% levy on goods transshipped through its territory, specifically targeting Chinese re-exports. This demonstrates the US administration's determination to close loopholes and deter indirect circumvention of tariffs. Implications for Trade Partners and Global Markets Other major US trading partners, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea, remain in limbo, facing potential tariff hikes. The uncertainty has reintroduced volatility into trade-dependent markets. US officials anticipate a flurry of last-minute negotiations, but the threat of broad tariff reimposition looms large. Trump’s approach, characterized by abrupt policy swings and negotiation brinkmanship, has already forced US allies and adversaries alike to reconsider supply chain configurations. The potential return of high tariffs risks reigniting concerns over inflation and global growth that initially triggered financial market sell-offs earlier in the year. Financial Market Dynamics Trump’s tariff pause had stabilized US equities and bond markets after an initial sharp downturn. However, the risk of renewed tariffs could reverse these gains, particularly if trade tensions escalate further. Investors are watching closely for any last-minute deals that might avert additional supply chain disruptions and support risk sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s ability to maintain overall export growth despite US measures signals resilience and reinforces the importance of diversified trade relationships. For global investors, this suggests continued strength in ASEAN manufacturing and logistics sectors, as well as ongoing demand for regional infrastructure development to handle redirected trade flows. Broader Geopolitical and Strategic Context The rerouting highlights China’s tactical approach to trade pressure while deepening its economic ties with neighboring Southeast Asian nations. This strategy aligns with Beijing’s broader goal of strengthening its influence in ASEAN and hedging against Western economic decoupling efforts. In parallel, the US is doubling down on "economic nationalism," threatening high tariffs unless trade partners make concessions. This could push more countries toward regional trade alliances, bypassing direct US channels and potentially undermining American market leverage over time.