BTC/USDT Multi - time frame analysis and {4HR }BTCUSDTPERP PERPETUAL MIX CONTRACTBITGET:BTCUSDT.PAliSMA25BTC/USDT Multi-Timeframe SMC Analysis – July 8, 2025 1. Top-Down Analysis: Daily Timeframe (Macro Market Structure & Narrative - Inferred from chart context): The broader market structure indicates a prolonged consolidation phase, initiated around mid-June, characterized by defined support and resistance levels. The identified supply zone, ranging approximately from $108,000 to $109,500 and labeled as "Potential Supply Zone" on the chart, is a key daily-level area. Crucially, despite entering this daily supply, the strong underlying bullish order flow suggests a high probability that this supply zone may not act as an effective distribution point. The overarching narrative from higher timeframes indicates robust institutional buying pressure, implying a potential shift in the broader trend to unequivocally bullish upon a clear breach of this daily supply. 4H Timeframe (Swing Structure, Internal BOS/CHoCH): The 4H swing structure explicitly displays a very clear bullish order flow. We observe a series of consecutively confirmed CHoCH (Change of Character) and BOS (Break of Structure) to the upside (indicated by "4HR CHOCH" and "4HR BOS" annotations). This unequivocally establishes a decidedly bullish 4H swing bias. The most recent 4H BOS occurred around the $107,000 level, after which price has continued its upward trajectory. Price is currently engaging with a 4H supply zone (marked by the white box). However, given the dominant bullish order flow on the 4H, there is a high probability that this supply zone will be invalidated, allowing price to extend its bullish movement. This phenomenon often signifies an "Imbalance Fill" or "Liquidity Grab" by smart money to fuel further upside. 1H Timeframe (Entry-Level Structure & POIs): The 1H timeframe currently reflects a phase of consolidation or minor correction following the recent bullish impulse. In alignment with the decisive bullish 4H bias, any retracement observed on the 1H timeframe is to be considered a buying opportunity. The "PIVOT" marked around $105,000 serves as a potential 1H demand area, which could be a target for a deeper retracement before the continuation of the bullish move. However, considering the current market strength, price might not even reach this level and could resume its ascent from current or slightly higher levels. The current "PIVOT" at approximately $108,500 represents a temporary internal resistance. A decisive break and sustained close above this pivot would provide stronger confirmation for the continuation of the bullish trend. 2. Identification: Clean Breaks of Structure (BOS) and Changes of Character (CHoCH): 4H: Multiple clear bullish BOS and CHoCH events, indicative of strong bullish order flow. 1H: Internal structure currently shows consolidation prior to a likely bullish BOS to new highs. Valid Supply & Demand Zones (Unmitigated only): Unmitigated 4H/1H Supply Zone: Approximately $108,000 - $109,500 (marked by the white box). However, as noted, it is anticipated to be invalidated due to the overall bullish order flow. Unmitigated 4H/1H Demand Zones: Lower down, around the $105,000 PIVOT and the green-shaded regions on the chart (potential demand areas that would activate upon a deeper retracement). Internal and external liquidity pools (buy/sell-side): External Buy-side Liquidity: Above the all-time highs or previous "High" (observed at $111,900 on the prior chart). Internal Buy-side Liquidity: Above current range highs (approx. $109,500) and above recent pivots. Internal Sell-side Liquidity: Below recent 1H pivots, particularly below $107,000 and $105,000 (which could act as inducement). Inducement patterns and liquidity grabs (internal sweeps): Any minor retracement or downside fluctuation from the current supply zone could act as inducement to draw in sellers, before price resumes its bullish trajectory. Previous sweeps to the downside have served as confirmation of liquidity accumulation for prior bullish moves. Order blocks, FVGs, mitigation blocks, and imbalance zones: Given the impulsive nature of the bullish moves, bullish FVGs and OBs should be considered in retracements (e.g., around the $105,000 demand area). The current supply zone (white box) also contains OB/FVG, but as mentioned, its invalidation probability is high. Active market range and internal liquidity engineering: The active 4H market range encompasses the recent bullish move from $102,000 to current highs. Internal liquidity engineering currently involves drawing sellers into the supply zone and subsequently invalidating it for continued bullish advancement. 3. Delivery: Directional Bias with Contextual Narrative: Strongly Bullish. The 4H order flow is unequivocally bullish, with repeated confirmations of bullish BOS and CHoCH. While price is entering a supply zone, the overall bullish strength suggests it is highly probable this zone will be invalidated, leading to further upside to target new highs. The market narrative points towards a continuation of the uptrend, targeting external buy-side liquidity. Actionable Setup (Long): Asset: BTC/USDT Perpetual Futures Entry Level (POI, OB or FVG): Scenario 1 (Aggressive Entry - given market strength): Enter long within the $107,500 - $108,000 range (upon confirmation of bullish price action on the 1H or 15-minute timeframe within the supply zone, indicating its invalidation). This entry presumes the supply zone will be breached. Scenario 2 (Conservative Entry - upon retracement): Enter long within the $105,000 - $105,200 range (the pivot area and potential demand zone). This point would activate upon a deeper retracement into a discount area. Given the chart and current strength, Scenario 1 appears more probable, but price action confirmation is critical. Stop-Loss (Invalidation Structure): For Scenario 1: Place stop-loss below the last valid 1H structural low that confirms the bullish impulse, or below $106,500. For Scenario 2: Place stop-loss below the demand zone and below the $104,500 pivot, e.g., $104,000. Target Level (Minimum 3R+): Target 1 (1R): $109,500 (Break of current supply range high and liquidity grab). Target 2 (2R): $111,000 (Retest of previous "High"). Target 3 (3R+ / Primary Target): $112,500 - $113,500 (Formation of new highs and targeting fresh buy-side liquidity). R-multiple Calculation Example: If for Scenario 1, entry is $107,700 and stop is $106,500 (1200 points risk), a 3R target would be $107,700 + (3 * $1200) = $111,300, which aligns with our targets. Confluences: Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Decisive bullish 4H order flow provides strong support for a bullish bias, treating any retracement as an opportunity. Liquidity: New highs and external buy-side liquidity serve as clear targets. Supply Zone Weakness: Despite price entering a supply zone, the underlying bullish strength suggests its probable invalidation. Pivot Price Action: Repeated bullish pivots and structural breaks confirm the trend. This analysis presents a high-conviction long setup for BTC/USDT. However, close attention to price action confirmations on lower timeframes (e.g., 1H or 15-minute) within the current supply zone will be crucial for aggressive entry. Should price retrace, anticipate a bounce from lower demand zones. Disclaimer: This is a market analysis based on current price action and structure. It does not constitute a buy or sell signal. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment before taking any trades BTCUSDT.P