UltraTech, JK Lakshmi: HDFC Securities Top Stock Pick In Cement Sector; Q1 Results Preview

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Cement demand in Q1 FY26 has been muted with ~4-5% growth YoY, despite a low base. This is majorly attributed to early onset of monsoon in India this time. HDFC Securities estimates its coverage universe to report 7% YoY volume growth in Q1 FY26.NDTV Profit’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer NDTV Profit’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy. HDFC Securities Institutional EquitiesWe estimate cement demand will pick up FY26E onwards as against subdued offtake in FY25. The recent spur in cement prices in the eastern and southern regions bodes well and could stabilize pricing and margin there, which had reached multi-year lows. We estimate average net sales realisation for our coverage universe will grow at 1.6% CAGR over FY25-27E as against a sharp 6% fall in FY25. Overall opex should continue to decline (we estimate -1.5% CAGR), aided by rising share of low-cost green energy and logistics efficiencies. Thus, we estimate industry unit Ebitda will recover to a ~20- year high of Rs 1,115/MT in FY27E. We maintain earnings estimates and target prices for our coverage universe. We have BUY ratings on UltraTech, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp, JK Lakshmi, and Star Cement. We also maintain Add on Shree Cement, Ambuja Cement, ACC, JK Cement, and Sagar Cements. We have Reduce ratings on Ramco Cements, Heidelberg Cement, Orient Cement, and Deccan Cements. Our top picks: large-cap— UltraTech Cement; mid-cap—JK Lakshmi.Click on the attachment to read the full report:TCS Q1 Results Preview: Muted Growth Seen Amid BSNL Headwinds; Discretionary Outlook, Margin In FocusDISCLAIMERThis report is authored by an external party. NDTV Profit does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of NDTV Profit.Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.. Read more on Research Reports by NDTV Profit.