DAVID GELLES2025年7月9日周二，得克萨斯州森特波因特发生灾难性洪灾后，搜救队在瓜达卢佩河沿岸地区进行搜救。 Loren Elliott for The New York TimesThe floods that ravaged Texas last week, leaving more than 105 people dead, occurred in a region known as Flash Flood Alley. And while the storm developed quickly, the National Weather Service offered what appears to have been a relatively good forecast in a rapidly developing situation, according to former Weather Service officials.上周肆虐得克萨斯州的洪水造成超过105人死亡，灾情发生在一个被称为“暴洪巷”的地区。据前美国国家气象局官员说，虽然风暴发展迅速，但国家气象局在瞬息万变的情势下似乎提供了相对较好的预报。But despite known risks in the area and warnings that were first issued around midnight Thursday, the floods became one of the deadliest weather events in recent American history.但是，尽管该地区存在已知的风险，并且周四午夜左右首次发布了警告，这次洪水仍然成为美国近代历史上最致命的天气事件之一。How did that happen?为什么会这样？It’s too early to say with certainty that the slow-moving thunderstorms were made worse by man-made climate change. But the weather pattern that unleashed more than 10 inches of rain in a matter of hours is precisely the kind of phenomenon that scientists say is becoming more common because of global warming.现在断言缓慢移动的雷暴是由于人为气候变化而加剧还为时过早。但科学家们说，这种在几小时内降雨量超过25厘米的天气模式，正是由于全球变暖而变得越来越普遍的一种现象。“The atmosphere is like a giant sponge,” said Arsum Pathak, director of adaptation and coastal resilience at the National Wildlife Federation. “As the air gets warmer, which is what’s been happening because of climate change, the sponge can hold a lot more water. And then when there’s a storm, the same sponge can squeeze out way more water than it used to.”“大气就像一块巨大的海绵，”美国国家野生动物联合会适应和沿海恢复能力主任阿萨姆·帕塔克说。“随着气候变化所导致的空气升温，海绵可以容纳更多的水。然后当有风暴时，同样的海绵可以挤出比以前更多的水。”Storms are becoming more intense风暴越来越猛烈President Trump, thus far, has avoided casting blame for the storm’s death toll, and called the floods “a hundred-year catastrophe” in remarks to reporters on Sunday.到目前为止，特朗普总统还没有将风暴造成的死亡归咎于谁，并在周日对记者的讲话中称这场洪水是“百年一遇的灾难”。But Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, said the research showed that as the planet warmed, sudden outbursts of extreme precipitation were becoming more powerful.但加州大学的气候科学家丹尼尔·斯温说，研究表明，随着地球变暖，极端降水的突然爆发变得越来越剧烈。In data that goes back to 1910, nine of the top 10 extreme one-day precipitation events have occurred since 1995, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.根据美国环境保护署的数据，1910年以来的数据显示，十大极端单日降水事件中有九起发生在1995年以后。“These precipitation extremes — heavy downpours of rain, essentially — have already increased in most of the U.S.,” Swain said. “And, indeed, in most of the world. That is a confirmed observation about what has already happened in response to the warming that has already occurred.”“这些极端降水——基本上是倾盆大雨——在美国大部分地区增加了，”斯温说。“事实上，世界上大多数地方都是如此。这是对已经发生的气候变暖所导致的结果的确认。”The forecast and the warnings天气预报和警报The storms that unleashed the floods developed quickly as a large area of tropical moisture moved in over central Texas.随着一大片热带水汽进入得克萨斯州中部，引发洪水的风暴迅速发展。While the National Weather Service delivered what experts said was a pretty accurate forecast of the emerging threat, many people in harm’s way during the Texas floods did not receive any warnings.虽然国家气象局发布了专家们认为相当准确的新威胁预报，但在得克萨斯州洪水期间，许多处于危险中的人没有收到任何警告。Part of the problem may have stemmed from staffing shortages at weather offices in Texas, according to former National Weather Service employees who spoke to Christopher Flavelle. On the ground, that meant “the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.”据前国家气象局雇员对克里斯托弗·弗拉维尔说，部分问题可能源于得克萨斯州气象办公室的人员短缺。在现场，这意味着“失去了经验丰富的人，这些人通常会在一夜之间发布山洪警报后的几个小时内帮助与地方当局沟通”。Another contributing factor may have been the lack of a flash flood warning system along the banks of the Guadalupe River. Officials considered installing such a system eight years ago, but ultimately decided against it, The Times reported.另一个促成因素可能是瓜达卢佩河沿岸缺乏山洪预警系统。据时报报道，官员们在八年前就考虑过建立这样的系统，但最终决定不建。But it’s also the case that even good forecasts have their limitations.但事实上，即使是再准确的预测也有其局限性。“It’s not possible to give extreme precipitation forecast with pinpoint accuracy hours or days in advance,” Swain said. “That’s beyond what is scientifically possible to offer.”“提前数小时或数天精确预报极端降水是不可能的，”斯温说。“这超出了科学可能提供的范围。”Instead, as the world keeps warming and extreme rain events become more powerful, it will be necessary for vulnerable communities to prepare for the perils of a hotter planet.相反，随着世界持续变暖，极端降雨事件变得更加强大，脆弱的社区有必要为地球变热的危险做好准备。‘Flood, rebuild, repeat’“洪水，重建，周而复始”One reason the floods were so deadly is that the affected area, known as the Texas Hill Country, has very thin topsoil, an impermeable limestone bed, steep canyons and narrow valleys.洪水如此致命的一个原因是，被称为得克萨斯山地的受灾地区表土非常薄，石灰岩床不透水，有陡峭的峡谷和狭窄的山谷。“It’s a recipe for flash flooding,” said Pathak, who is also a member of Texas Living Waters, a coalition of conservation groups that works on issues including climate change and flooding in the area. “It might have been a puddle in other parts of the country, but it became a really dangerous storm here, and it happened within a matter of minutes.”“这是引发山洪暴发的原因，”帕塔克说，他也是得克萨斯州活水组织的成员，该组织是一个保护组织联盟，致力于解决该地区的气候变化和洪水等问题。“在这个国家的其他地方，都可能只是形成一个水坑，但它在这里变成了一场非常危险的风暴，而且发生在几分钟内。”Some measures that could help the Hill Country adapt, she said, included restoring creek banks with native plants and grasses, planting more trees and increasing permeable areas, all of which could help absorb rainfall and slow rising floodwaters. As The Times reported this week, Texas has a growing backlog of flood management projects, totaling some $54 billion across the state.她说，有一些措施可以帮助丘陵地区适应气候变化，包括在河岸上种植本地植物和草，种植更多的树木，增加可渗透的面积，所有这些都有助于吸收降雨，减缓洪水的上涨。正如《纽约时报》本周报道的那样，得克萨斯州积压的洪水管理项目越来越多，全州总计约540亿美元。“Too much of our disaster strategy in general is very reactive in nature,” Pathak said. “It is time to replace that loop of ‘flood, rebuild, repeat’ with more forward-looking investments that keep people out of harm’s way.”“总的来说，我们的灾难策略有太多是反应性的，”帕塔克说。“现在是时候用更具前瞻性的投资来取代‘洪水、重建，周而复始’的循环，让人们远离伤害。”David Gelles报道气候变化，也是《纽约时报》"Climate Forward"新闻简报和相关活动的负责人。翻译：晋其角点击查看完整版英文新闻简报。