Chinese President Xi Jinping’s absence from the two-day summit of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations on July 6 and 7 in Rio de Janeiro has become a source of speculation.Several media reports from India and abroad have interpreted it as a sign of his weakening grip on power. They have also noted that Xi has not been spotted in the public eye for a few days.This is not the first time that rumours about Xi have swirled close to important events, and past instances can help understand what such absences might mean. Here is what to know.Officially, scheduling conflicts have been cited for Xi missing the event for the first time in his 12 years as the Chinese President. However, one report in the South China Morning Post in late June cited people involved in the preparations, saying it was because Xi had recently met the Brazilian President.Xi met Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the G20 summit and state visit to Brasília last November, and again in May in Beijing.Another heavyweight to have pulled out of the event is Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Reuters, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov cited “certain difficulties” in the context of the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against Putin over the Ukraine war. Notably, the Russia-China relationship has further deepened since the conflict began in 2022, as Europe and the US criticised the Russian invasion.The SCMP report further said, “Speculation has circulated that Lula’s invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner following the Brics summit may have influenced Beijing’s decision, as Xi could have been “perceived as a supporting actor” at the gathering.”Story continues below this adWhat does this tell us about Xi’s hold on power?Not a lot. The Chinese one-party state is often described as a “black box”, with opaque workings and little revealed through official channels. This is one reason why, even if some speculations and rumours may seem outrightly outlandish, analysts often wait before totally dismissing them.Another relevant factor is that the disappearances of prominent Chinese nationals — including a Minister of Defence, a billionaire and a famous actor in recent years — are not that uncommon. Usually, they are not spotted for several days, if they have engaged in actions/speech that is disapproved of by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Most have generally reappeared after some time.Explained | China’s recent removal of senior military officials, and what these ‘purges’ indicateHowever, claims about the weakening position of a man considered the most powerful leader of his country in generations are not supported by much evidence at present. There are several reasons for this:Story continues below this ad(i) In recent years, the July-September period has seen similar rumours about Xi losing his grip on power, only for him to return to public view with no signs of being politically diminished.(ii) Xi has been at the centre of such rumours at other times in the past, including in 2012 (a year before he became President) and during the Covid-19 pandemic. While there were several protests against the strict lockdown restrictions, which were unusual in China, it did not lead to a massive political shift. Doing so would require a faction within the Communist Party, or a strong leader, to emerge and sway the opinion of party leaders their way, away from Xi.(iii) In a recent article in The Telegraph (“The fading power of Xi Jinping”), Kerry Brown, a British sinologist and former diplomat, pointed out the usual signals of a power shift: “Are there any central leaders saying slightly discordant things? Are there any provincial leaders who are sort of acting in a more autonomous way? Are there military leaders who are [making] overt statements, which are different from the government?” Currently, none of these have been detected.(iv) In 2022, Xi was elected as the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party — the most important political position in the country — for an unprecedented third five-year term. This means he will continue until 2027 at least, and is in line with greater centralisation of power under Xi’s rule.Story continues below this adThe rumours also come on the heels of the removal of two senior military leaders in China. One of them, Miao Hua, was of the apex military affairs decision-making body, the Central Military Commission. While it does signal some internal problems, especially pertaining to high-level corruption in the armed forces, it also means that Xi still wields power forcefully enough to order the removal of key leaders.